FA Cup holders Manchester United host Fulham for a place in the quarter-finals. We look ahead to their fifth-round clash with our Man Utd vs Fulham prediction and preview.
Man Utd vs Fulham Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer makes Manchester United favourites to overcome Fulham, with the Red Devils given a 45.3% chance of victory inside 90 minutes. Man Utd have progressed from their last nine FA Cup ties against Fulham since a 2-1 quarter-final defeat in 1908, most recently winning a quarter-final clash in 2022-23. Bruno Fernandes has been involved in 11 goals in his last 11 FA Cup games, scoring seven and assisting four. He netted twice when Man Utd last faced Fulham in the competition.Manchester United have endured a historically bad campaign in the Premier League, with Ruben Amorim failing to inspire anything resembling a new manager bounce.
They are on course for their lowest league finish since they were last relegated in 1973-74, despite digging deep with 10 men to beat Ipswich Town 3-2 in midweek.
But United have recent history of turning up in the FA Cup, having lifted the trophy under Erik ten Hag while recording their worst-ever Premier League finish last season.
On Sunday, they host in-form Fulham in the last 16 of the cup, looking to reach the quarter-finals for the 10th time in the last 11 seasons. The Red Devils have progressed from each of their last 14 FA Cup fifth-round ties since losing 1-0 to Liverpool in 2006.
They ground out a valuable victory over Ipswich on Wednesday, with Harry Maguire heading in a second-half winner despite United playing over half the game with 10 men as a result of Patrick Dorgu’s horror lunge on Omari Hutchinson.
After that game, Amorim was asked if his players are more comfortable defending deep than when taking the initiative, responding: “It is really hard for me to play like we played in the second half, but I feel the players are more comfortable sometimes defending in a low block.”
The stats bear that out. United have enjoyed over 50% possession in 11 domestic matches under Amorim, only winning three of those games while drawing two and losing six, giving them a 27.3% win rate.
In the eight such games where United have had less than 50% possession, they have recorded three wins, two draws and three defeats for a marginally better win rate of 37.5%. One of those draws resulted in a penalty shoot-out triumph over Arsenal in the FA Cup third round.
While United are unlikely to intentionally cede possession against Fulham, their best bet could be remaining solid and relying on their star attackers to come up with the goods.
Captain Bruno Fernandes has been involved in 11 goals in his last 11 appearances in the FA Cup, scoring seven and assisting four.
He has only failed to register a goal or an assist in two of these 11 games, and the Portugal midfielder scored twice when United last met Fulham in the FA Cup, rallying to win 3-1 in the 2022-23 quarter-finals.
Alejandro Garnacho, meanwhile, made headlines by heading straight down the tunnel after being substituted in midweek, and it remains to be seen if he will start on Sunday.
Despite having 42 shots worth a total of 4.91 expected goals (xG), Garnacho’s only goal under Amorim in any competition came in November’s 3-2 Europa League win over Bodø/Glimt, and he has since gone 20 games without scoring in all competitions.
When United and Fulham last met in the FA Cup, Marco Silva’s men led 1-0 with 15 minutes to play and were on course to reach the semi-finals for just the second time in their history.
However, Willian’s handball to concede a penalty brought about a complete capitulation, which started with the Brazilian being sent off. Silva’s touchline protests ensured he also saw red, then Aleksandar Mitrović pushed referee Chris Kavanagh and swiftly joined them. When order was restored, Fernandes tucked home from the spot, with United going on to win 3-1.
Demoralising defeats to United are nothing new for Fulham, who have won just one of their last 21 meetings across all competitions (D3 L17). The Red Devils have beaten them 1-0 twice already this season, on the opening Premier League matchday at Old Trafford, then at Craven Cottage just one month ago.
But Fulham will approach this game in high spirits, with their victory at Wolves making it five wins in their last six away games in all competitions, including the last four in a row.
Silva showcased his tactical flexibility at Molineux, as regular starters Antonee Robinson, Raúl Jiménez, Calvin Bassey and Alex Iwobi were rotated with one eye on Sunday’s fixture.
Defending a 2-1 lead in the second half, Fulham enjoyed just 33% of the possession after dropping into a compact 5-3-2, yet they still won the xG battle by 0.95 to 0.49, making far more of their 20 final-third entries than Wolves did of their 48.
Having taken the chance to give his stars a rest, Silva will be confident of earning a measure of revenge.
Left-back Robinson will be key to Fulham’s hopes. His total of 10 Premier League assists this season is at least four more than any other defender, with Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold recording six.
Among all defenders in the top flight, the United States international also ranks second for open-play chances created (35), third for successful crosses (36) and third for progressive carries of 10 yards or more (112).
Man Utd vs Fulham Head-to-Head
United have progressed from their last nine FA Cup ties against Fulham since suffering a 2-1 quarter-final defeat in 1908.
This is the fourth time Fulham are facing the holders of the FA Cup in the competition, being eliminated on each of the previous three occasions (5-4 versus Newcastle United in 1955-56, 2-1 against West Brom in 1968-69 and 4-0 versus Manchester City in 2019-20).
The visitors are looking to make the last eight for the second time in three years, having beaten Leeds United 2-0 at this stage in 2022-23.
Man Utd won both Premier League fixtures this season between the two teams 1-0.
Man Utd vs Fulham Prediction
United are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to progress, with the Red Devils assigned a 45.3% chance of victory inside 90 minutes.
That means Fulham are given a 54.7% chance of either winning or taking the tie to extra time and potentially penalties. They are assigned a 27.8% chance of victory, with the likelihood of a draw rated at 26.9%.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Man Utd vs Fulham Prediction: FA Cup Fifth Round Opta Analyst.
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