Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca has been asked repeatedly in recent times about the form of Cole Palmer. But he’s really not been as ineffective as some are making out.
Cole Palmer has quickly become one of the Premier League’s standout players over the past 18 months or so since leaving Manchester City for Chelsea. Not only has he been a huge creative influence for the Blues, he’s also scored more goals for the club than any other player over that time.
But that’s what makes his recent barren run all the more surprising.
After firing blanks again in Tuesday’s 4-0 win over Southampton, the England international now hasn’t scored a Premier League goal since 14 January, and he last set one up on 1 December.
Of course, goals and assists as metrics don’t tell the whole story of a player’s impact. Ange Postecoglou said just this week that the assist is the “most useless statistic in world football”; although we can almost certainly think of metrics that are less useful, his sentiment is understandable.
His point was that a player could inadvertently touch the ball with their backside and then a teammate scores from the halfway line, giving them an assist despite not actually doing anything bar having their posterior in the right place at the right time. While an unlikely scenario, it is strictly possible, and you could arguably make a comparable point about goals.
But when you are so used to seeing someone score or set up teammates deliberately on a regular basis, reflecting their attacking quality as a player, it’s difficult not to notice when the goals or assists suddenly stop.
Palmer’s runs of 14 league games without an assist and six without a goal are his leanest spells in a Chelsea shirt.
His coach Enzo Maresca insists he’s not worried, and Palmer said “don’t worry, I’ll be back” on Instagram after the win over Saints.
So, what’s going on?
There’s obviously quite a lot to unpack here, but we’ll start with some fairly top-line numbers to get an idea of how his broader output has changed – if it has at all.
In terms of Palmer’s habits in front of goal since he last scored on 14 January, his shot count on a per-90-minute basis has actually increased from 3.6 to 3.9.
Of course, a month and a half worth of data is a fairly small sample size, and that’s something we’ll have to bear in mind throughout when looking specifically at his form since 14 January. However, his output here at least suggests the drought isn’t simply down to a lack of attempts.
Furthermore, his 1.9 shots from inside the box per 90 is exactly the same rate as before. Granted, it is a smaller proportion of his total attempts in recent weeks, but even then it’s not a drastic change. Similarly, his touches in the opposition’s box has actually gone up from 4.0 per 90 to 4.7.
He’s still seeing plenty of the ball in dangerous areas and averaging the same number of shots inside the box, then. But even though Palmer’s average shot count has increased, his non-penalty expected goals (xG) per 90 has come down slightly from 0.46 to 0.41; this reflects how the average xG value of his non-penalty shots has decreased to 0.11 from 0.13.
That may not sound like much, but it essentially means the average quality of the chances he’s been presented with since 15 January is slightly lower than beforehand.
So, that’s something to note, but those attempts have still been worth 2.4 xG, meaning his xG underperformance of 2.4 is comfortably the worst in the Premier League since 15 January, with Wolves’ Marshall Munetsi (1.5 xG underperformance) next on that list.
We can dig into the xG data even further, however.
xGOT (that’s expected goals on target, not anything Game of Thrones-related) measures the likelihood of an on-target shot resulting in a goal, based on the underlying xG value and the end location of the shot within the goalmouth. Therefore, it gives more credit to shots that are bound for the corners of the goal as opposed to down the middle.
So, a player whose xGOT exceeds their xG is executing shots that are of a better quality than the underlying value of the chance that attempt came from. For instance, a chance might be worth 0.1 xG, but if the player finds one of the top corners then the xGOT value might be, say, 0.8, because the end point of the attempt is so hard for the goalkeeper to reach. We call the cumulative difference between xGOT and xG ‘shooting goals added’.
While Palmer’s xGOT and xG match up perfectly at 11.78 each prior to his recent barren run, since 15 January they are 1.57 and 2.43, respectively. This equates to -0.86 shooting goals added, which suggests wasteful finishing has been at play.
Again, it’s a small sample size so this can be impacted considerably by even just a couple of shots, and it’s not a metric without caveats (it doesn’t take blocked shots into consideration, for example), but only six players have poorer records in this respect since mid-January.
Some of Palmer’s creative numbers – beyond ‘assists’ – have reduced as well.
Until 1 December last year, he was averaging 2.4 chances created in open play in the Premier League this season; since then, that figure stands at 1.7. It comes down even further to 0.8 across the past six games, which presumably reflects a recent greater focus on trying to score.
We can use a couple of additional metrics to dig a little deeper here, though.
xG assisted measures the xG value of shots taken following chance-creating passes. Palmer’s total xG assisted of 2.7 in open play since 2 December is the 12th highest in the Premier League; it equates to 0.2 per 90, which is joint 27th among players to feature for at least 270 minutes in that time.
However, Palmer’s open-play expected assists (xA) of 3.4 over that period is second only to Mohamed Salah, and on a per-90 basis he ranks joint eighth (0.24). The difference between the two metrics is that xA measures the value of the pass even if the receiver doesn’t ultimately get a shot away, therefore providing a reflection of how consistently a player finds teammates in dangerous positions without the output ultimately being impacted by an inefficient teammate.
A potential explanation for the discrepancy between the two metrics could be a couple of absences. Palmer’s formed strong on-field relationships with Nicolas Jackson and Noni Madueke, but both have spent time out.
Jackson’s missed almost a month of action, while Madueke was ruled out for a few weeks in December and has also been absent for the past two games. Neither are expected back until April.
The fact Palmer’s xG assisted is lower than his xA over the time in question could be an indication of Chelsea’s other forwards struggling to make the most of Palmer’s service. After all, Christopher Nkunku in particular came under scrutiny prior to getting a goal and an assist on Wednesday, and it stands to reason that players other than Jackson and Madueke might not be on the same wavelength as Palmer simply by virtue of not playing with him as often.
There could also be clues in the positions Palmer is taking up possession, with the below heat maps showing he has been operating slightly more towards the centre over the past three months than he was prior to 2 December.
It’s also worth acknowledging how Palmer has become more involved for Chelsea in build-up.
Prior to 2 December, he played a part in 6.4 open-play shot-ending attacking sequences per 90, and 1.4 of those would be concentrated to build-up play (rather than being the player to have the shot or create the chance). Since, however, his total sequence involvements per 90 has shot up to 7.5, and 2.2 relate to instances of him contributing solely to the build-up.
On top of that, before 2 December, he recorded just eight secondary chances created – the pass before the pass that sets up a chance – at a rate of 0.6 per 90. But since then his figures in that regard have reached 18 in total, ranking him joint third, and 1.3 on a per-90 basis.
One way of looking at all of this is to say that Palmer’s output hasn’t exactly dried up. He’s still getting shots away; he’s still creating opportunities for teammates; he’s still offering a threat with his use of the ball; and he’s actually more involved generally than he was before.
There almost certainly isn’t one single answer to his drought. Confidence probably plays a part somewhere down the line – perhaps that’s impacted his finishing, or maybe the search to regain that belief is causing him to shoot more often (and more rashly) than before.
Variance is another factor. For instance, Palmer’s zero assists from 3.4 xA in open play since 2 December might be disappointing, but before that he’d managed six assists from 2.0 xA in open play, going from an overperformance of 4.0 to an underperformance of 3.4 that isn’t far off balancing out.
The point is, Palmer’s form would be far more concerning if he wasn’t contributing anything, but he clearly still is.
Sure, certain aspects of his game might have dipped or changed slightly, but what attacking player doesn’t go through such patches every once in a while? Salah’s on course for probably the greatest individual season in Premier League history this term, but even he faced accusations of being in decline as recently as 2023-24.
Palmer is enduring the first proper barren run of his career, but the underlying numbers of his contributions aren’t exactly worrying. If he embraces the learning curve it potentially represents, he could come out the other side a more mature and complete player.
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Cole Palmer Goes Cold Turkey: Why Chelsea Needn’t Worry About Their Talisman’s Barren Run Opta Analyst.
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