The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing tees off with the 2025 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, and it’s shaping up to be a wild one at PGA National’s Champion Course. Happening February 27 to March 2, this $9.2 million event brings a solid field to a brutal track known for chewing up scorecards. With water on 15 of 18 holes and the infamous Bear Trap lurking on the back nine, it’s a test of grit as much as skill. Among the betting options, two names stand out: Russell Henley and Davis Thompson. Let’s break down why these guys are worth your attention, dive into their odds, and explore what makes them smart picks for this week.
Check out Round 1 tee times
Why Russell Henley’s a Safe Bet
Russell Henley rolls into the Cognizant Classic at +2200 odds on DraftKings, tied with Sungjae Im and Sepp Straka behind favorite Shane Lowry at +2000. That’s a little under a 5% implied probability of winning, but Henley’s game screams value here. Sitting 17th in the Official World Golf Ranking, he’s been a model of consistency lately, notching top-10 finishes in two of his last three starts. Sure, he hasn’t won since 2022, but his track record at PGA National is hard to ignore—three top-20s since 2019, including a T-41 last year that’s more of a blip than a trend.
What makes Henley a good look on a course like this? His precision. PGA National demands accuracy over distance, and Henley’s one of the tour’s best at keeping it in play. He ranks 23rd in driving accuracy this season at 67.86%, a big edge on a course where water hazards punish wild swings. His short game’s no slouch either—11th in scrambling at 68.75%—which is clutch for surviving the Bear Trap’s par-3 gauntlet. Stats-wise, he’s averaged 1.48 true strokes gained per round across 20 career rounds here. At +2200, he’s not just a contender; he’s a bargain for an outright win or a top-5 prop (+400).
Davis Thompson: The Longshot With Legs
Then there’s Davis Thompson, a 25-year-old American flying under the radar at +4000 odds—implying just a 2.44% chance to take the title. Don’t sleep on him, though. Thompson’s been quietly building momentum in 2025. After a slow start, he managed a nice finish at the WMPO and ended up T13 at the Genesis.
Thompson’s a statistical darling for PGA National. He’s 14th in greens in regulation (75.00%) and 5th in bogey avoidance, critical on a layout where par is your friend. His length off the tee—averaging 305.2 yards (top 20 on tour)—lets him attack the par-5s and shorten some of the trickier par-4s. Plus, he is familiar with southeastern courses, having grown up and attending school in Georgia. Familiarity with Bermuda greens and windy conditions could give him an edge. At +4000, he’s a juicy longshot, and his +650 top-5 odds are tempting too.
Feb 16, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; Davis Thompson hits his tee shot on the second hole during the final round of The Genesis Invitational golf tournament at Torrey Pines. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn ImagesThe Field and the Course: What’s at Stake
The Cognizant Classic isn’t a signature event, but it’s no pushover. Defending champ Austin Eckroat (+5000) aims to repeat—a feat only Jack Nicklaus pulled off here (1977-78). Lowry (+2000), a local resident with three straight top-5s at PGA National, leads the betting pack, while Jordan Spieth (+4000) makes his debut fresh off wrist surgery. The 7,167-yard, par-71 Champion Course, tweaked this year with the 10th hole flipping to a par-5, has a history of tight finishes—winning scores since 2010 range from 6-under to 17-under. Wind and water mean survival trumps heroics, favoring Henley’s steadiness and Thompson’s all-around game.
How They Stack Up Against the Favorites
Lowry’s the headliner, and for good reason—he’s averaged 1.51 true strokes gained per round across 28 career rounds here. But his +2000 odds are tight compared to Henley’s value. Straka (+2200), the 2022 champ, has a win this year at The American Express, but a missed cut at Genesis raises questions. Im (+2200) won in 2020, though his form’s been spotty lately. Henley’s consistency and Thompson’s upside make them stand out in a field where favorites don’t always seal the deal—only one top-5 betting choice has won here in the last five years.
For a full course preview, check out Ron Klos’ thoughts at Betsperts Golf.
The 17th tee of The Bear Trap at the Cognizant Classic of the Palm Beaches at PGA National on February 21, 2025, in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.Responsible Gambling and Bankroll Management
Before you fire off bets on Henley or Thompson, let’s talk cash. Golf betting’s a blast, but it’s easy to get carried away with longshots and props. Set a budget—say, 1-2% of your fun money per wager—and stick to it. For a $100 bankroll, that’s $1-$2 per bet, keeping you in the game without breaking the bank. Spread your action across outcomes: an outright win on Henley, a top-10 on Thompson, maybe a matchup or two. Don’t chase losses—PGA National’s unpredictable, and even the best picks can sink in the Bear Trap. If it stops being fun, hit pause and call 1-800-GAMBLER for help.
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