The Cubs came back to beat the Rangers yesterday at Sloan Park, making them 4-0 on the Cactus League season. Clearly, the 2025 Cubs are destined for greatness.
I kid, obviously, but it’s not like it’s bad that the Cubs keep winning these games.
But does it actually mean anything positive?
Although there are some very, very, very slight correlations between player performance in the spring and the regular season (and, even then, really only for certain kinds of players – mostly relievers and bench types vying for roster spots), there are almost no real or meaningful correlations between team records in the spring and in the regular season. This study had the winning percentage R² at just 0.05, and the run differential R² at just 0.06 – meaning that, at most, 5-6% of the variance you see in a team’s record or run differential might be predicted by what you saw them accomplish in the spring.
To put that in context, the same study noted that projection systems tend to have more like a 0.30 R² for winning percentage and run differential, which is a massive difference (and even that means a whole lot of in-season variance in performance can’t be predicted in advance!).
It’s not hard to understand why Spring Training team results would be almost entirely uncorrelated with the regular season: in a lot of ways that matter, Spring Training baseball is like a completely different sport. The teams are using tons of players they wouldn’t otherwise use. They are limiting their regulars. They are focused on health and gearing up for the season, not winning games. The sample is small, and the schedule is funky.
It’s fine to enjoy the highlights anyway:
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