2025 NHL Mock Draft: Blackhawks Take Schaefer, Martone falls to Buffalo ...Middle East

Using the Tankathon simulator, we see another “upset”, with the Chicago Blackhawks taking the top spot this week! San Jose ends up second with Nashville grabbing the third spot, so nothing too crazy in this simulated NHL draft lottery.

Current Lottery Probabilities

(good as of the morning of February 21st, 2025)

San Jose 25.5%Chicago 13.5%Nashville 11.5%Buffalo 9.5%Seattle 8.5%Philadelphia 7.5%Pittsburgh 6.5%St. Louis 6%Montreal 5%Anaheim 3.5%Utah 3%NY Islanders 0%NY Rangers 0%

2025 NHL Mock Draft: February 21st, 2025

1. Chicago

Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)

Still sticking with Schaefer as the top pick until we hear otherwise. He’s a highly touted two-way defenseman known for his elite skating, hockey sense, and ability to seamlessly transition between offense and defense. Despite setbacks due to illness and injury, scouts remain confident in Schaefer’s high-end potential and project him as a future franchise defenseman capable of playing in all situations.

2. San Jose

Roger McQueen, C, Brandon (WHL)

McQueen is a physically imposing center/right wing prospect for the 2025 NHL Draft, blending size, skill, and potential. McQueen excels at net-front presence, possesses a quick shot release, and demonstrates a strong two-way game, including a notable performance at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup. While his skating and puck skills need refinement, his combination of size and offensive tools projects him as a valuable middle-six NHL center with top-line upside.

3. Nashville

Anton Frondell, C, Djurgården (J20)

Frondell is a highly skilled, two-way forward prospect with a complete 200-foot game, boasting dynamic puck skills and a dangerous shot. After overcoming early-season injuries, Frondell has returned to form and projects as a top-10 pick, drawing comparisons to Nick Suzuki for his intelligence and versatility.

4. Buffalo

Porter Martone, RW, Brampton (OHL)

Combining elite offensive skills with imposing size and physicality, he’s one of the top forwards in the draft. Martone possesses a lethal wrist shot, exceptional hands, and creative playmaking abilities, making him a dominant offensive force. While consistency and defensive play need refinement, his raw talent and potential project him as a top-5 pick.

Michael Misa (Photo Credit: Dan Hickling/Hickling Images

5. Seattle

Michael Misa, C, Saginaw (OHL).

Misa is a dynamic offensive center/winger prospect with elite skating, exceptional hockey sense, and advanced puck skills. Projected as a top-5 pick, Misa’s offensive prowess and versatility draw comparisons to Brayden Point, though he needs to improve his 5-on-5 consistency and physical play to reach his full potential.

6. Philadelphia

James Hagens, C, Boston College (NTDP)

James Hagens is an elite offensive talent and top prospect for the 2025 NHL Draft, known for his high-end hockey IQ, exceptional puck skills, and creative playmaking. His shifty skating and quick decision-making make him a dynamic offensive catalyst, projecting as a top-ten pick despite needing to improve his strength and consistency.

7. Pittsburgh

Victor Eklund, LW, Djurgården (HA)

Eklund is a dynamic, high-motor winger prospect with elite skating, high-end creativity, and goal-scoring instincts. His offensive prowess and relentless compete level project him as a potential first-rounder, though he needs to refine his defensive play and puck management to really contribute at the next level.

8. St. Louis

William Moore, C, U18 (NTDP)

Moore is an offensively driven center prospect with elite puck-handling, vision, and a knack for scoring. While his defensive game and consistency need development, Moore’s offensive potential and size project him as a potential first-round pick.

William Moore (Photo Credit: Dan Hickling/Hickling Images)

9. Montreal

Cole Reschny, C, Victoria (WHL)

Reschny is a smart, two-way center prospect with high hockey IQ, smooth passing, and a strong work ethic. While skating and strength need improvement, Reschny’s well-rounded game and consistent impact project him as a strong first-round pick.

10. Anaheim

Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)

Maybe the best skater in this class, Jackson Smith is also blessed with defensive reliability, and high hockey IQ. While his offensive game needs refinement, Smith’s combination of size, mobility, and poise projects him as a future top-four NHL defenseman.

11. Utah

Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)

12. NY Islanders

Caleb Desnoyers, C, Moncton (QJMHL)

13. Boston

Ivan Ryabkin, C, Dynamo Moscow (MHL)

14. Pittsburgh (via NY Rangers)

Malcolm Spence, LW, Erie (OHL)

Malcolm Spence of the Erie Otters. Photo by Natalie Shaver/OHL Images

15. Columbus

Milton Gastrin, C, Modo (J20)

16. Montreal (via Calgary)

Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)

17. Ottawa

Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston U (NCAA)

18. Detroit

Radim Mrtka, D, Trinec (Czechia)

19. Vancouver

Cameron Schmidt, RW, Vancouver (WHL)

20. Calgary (via NJ)

Justin Carbonneau, RW, Blainville-Boisbriand (QJMHL)

21. Philadelphia (via Colorado)

Alex Huang, D, Chicoutimi (QJMHL)

22. Nashville (via Tampa)

Pyotr Andreyanov, G, CSKA (MHL)

23. Los Angeles

Kurban Limatov, D, Dynamo Moscow (MHL)

24. Chicago (via Toronto)

Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)

25. Columbus (via Minnesota)

Alex Huang, D, Chicoutimi (QJMHL)

26. Carolina

Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)

27. Nashville (via Vegas)

Charlie Trethewey, D, U18 (NTDP)

28. San Jose (via Dallas)

Brady Martin, C, Soo (OHL)

29. Calgary (via Florida)

Luka Radivojevic, D, Muskegon (USHL)

30. Philadelphia (via Edmonton)

Adam Benak, C, Youngstown (USHL)

31. Winnipeg

Jakob Ihs Wozniak, RW, Lulea (J20)

32. Washington

L.J. Mooney, C, U18 (NTDP)

The NHL Draft Lottery: A Guide to How It Works

The NHL Entry Draft is a crucial event for all NHL teams, offering the opportunity to select the best young talent available. But the order in which teams get to pick isn’t determined simply by their regular season record. That’s where the NHL Draft Lottery comes in, adding an element of chance and excitement to the process. This article explains how it works.

Determining Lottery Teams

The lottery involves the 16 teams that missed the playoffs in the preceding season. The odds of winning the lottery, and thus the right to the first overall pick, are weighted based on each team’s regular season record. The team with the fewest points has the best odds, while the team with the most points among the non-playoff teams has the lowest odds.

The Lottery Draw

The actual lottery drawing is a somewhat secretive process overseen by an independent accounting firm. Fourteen numbered balls are placed in a machine. Four balls are drawn randomly, and the four-digit combination they create is matched against pre-assigned combinations for each of the 16 teams. This process is repeated to determine the order of the top two picks. The remaining draft order (picks 3 through 16) is then determined by reverse order of regular season points, with the lowest-placed team getting the third pick, and so on.

Odds and Probabilities

As mentioned, the odds of winning the lottery are weighted. The team finishing with the fewest points in the regular season has the highest percentage chance of winning the first overall pick. The odds decrease incrementally for each team based on their standing in the standings. It’s important to note that even the team with the best odds doesn’t have a guaranteed shot at the first pick. There’s always an element of chance involved, and any of the 16 teams could theoretically win the lottery.

Changes to the Lottery System

The NHL has tweaked the lottery system over the years to address concerns about teams deliberately tanking games to improve their draft odds. One significant change was the implementation of a system where only the top two picks are determined by the lottery. This change was meant to make it so a team could not guarantee itself a top 3 pick. This reduces the incentive to finish last, as that only guarantees the best odds of getting one of the top two picks.

Why Have a Lottery?

The primary purpose of the NHL Draft Lottery is to create parity within the league. By giving the weaker teams a chance to draft top prospects, the lottery helps prevent the stronger teams from dominating year after year. It also adds excitement and unpredictability to the draft process, making it a more engaging event for fans. The lottery encourages teams to compete hard throughout the season, rather than simply giving up when playoff contention becomes unlikely.

Understanding the Implications

The NHL Draft Lottery has significant implications for the future of NHL franchises. Landing a top pick can be a franchise-altering event, allowing teams to acquire generational talents who can transform their fortunes for years to come. The lottery adds an element of drama and anticipation to the draft, making it one of the most important off-season events in the NHL calendar. While some fans may debate the fairness of the system, it remains a key component of the league’s efforts to maintain competitive balance and keep the league exciting.

The NHL Entry Draft: From Territorial Claims to Global Scouting

The NHL Entry Draft, a crucial event for building a franchise, has a history as dynamic as the sport itself. It wasn’t always the televised spectacle we know today. Its evolution reflects the changing landscape of hockey, from regional dominance to global talent acquisition.

Early Days: Territorial Rights and a Simple Process

The early drafts were a far cry from the modern event. Initially, teams claimed junior players within their geographic territories. This system, while simple, often limited opportunities for players outside those designated areas. Formalized drafting began in 1963, but it was a relatively low-key affair. Teams often selected players they were already familiar with, and the process lacked the intense scouting and analysis that characterizes today’s draft. The focus was less on identifying hidden gems and more on solidifying existing regional connections. These early drafts were more about maintaining the status quo than strategically building for the future. There was no lottery, no complex scouting systems, and little fanfare.

Evolution and Global Expansion

Over the decades, the draft evolved significantly. A pivotal moment came in 1995 with the introduction of a lottery system. Initially weighted towards the worst-performing teams, the lottery aimed to create parity and discourage “tanking” for top picks. This added a layer of excitement and unpredictability, making the draft a more compelling event for fans. The draft also expanded its scope to include players from all over the world, reflecting the increasing globalization of hockey.

No longer were teams limited to North American talent; they now had access to a wider pool of players from Europe, Russia, and beyond. This global expansion necessitated the development of more sophisticated scouting networks as teams sought to identify and evaluate talent from diverse leagues and playing styles. The draft has grown from a simple selection process to a major event, complete with extensive media coverage, prospect rankings, and intense scrutiny. It’s a crucial moment for teams to build their future and for young players to realize their dreams. The NHL Entry Draft, though its origins are humble, is now a vital part of the league’s landscape, shaping the future of the game one pick at a time.

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