The recent announcement regarding asteroid 2024 YR4 has raised significant concerns among scientists and the general public alike. With a calculated probability of 3.1% for impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, this figure represents the highest risk ever recorded for an asteroid of its size . Discovered in December 2023, asteroid 2024 YR4 measures approximately 130-300 feet in length, positioning it as a potential city-killer should it strike a populated area. While the odds remain low, they have markedly increased from an initial estimate of roughly 1 in 83 . This shift underscores the importance of ongoing monitoring and analysis to better understand such celestial threats.
The asteroid, big enough to wipe out an entire city, now has a higher chance of smashing into our home planet in 2032, according to NASA.
In a new update, the space agency has increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, with the probability of impact rising to 3.1 per cent or one-in-32 odds of impact — the highest probability of a collision yet.
This is the highest risk assessment an asteroid has ever received, after the 2.7 per cent chance of Apophis hitting in 2004.
Astronomers estimate its size to be between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 metres) wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of its light signatures suggests it has a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a worldwide planetary defence collaboration, issued a warning memo on January 29 after the impact probability had crossed one percent. Since then, the figure has fluctuated but continues to trend upward.
NASA's latest calculations estimate the impact probability at 3.1 percent, with a potential Earth impact date of December 22, 2032.
About 3,000 new near-Earth objects are found each year, but it’s been more difficult to find asteroids within the size range of 2024 YR4 because they’re dark, smaller and harder to spot with telescopes. Scientists estimate that there are about 600,000 rocky objects similar in size to the asteroid, but only about 2%, or 12,000, have been found, according to the ESA.
Despite its relatively small size compared to other asteroids capable of global devastation, the potential localized damage from a direct hit cannot be underestimated. As NASA and ESA continue tracking YR4’s trajectory with advanced observational tools like the James Webb Space Telescope—expected to provide more precise data starting March 2025—the scientific community remains vigilant. Such vigilance is crucial not only for assessing risks but also for developing mitigation strategies that could protect vulnerable populations from future threats posed by near-Earth objects.
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