We look ahead to Wednesday’s Premier League game at Villa Park with our Aston Villa vs Liverpool prediction and preview. Can Arne Slot’s men extend their lead at the top to 10 points?
Aston Villa vs Liverpool Stats: The Key Insights
Liverpool are favourites to win at Villa Park, doing so in 49.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations. Unai Emery has won just one of his 12 meetings with Liverpool in all competitions (D4 L7), with that sole victory coming in the 2016 UEFA Europa League final. Liverpool are the only team yet to lose away from home in the Premier League this season in 13 matches (W9 D4).Having only played their game in hand over Arsenal last week, Liverpool will not be level on games played with the Gunners for long as they travel to Aston Villa on Wednesday.
This contest has been brought forward due to Liverpool’s involvement in next month’s EFL Cup final against Newcastle United, and gives Arne Slot’s men a chance to go 10 points clear at the top of the Premier League.
They will have a tough task though, visiting a Villa side who have only lost once at home in the league all season. That was their first game at Villa Park in 2024-25, losing 2-0 to Arsenal; since then Unai Emery’s side have gone unbeaten in 12 on home soil (W6 D6).
However, Liverpool remain the only team yet to lose away from home in the Premier League this season in 13 matches (W9 D4). In English top-flight history, on only five occasions has a side avoided defeat in their first 14+ matches on the road from the start of a campaign: Leeds United in 1973-74 (15), Liverpool in 1987-88 (15), Arsenal in 2001-02 (19), Arsenal in 2003-04 (19), and Manchester United in 2020-21 (19).
Villa come into the game off the back of an underwhelming 1-1 draw at home to Ipswich Town, with the visitors playing most of the game a man light after Axel Tuanzebe’s first-half red card on Saturday.
Villa have lost six of their last seven Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table; the exception, however, was their last such home game, beating Arsenal 1-0 in December 2023. They have never won back-to-back home meetings with league leaders in the competition before.
Emery does not have a great record against Liverpool, having won just one of his 12 meetings with them in all competitions (D4 L7), though that was the 2016 UEFA Europa League final, which he won 3-1 with Sevilla. Among opponents Emery has faced 5+ times in his managerial career, his win rate of 8% against Liverpool is the lowest.
The narrative is there for Manchester United loanee Marcus Rashford to put a dent in Liverpool’s title aspirations. The 27-year-old scored five goals in eight home Premier League appearances against Liverpool for United – his highest total of home goals against any side in the competition. Excluding penalties, only Sergio Agüero (7), Thierry Henry (6), and Jamie Vardy (6) have scored more home goals vs Liverpool.
Rashford impressed on his Premier League debut for Villa against Ipswich, and it was his free-kick that came back off the bar for Ollie Watkins to equalise. Only against Brighton (7) and Arsenal (6) has Watkins scored more goals in the Premier League than he has against Liverpool (5), though he has failed to score in his last four games against them.
Following last week’s heartbreaking last-minute draw at Everton, Liverpool just about bounced back against Wolves, winning 2-1 at Anfield on Sunday despite coming under plenty of second-half pressure.
Mohamed Salah’s first-half penalty in that win was his 23rd league goal of the season and 37th goal involvement, but the Egyptian has been even more productive away from home. With 14 goals and nine assists in Liverpool’s 13 away games in the Premier League this season, Salah already has the most ever goal involvements by a player away from home in a single campaign in the competition (23). He is also one assist away from becoming only the third player to create 10+ goals in away games in a Premier League season, after Muzzy Izzet in 2003-04 (10) and Cesc Fàbregas in 2014-15 (11).
As for team news, Boubacar Kamara could miss Villa’s next few games after coming off injured against Ipswich, while Emery is also expected to be without Ross Barkley, Pau Torres, Matty Cash, Amadou Onana and Ezri Konsa for the visit of Liverpool.
Slot confirmed at his press conference on Tuesday that Cody Gakpo will again be absent after he missed the win over Wolves, while Joe Gomez is likely to need surgery on a hamstring injury suffered in the FA Cup defeat at Plymouth Argyle.
Aston Villa vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
Aston Villa have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D2 L11), though that was a convincing 7-2 victory at Villa Park in October 2020.
Liverpool won this season’s reverse fixture at Anfield 2-0 in November, with Darwin Núñez and Salah scoring the goals.
This exact fixture finished 3-3 last season, with the hosts recovering late on from 3-1 down. Liverpool haven’t failed to win consecutive away league games against Villa since December 2004.
The last seven Premier League meetings between these two at Villa Park have produced a total of 33 goals, an average of 4.7 per game. Liverpool have scored at least twice in all seven of these games (20 goals in total).
Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction
Liverpool are favourites to win this one and extend their lead at the top of the Premier League. They beat Aston Villa in 49.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.
A draw cannot be discounted given how difficult Villa have been to defeat on home soil since August, and that result occurs in 23.8% of sims, while the hosts dish out Liverpool’s first league away loss of the season 26.8% of the time.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction Opta Analyst.
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