Coming out of the All-Star break, the Western Conference has been as advertised, putting the Phoenix Suns in a perilous position to make the postseason.
While some of the potential contenders find themselves a lot further down the standings than expected, that has not changed how competitive the conference has been. Oklahoma City’s reign of terror has begun while Memphis’ previous foundation was indeed sturdy enough to pick up where it left off prior to last year’s debacle. Denver has won eight straight and is 25-9 over its last 34 contests, certifying itself amongst the elite again.
Between those three groups and the bottom-dwelling Jazz and Pelicans, it’s going to be an absolute war for three playoff spots and four play-in tickets. The Portland Trail Blazers at 23-32 aren’t quite out of it just yet but have fizzled a bit since going on a run that was going to reinsert them into this dance.
With that in mind, we will run through those nine remaining teams fighting for seven openings and take a look at if they are trending up, down or are in a neutral state as the official stretch run of the season begins.
4. Houston Rockets (34-21): Down
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Two weeks ago, the Rockets would have been exempt from this exercise, but the alarm bells have started ringing with seven losses in their last nine contests. There was reason to believe the statistical profile on offense would catch up with the Rockets eventually and it is doing something rather fierce at the moment.
Houston is tied for 27th in true shooting percentage and a 54.5% assist percentage is by far the worst in the NBA. But because of league-leading offensive rebounding and top-10 turnover rates on both sides of the ball, the Rockets win the math enough for it to not matter, thanks to some terrific defense too.
The offense, however, is starting to drop from the top-10 because of those flaws. Houston’s lack of rhythm and ball movement really rears its head in crunch time, when Jalen Green (33.9 FG%) and Fred VanVleet (28.9 FG%) put up awful efficiency in the clutch. Even though Alperen Sengun was just an All-Star, a lack of “The Guy” for the Rockets to lean on does not bode well for a playoff series.
A 32-14 start made a plunge out of a postseason spot an impossibility. But what looked like such solid positioning for the top-4, let alone top-6, now leaves an opening for someone else.
5. Los Angeles Lakers (32-20): Up?
Since beginning the year 12-11, the Lakers are quietly eighth in offense and fifth in defense for a 20-9 record. The wild card is how much the acquisition of Luka Doncic and sorting through the center rotation will throw off that mojo they had developed.
L.A. split games against Utah with Doncic on the team before the break. In that loss, Austin Reaves was 4-for-15, a player head coach J.J. Redick was previously utilizing more and allowing to initiate more alongside LeBron James. Reaves now has to try to do a different version of the Bradley Beal role and we’ve seen how difficult that can be.
At center, it’s former Suns No. 5 pick Alex Len, former lottery pick Jaxson Hayes, former Arizona Wildcat Christian Koloko and former Summer Sun Trey Jemison III. Again, to relate this to Phoenix, we’ve seen how debilitating it can be to a team to have an awful center rotation. While rescinding the Mark Williams trade probably saved the Lakers in the long run, it screwed them for this year.
We’ll see if the progress over two months is enough of a cushion to keep these guys out of the play-in mix, and if the Doncic/James dynamic gaining steam could launch the Lakers past this muddled-up mess.
6. Los Angeles Clippers (31-23): Up
The lowkey best story of the West this year, the Clippers have gotten career years from Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac to lift their meh depth behind James Harden and Kawhi Leonard while Leonard was hurt. In games Leonard has played since returning in early January, L.A. is 10-5 when he plays and 2-3 when he does not.
What we’re waiting on here is 1) if Leonard can stay healthy and 2) if the Clippers can manage without him if he cannot. In a very good sign, Powell is still cooking. Across those 20 games with Leonard back in the fold, Powell is averaging 25.2 points per game and shooting 52%. He rules. Leonard is at a tame 16 PPG, for now.
And while we all fall into the trap of buying in to buyout additions, Ben Simmons is perfect for the Clippers. A defense-first group with size that switches a lot and lacks a backup 5 slots him in perfectly off the bench. In their win before the break, Simmons had 12 points, seven rebounds, six assists, three steals and a block in 27 minutes. When he’s healthy and confident, two gigantic if’s, Simmons is still a game-changing talent.
They strangely feel like the safest bet out of this entire collective to end up top-6.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (31-25): Level
Minnesota’s team dynamic has unsurprisingly been altered too significantly by the Karl-Anthony Towns trade and its grit and physicality goes missing far too often. What could spark it back into place, though, is young energy. And that was on display in Thursday’s win over the Oklahoma City Thunder when rookies Jaylen Clark, Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. all ignited the team in different ways without Mike Conley, Donte DiVincenzo, Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle.
Naz Reid had 27 points in that victory while Jaden McDaniels added 21. Those two, plus Nickeil Alexander-Walker, are a big part of what made last year’s T-Wolves special and the role players have understandably had more of a stagnant impact this year. They looked totally rejuvenated by Clark’s tenacious on-ball defense, Dillingham’s tantalizing creation skills and Shannon’s explosive speed.
The issue is there’s room for only one of those guys in the rotation, maybe two. It took head coach Chris Finch over half the year to turn to Clark and Shannon over other wings, and ditto for Dillingham in the guard rotation. He has to have more of an open mind for that group while hoping cohesion begins to develop further around Randle.
A notable wrinkle here is despite playing in the far superior West, Minnesota is tied for the fourth-easiest schedule remaining. It joins Dallas, Houston and Golden State as those in the West race with a lighter path.
8. Dallas Mavericks (30-26): Down
With 26 games remaining, Dallas could spend at least nine without Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II. That is the end of Davis’ four-week timeline, while Gafford’s six weeks would add nine more games. Even if Davis and Gafford make it back earlier than expected, over half of his stretch run will come with just one reliable big. Dwight Powell hasn’t played since mid-January as well.
It really shouldn’t be sustainable.
Then again, Dallas ripped off four of its last five going into the break. Kyrie Irving is still awesome, there’s still enough talent around him on the perimeter and the backbone of being a great defensive team is invaluable for portions of the season like this one.
9. Sacramento Kings (28-27): You tell me
The winner of the, “Let’s just see how the first two weeks out of the break look” award. Even after trading De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento still has enough talent to make the top-6.
Zach LaVine is having a fantastic year, Domantas Sabonis should have been an All-Star and DeMar DeRozan is still DeMar DeRozan. Star power, check.
Malik Monk takes a huge step into the starting lineup as the “point guard” if this team even has one. Keon Ellis is great and finally getting playing time post-Mike Brown firing while Keegan Murray might just be more solid than future star (and that’s OK). Jonas Valanciunas is a luxury as a backup 5 while Trey Lyles has proven reliable over time and rookie Devin Carter is waiting in the wings. Supporting cast, check.
Does it all fit together? No idea! And Kings will have to find out with the second-toughest schedule left in the league. Right alongside them is Denver, Memphis, the Clippers and Lakers but all those teams are higher up the standings.
10. Golden State Warriors (28-27): Up
The most important number for the Warriors inside a 3-1 start with Jimmy Butler is 31.0. That is the points per game for Stephen Curry in those four appearances. The all-time great was having a, to his lofty standards, mundane season, but Butler jolting Curry back into All-NBA form would be a big development.
Two things can be true: Butler is going to be awesome for the rest of the year and there are gigantic downsides to signing him to a long-term deal. Golden State having a connector like Draymond Green in the gaps of the opposing defense that can also score and live at the free-throw line is going to prove to be a huge difference-maker. And if he is indeed the LoCkEr RoOm LeAdEr who brings CuLtUrE and AcCoUnTaBiLiTy, Golden State has the foundation to soar off that. Sorry, my keyboard malfunctioned after talking about that with Butler for two straight months.
More importantly, if the Warriors can get back to the way they were defending at the start of the year, they will climb up the standings.
11. Phoenix Suns (26-28): Down
The Suns are a miraculous Grayson Allen equalizer away from being on a seven-game losing streak. Head coach Mike Budenholzer has entered the desperation phase of his rotation choices, playing two-way guards Collin Gillespie and TyTy Washington Jr., both of whom have spent much of the season in the G League, to try to ignite something.
February rounds out with San Antonio, Chicago, Toronto, Memphis and New Orleans twice. Phoenix needs to win at least four of those to find something before the most difficult schedule really kicks off, and if it doesn’t, that gauntlet will bury ’em.
This team is just as, if not more talented than the 2021 NBA Finals group. That has not come to fruition in the slightest and that’s exactly why it is so easy to use “if” over and over with these guys.
12. San Antonio Spurs (23-29): Down
Two big concerns here.
First, in the five games De’Aaron Fox has played, the Spurs have a -7.6 net rating when Victor Wembanyama is on the floor and it jumped to 16.5 (!) for the 70 minutes he rested, per NBA Stats. It’s a small sample size and the break will be kind to San Antonio for it to better implement Fox. But until he’s making Wembanyama better, the Spurs are going nowhere.
And they need to, quickly. Basketball-Reference’s projections land at 42 wins for the ninth or 10th seed. In order for the Spurs to reach that, they have to finish 19-11. They definitely have enough depth and star power to do it. But it has to click into place immediately.
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