Daytona 500 Picks & Predictions: Will Bubba Wallace Quiet the Haters?  ...Middle East

The 2025 NASCAR season is ready to go green in its traditional grand style from Daytona International Speedway. But before the pack racing, hellacious blocks, and dramatic moves for the win take place, it’s time to make some Daytona 500 Picks and Predictions.

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Unlike most races on the schedule, the Daytona 500 and other events at superspeedways do not see dramatic changes in betting odds after practice and qualifying. Superspeedway racing is inherently high-variance, meaning a range of potential issues like the inevitable “Big One” can arise at any moment. This unpredictability is why even the favorites for the Daytona 500 and other superspeedway races have odds that are much longer than those typically seen at other races.

Daytona 500 Odds

As we approach this season’s Great American Race, one name stands out prominently on most people’s minds and at the top of the Daytona 500 odds boards: Kyle Busch. This will be his 20th Daytona 500, and he is seeking his first Harley J. Earl Trophy. Many are drawing parallels between him and arguably NASCAR’s greatest of all time, Dale Earnhardt Sr who finally won NASCAR’s biggest race in his 20th attempt, achieving that milestone while driving for Richard Childress Racing, just like Kyle is now. This optimism is bolstered by Busch’s history of strong performances in the Daytona 500 and on superspeedways since joining RCR at the start of the 2023 season.

Daytona 500 Channel, Start Time, and Schedule

Alongside Busch as a favorite is three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin who aims to overcome recent struggles, as he’s finished outside the top 15 in this race for three consecutive years. Other notable contenders include Penske teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, who won the Daytona 500 in 2015. Logano has had the best car in the last two runnings of the Daytona 500, so expect him to be a strong competitor again this year.

Daytona 500 Lineup: Pole Sitter and Starting Grid

Further down the odds board are defending Great American Race winner William Byron and Duel winners Bubba Wallace and Austin Cindric. The favorites are recognized for their talents on superspeedways but have faced challenges winning at the World Center of Racing. Given the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing though, even the biggest underdogs have a chance to claim victory in this prestigious event, which features a record-breaking purse. Here’s a look at the latest Daytona 500 odds, including options for ‘Top 3’ and ‘Top 5’ finishes.

2025 Daytona 500 Picks

This race is the most unpredictable of the season and I’ve always said betting on it is like throwing darts blindfolded. I’ll admit, sometimes it’s a bit like doing so with one eye able to see, but nothing in this race can be considered a lock or anything close to it. So with that in mind, here are my Daytona 500 picks. *Don’t let anyone tell you there is such thing as a Daytona 500 “Best Bet”

Cody Ware (-105, BetMGM) over Helio Castroneves Bet 1.05u to win 1u

This goes against all conventional wisdom and is contrary to my beliefs of exclusively targeting matchups of EVEN or longer at Daytona. But if you could draw up a matchup to go against conventional wisdom at Daytona, this is it.

Helio is a racing legend. He’s a 4-time Indianapolis 500 winner and Indy Car Hall of Famer. This weekend is the first time he’s EVER entered a Cup Series race though, and he’s already junked his equipment multiple times. He was able to run very few laps in race conditions after getting caught in a wreck, and then subsequently totaling his car during the Duels. As a result of said wreck and two full-time Trackhouse teammates also needing a backup car, they had to completely repair his. In short, Helio is starting at the very rear of the field, 41st, and will be in pieced-together equipment.

Cody Ware, although not the shining example of skill/talent in NASCAR, is an underrated survivor at Daytona and Talladega. Over his 16 career superspeedway races on those tracks, he’s wrecked out in just two of them. At Daytona, he has an average finish of 15th in his last 6 total races, and in the last three Daytona 500s, he’s averaging a 17th-place result. The Great American Race is as much a battle of attrition, as it is skill and speed. Therefore, the career “survivor” of Cody Ware should not only be the favorite against the extremely inexperienced Castroneves. He should be the favorite by a wide margin.

Bubba Wallace Outright (+2600, Fanduel) Bet .25u to win 6.5u

I do this almost every year, and I’m not stopping now despite history saying it is almost impossible.

Bubba Wallace is riding a ton of momentum coming into the Great American Race after winning Daytona Duel 1. Historically, this hasn’t been a good omen for Sunday’s main event. In fact, the last time a Duel winner also won the 500 was in 2012, and it’s only happened twice over the last 25. That said, Wallace is one of the best superspeedway racers in the sport.

He leads all active Cup Series drivers in average finish at Daytona (11.9) and has posted 20th or better finishes in 11 straight visits to the World Center of Racing. Furthermore, in what is possibly the most important stat for Daytona, Bubba has also completed over 98% of all possible laps during his 15 career starts here. Wallace is almost always putting himself in position late in these races, and with a little luck, which is definitely needed here, could be the man crossing the finish line first.

Lastly, picking winners for the Daytona 500 should not only be fun, but it should pay out well too. At 26-1, we don’t have to put much down, nor should we in this race, to reap the rewards.

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