DYLAN CEASE — Aside from some clarity at the ownership level, I have no idea what changed for the Padres over the past week. All winter long, we heard rumors that they would have to subtract, perhaps significantly, from their payroll before they could consider adding even a single penny to the bottom line. And for most of the winter, that has proved true. Indeed, that reality was seemingly supported by the onslaught of trade rumors ranging from Robert Suarez, to Michael King, to Luis Arraez, to Dylan Cease — rumors often featuring the Chicago Cubs!
But like I said, something has recently changed. Two days ago, the Padres signed qualified free agent Nick Pivetta to a four-year, $55M deal. And yesterday, they added another starter, Kyle Hart, to a more modest, but still real-money big-league deal.
Taken together — (1) the additional money added and (2) the fact that they’re both starting pitchers — most expected those trade rumors to pop back up. But if anything, the narrative has gone in the opposite direction.
Vibe Shift: Dylan Cease Trade Rumors
Here’s Jayson Stark at The Athletic, revealing the dramatic change in tone uncovered during his annual polling of league executives, scouts, and insiders. And he’s joined by Padres beat writer Dennis Lin, who first reported the rumored shift:
All the indicators were pointing toward a major sell-off, with Cease the headliner. Multiple front-office executives reported that they’d been talking to the Padres for weeks about him. Another summed up the state of that team with this vote: “Pick a Padre.”
But then, in the past day or two, the tone abruptly shifted. As Dennis Lin reported … the Padres began signaling to other teams that they were likely to keep both Cease and King.
Asked Thursday if the Pivetta signing changed the likelihood of the Padres trading a starter, one American League exec replied: “I don’t think so anymore. Feels like they’re trying to win it.”
Another rival exec cast a vote for Cease but on Thursday said he now thought a trade was a long shot. The Padres were trying to win, he said, so they wouldn’t move Cease for prospects….another exec reported the Padres no longer were indicating they needed to do any major slashing of payroll.
Forgive me for being naive if this turns out to be wrong, but that doesn’t sound like the typical ploy for leverage. That sounds like the Padres are legitimately planning to keep those players and just go for it again this year. And, indeed, Stark and Lin aren’t the only ones beating this drum.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY SportsOn the latest episode of Northside Territory, Sahadev Sharma reported something similar:
Anyone hoping for some massive trade with the Padres, everything that I’ve heard over the past 24 hours is “Yeah, they’ve added a couple of pitchers over the past two days…I think some people thought that may mean that ‘Oh, Dylan Cease is available, Michael King is available,'” (but) what I’m hearing is ‘No.’
(Padres GM) A.J. Preller wants to go into the season with those guys….(A trade for Cease or King is) not happening. That doesn’t sound like that’s happening unless there’s some change in thinking.
Aside from what he’s heard privately, Sharma also connects some financial dots. While the Padres did sign two more starters to significant deals overall, the actual cash outlay in 2025 (not the theoretical CBT hit) is very low. Pivetta is getting just $4M total this season, while Hart is guaranteed just $1.5M total.
Both have much more significant earnings scheduled for the future, but that didn’t force the Padres’ hand in the present: “Their concern isn’t the luxury tax, it’s pure cash flow. So they’re not, the way these deals (for Pivetta and Hart) are structured, they’re okay.”
So bottom line? Don’t count on a trade for Dylan Cease as the big-time pivot the Cubs look to make after whiffing on Alex Bregman. They still may be a piece short, and their payroll may be MUCH lower than it should be, but Cease might not be realistically available.
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