The Cubs Payroll Ranks Embarrassingly Low Relative to the Rest of the League ...Middle East

CUBS PAYROLL — Tom Ricketts and the Chicago Cubs can sing any song they want about the reality of their annual revenues, losses, and failed attempts to sign free agents. That’s the perk of keeping your bookkeeping private. You want to claim that you’re only breaking even or even weathering losses each year? No one can dispute it (or even simply ask why certain indirect team revenues are excluded from your calculation). But that same obfuscation also grants us the freedom to use whatever publicly available payroll figures we can to compare the Cubs up against the rest of the league. And when you do that, I’m sorry to say, it’s pretty embarrassing.

Each team’s payroll can be examined in two distinct manners: (1) the real money outlay, which is to say how many dollars are actually going out the door to players in a given year, and (2) the CBT calculation, which uses each player’s average annual value for purposes of the luxury tax (in addition to a number of other expenses for which teams have to account). By either measure, the Cubs are well below where they should be.

And while a preseason increase to the Cubs payroll is always possible, Jed Hoyer made it very clear that they’re already at their budgetary limit and that the late pursuit of Alex Bregman (like the late addition of Cody Bellinger last winter) was a one-time exception that would have brought them well past their purported means.

So to better understand that apparent limit, let’s take a look at how the Cubs payroll ranks relative to the rest of the league.

Cubs Payroll: Real Money

According to Roster Resource, as of today, the Chicago Cubs payroll (real money) ranks 13th in all of Major League Baseball, behind about 8-9 smaller markets, depending on your definition.

Another way to think about it: In terms of real cash, the Cubs payroll is just as close to the bottom ten than it is to the top 5, which is inarguably where they should be. You want to make the case that they’ll never top the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets for a variety of market, owner, and TV deal reasons? No problem. You’re probably right. But no other team besides the Red Sox – and maybe occasionally the Phillies or Giants – should EVER be higher. And yet all those teams PLUS the Blue Jays, Rangers, Astros, Braves, Padres, Angels, and Diamondbacks are spending more on their 2025 payroll than the Chicago Cubs.

Cubs Payroll: Luxury Tax Calculation

But how about the Cubs payroll for purposes of the luxury tax? Are they just being unfairly dinged by a number of high-AAV deals skewing them in the wrong direction? Nope! Like most teams, their luxury tax payroll is higher than the real money outlay, but it’s nowhere near the top, let alone where Tom Ricketts said he expects it to end up by the end of the season (the first tier of the luxury tax, $241M).

In fact, by this measure, the Cubs payroll actually moves down one spot relative to the league, just barely among the top half in baseball.

Now, maybe you could convince me that in a rebuilding/less competitive or even a merely “normal” year, whatever that would mean, a payroll at this level could be reasonable. I think that’d be wrong and a gross misuse of the financial advantages afforded a team in the third biggest market of the country. But that could be an argument. Except … that’s not at all what this year is.

Not only are the Cubs projected to be pretty good this season, a clear playoff contender and division favorite, but they’re also facing a pretty obvious mini-window as their best player, Kyle Tucker, and their expected closer, Ryan Pressly, are both free agents after the season. So if ever there was a time to flex their financial might, it would be now. But they’re not.

Instead, by either measure, they’re roughly in the middle of the pack. The Chicago Cubs. In a “go-for-it” season. Indefensible.

I’m sure they’ll add another small piece before the start of the season and probably something at the deadline, as well – both of which (when combined with escalators and bonuses) could drag the Cubs payroll closer to that $230M-$240M range, but that’s still just not enough. And, of course, other teams could and will do the same. So relatively speaking, they might not even move too far up the ranks.

If they find a way to trade for a frontline starter, sign another impact reliever or quality bench bat in free agency, or even extend Kyle Tucker, I’ll be happy – THRILLED – to discuss how they did what needed to be done before the season. But they are not getting the benefit of the doubt. Not on February 14. Not after the president of baseball operations mentioned how close to the top of their budget they already are.

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