US planes being shot down by Russia during Ukraine peacekeeping efforts would risk triggering a wider conflict with Moscow, ex-military leaders have warned.
Washington could provide air cover in a deal that would see the US gain access to Ukraine’s rare earth and minerals, UK government officials believe, possibly in the form of Patriot air defence missiles.
Last month, the US military transferred around 90 Patriots from Israel to Poland which are due on the Ukraine battlefield.
The Patriots would bolster Ukrainian firepower from barrages of missiles and drones that have overwhelmed the country’s air defence systems, with The Times reporting a Government source saying air cover hasn’t been ruled out by the US.
Former military commanders told The i Paper that US jets would also be needed to police the skies if a ceasefire with Russia is agreed.
But Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former British Army Colonel, warned that any air cover provided by the US to protect troops monitoring a peace deal with Russia would be at risk of an attack.
The event of US plane being downed would “incense” Donald Trump and spur him into ordering an attack by his air force, Col de Bretton-Gordon said.
A Patriot missile mobile launcher is displayed outside the Fort Sill Army Post near Lawton, Okla., in, 2023 (Photo: AP Photo/Sean Murphy, File)“If somebody had the affront to shoot down one of his jets, I think Trump would probably have an overwhelming and disproportionate response.
“He has a bit of form. When he was in power the first time he did order some attacks on Syrian chemical weapons sites, which others hadn’t done.”
But a viable peacekeeping force without American air and ground-based air cover would be very difficult, he said.
“It would tie up every capability so that countries like the UK would be able to do nothing else,” the ex-Army chief said.
UK peacekeeping force in Ukraine would need Putin agreement
Read More“We can barely protect our own airspace with the limited amount of jets we have.”
Ed Arnold, senior research fellow of European Security at the the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said the full scale of US involvement in any air defence mission was not yet known.
But it would be expected that Russia would see the downing of a US jet as more risky than shooting down a European plane.
“I think from a Russian perspective, targeting either accidentally or deliberately Nato forces in Europe – there is a qualitative difference between targeting US and European forces because of the likely response,” he said.
“So even if Trump didn’t want us to respond personally, the US political system and how they treat their military, revere them, that would probably change the calculations.
“So that shows that US forces within Ukraine would have far greater deterrence value than Europeans.”
Lord West of Spithead, former head of the Royal Navy, said US jets monitoring a no-fly zone over Ukraine would mean Washington had “money in the game”, but added it wasn’t clear they were indicating that level of military involvement at the moment.
“If American aircraft are providing a no-fly air defence of Ukraine, then they’re involved,” he said.
“And once people start shooting them down, then Russia will think that they’re at war with America.”
While Ukrainian air forces could be tasked with protecting airspace around its cities, an international force may be given the task of policing the borders.
But as well as armed fighter jets such as Typhoons and air defence systems – air refuelling tankers and surveillance platforms for airborne radar intelligence or ISTAR (intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance), which uses air, space, and cyber systems to gather and share information – would be required.
Greg Bagwell, a former RAF Air Marshal who has flown missions over no-fly zones in Iraq and commanded British aircraft in Libya, said policing the skies over Ukraine would require the entire RAF if the UK were acting alone.
“My concern would be how stable the situation would be in those early months,” he said.
“And therefore, how strong would you have to look in terms of being a deterrent to any incursions. And have the rules of engagement.
“You are now talking about, potentially, a European aircraft engaging Russian aircraft with all, with all the problems that that clearly creates.
“The trick is, what do you do when you observe something that you want to stop? Then we’re talking about potentially striking an incoming convoy. Well, that’s just changed the game.”
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