It’s time for some buy/sell as college basketball enters the last month of the regular season. Below are five things that have grabbed my attention heading into Week 15.
Florida can beat anyone
Many, myself included, wondered if Auburn’s loss to Florida over the weekend would bump Alabama up to No. 1 in the newest AP poll. Instead, on Monday, Auburn held onto the top spot and Alabama slotted in right behind the Tigers. In retrospect, it wasn’t much of a surprise. Auburn remains No. 1 in KenPom’s net efficiency ratings. Even in spite of the loss, Auburn still looks like it belongs in a tier all by itself this season.
In all reality, perhaps Florida should have been slotted ahead of Alabama in the recent AP poll. Todd Golden’s Gators are fifth in KenPom and fourth in EvanMiya. The Gators are ahead of Alabama in both ratings.
With its win over Auburn, Florida became just the fifth team in AP poll history to beat a No. 1 at home and on the road. And it became the first ever to do so against different AP No. 1s.
According to Bart Torvik, the Gators have the fourth-best chance of reaching the Final Four this season at 24%. Duke, Auburn, and Houston are the only teams with a more favorable path, according to Torvik’s model.
The Gators’ résumé is a fascinating one. They’re top-10 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency at KenPom, which usually has a strong correlation with tourney success. They’re a low-turnover team that rebounds the basketball well and plays outstanding first-shot defense. They have 3 guards who can all light up the scoreboard and they have enough size to deal with bigger frontcourts.
Florida is 7-3 thus far against top-50 teams in KenPom’s ratings, with 3 of those wins coming away from home. Two of the 3 losses were in tight games. The 20-point road drubbing at Tennessee marks the only time all season another team has really gotten the better of the Gators, and they responded to that showing with an 11-point win over a top-50 opponent 3 nights later.
Given how much distance separates the SEC from any other conference this season, I would be shocked if a team outside the conference wins the national championship. Absolutely no one will be as battle-tested come Tournament time as the SEC’s participants. The amount of stress testing being done right now is going to undoubtedly pay dividends once March rolls around. As Kirby Smart would say, playing on the road in this league is just a different animal.
And Florida still has one more road game on its schedule (March 5) against a team that could feasibly be an AP No. 1. There’s a path still for Alabama to grab and hold the top spot in the AP poll.
Six of the Gators’ final 8 games are against KenPom top-50 teams. But given what we’ve seen from this group already, Florida can beat anyone on any given night.
Verdict: BUY
Bet to consider: Florida is +1400 to win the national championship at bet365, and that would fall right in line with the 6.1% chance Bart Torvik gives the Gators to win the tourney. Bet365 also has Florida +350 to make the Final Four, which has a bit of plus value based on Torvik’s projections.
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