Manchester City’s response to their season of struggle? Go big in the January window, go again in the summer and – in all likelihood – go even bigger.
Those are the vibes among Premier League executives charged with looking after their club’s recruitment, whose job it is to get a sense of which way the wind is blowing in the transfer market.
And the clear feeling from some of them – parsed from those metaphorical watercooler chats with agents, intermediaries and the legion of behind-the-scenes movers and shakers who tend to dictate these things – is this is not a City outfit cowed by their rapid and remarkable decline in fortunes over the winter.
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Read More“The sense is they’re probably only getting started,” was what one told The i Paper last week, reflecting on a January spend that will probably stretch to nearly £200m when agents’ fees and various other costs are factored in.
Nico Gonzalez might have arrived from Porto on transfer deadline day for £50m but a changing of the midfield guard remains a work in progress, and bringing in an attacking midfielder and a winger will come with a hefty tab that City seem prepared to pay.
If this is the end of the sky blue empire, something many of their closest rivals clearly wish for in 2025, no one inside the club appears to have got that message.
The problem for Pep Guardiola ahead of the first leg of the Champions League’s new play-off phase this evening is that the promise of jam tomorrow won’t get his misfiring team out of the sticky situation they find themselves in today.
“We are where we are and I know that perfectly,” the City manager said when asked about the prospect of facing Real Madrid, a Champions League juggernaut, so early in the competition.
In the past Guardiola has deployed false humility to take the heat off his players but there is no camouflaging this season’s run.
The lethargy of their midfield, their alarming susceptibility to teams that transition quickly, the general loss of control in games: if a team stocked with good players go for their jugular, it often isn’t pretty.
New signing Omar Marmoush looks to have hit his stride already (Photo: Getty)Madrid’s form in the competition has been patchy this season but they tick all of those boxes.
In all fairness City’s infusion of new blood last month looked like a strategic response to their ills rather than a succession of scattergun signings.
One Etihad source remains adamant that City did not panic buy – “Look at the age profile, the sort of prices they paid, it was future-proofing the team,” they told The i Paper – but perhaps it was done with one eye on shoring up next season’s Champions League place rather than winning the competition this time.
“Clearly the club want to be in the Champions League,” Stefan Borson, football finance expert and former City adviser, tells The i Paper.
“The whole business – the whole cost base of the business – is set up to be in the Champions League. You can’t run a wage bill of £400m-plus and not be in the Champions League, especially now as the competition is worth more than it’s ever been.
“I think that’s what the investment is about, it’s about finishing in the top five. I’m not sure they’d admit it but that’s what the January investment feels about given they are likely to go out against Real Madrid.”
Tuesday night kicks off a big week for City.
After Madrid’s visit there is the not insignificant matter of Newcastle United at the Etihad on Saturday, a game that has taken on even more importance in the context of an unexpectedly close race for Champions League qualification.
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Read MoreIt would have been unthinkable back in August that City might be denied a place in Europe’s elite competition on sporting merit but the paucity of their performances of late means it is now a realistic prospect.
Opta’s industry-respected prediction service Analyst currently rates City’s xPos – or expected finish – as sixth.
They still believe they have more than a 60 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League – but it is far from a given.
Financially, City could survive a year’s exile from Europe’s elite competition without it hurting their bottom line too much.
The underlining numbers are strong, they have invested in infrastructure and growing their brand globally, and it only needs a cursory glance at the latest Premier League annual report to reinforce that.
Last season they banked £175.9m in prize money – more than anyone else in the league – and their latest revenue figures are a breathtaking £715m.
If they manage to hammer a further dent in the Premier League’s associated party transactions (APT) rules – and last week brought confirmation they are taking legal action against the top flight’s revised regulations – that figure will only rise with further big Gulf sponsorship deals.
Crucially – unlike most of the rest of the division – they are not hindered by the league’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR).
“City are still in a very strong position from a PSR perspective,” football finance expert Kieran Maguire says.
“Whilst the club spent extensively as far as the January window is concerned, this is effectively a catch-up as the club didn’t spend much money in 2024 so their overall spending is much lower than some other clubs in the Premier League.
“They also have the benefit of being in the Champions League this season with all of the bonuses from that, along with successful commercial deals from winning trophies historically.
“When you add in £300m of player sales, they can survive not being in the Champions League.”
There are further reasons for optimism now.
Omar Marmoush’s impact has been as positive as predicted, Savinho – quietly – is showing signs he could affect big games, and the fitness issues that undermined key players this season are beginning to clear up.
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Read MoreThey will surely improve if that happens.
A resolution to the 115 charges that have lingered over the club for nearly two years also appears close.
Guardiola predicts a conclusion within a month and the mood around City is bullish.
“City are obviously confident,” says Borson, who has analysed the case from the start.
“I don’t think anyone could credibly deny that they are – you don’t spend the way they have spent without being confident of avoiding major sanction.”
How Guardiola could do with some of that conviction on Tuesday.
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