On Monday, my colleague, Connor O’Gara, claimed that Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze has the hottest seat of any coach throughout the SEC football landscape entering the 2025 season. The honeymoon phase is over, he wrote. And it’s hard to argue. Freeze is 11-14 through his first 2 seasons. Through absurdity, stubborn-headedness, or just sheer dumb luck, Auburn went just 2-6 in conference play last season.
The Tigers went 3-5 against SEC competition the year prior. I was there in Dallas last July when both Freeze and quarterback Payton Thorne insisted upon an improved crop of skill players and how that singular change would help the bottom line. And I believed them!
But then the season began and Thorne couldn’t stop throwing picks. So Freeze planted him on the bench and gave redshirt freshman backup Hank Brown a chance. And then, when Brown couldn’t stop throwing picks, Freeze went back to Thorne.
In 12 games, Auburn’s passers had a 3.5% interception rate. That ranked 110th among FBS teams. With Thorne exhausting his eligibility and Brown transferring, Auburn’s room looks significantly different heading into 2025, and it’s really this position group that serves as the proverbial line of demarcation between those who believe Freeze will save his job and those who believe this era is doomed to fail.
Auburn added Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold, South Carolina transfer Tanner Bailey, and 5-star 2025 signee Deuce Knight. Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels will join the group in the summer.
With Arnold and Knight set to do battle in spring ball, one of them will likely enter the season with the starting job. Mistakes would be inevitable if Knight wins the job and starts as a true freshman. If Arnold wins the job, Auburn will turn the reins over to a third-year man with a career 1.9% interception rate.
Arnold was incredibly cautious with the ball last season with the Sooners. Among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, Arnold’s per-pass average of 5.7 yards was the second-lowest. While he wasn’t throwing interceptions, he wasn’t pushing the ball down the field with much success.
Compare that with Thorne, who averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 10 air yards per pass. According to PFF, Thorne had fewer turnover-worthy throws than Arnold, too.
But he continued a trend with Freeze-led quarterbacks.
When it comes to INT rates, the national average for all FBS teams over the last 3 seasons has hovered around 2.7%. Freeze-coached teams have had an interception rate greater than 2.7% in 9 of his 12 seasons as a head coach. Freeze-coached teams have had an interception rate greater than 3.7% in each of his last 4 seasons.
Is it the quarterback? Or is it Freeze?
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Last September, when Auburn was in the midst of a mind-numbing string of games, Freeze said he believed in what was being taught but claimed it was just hard to overcome so many turnovers.
In losses to Cal and Arkansas, Auburn had 10 turnovers. In a 6-point home loss to Oklahoma, Auburn had only a single turnover but it was crushing — a 63-yard pick-6 with 4:06 left to play in a game Auburn led by 5.
“I told our staff that, honestly, it’s one of the better gameplans that a staff has put together in my time,” Freeze said of the gameplan for Oklahoma.
Of course, no one on The Plains wanted to hear that.
And certainly not after Freeze claimed Auburn would win 9 of 10 games against Arkansas following a 10-point loss.
Auburn might be the most interesting team in the country to me entering 2025.
Freeze has the power to defy expectations. That could be a good thing or a bad thing.
Auburn’s Pythagorean wins expectation last season was 7.8. The Tigers won just 5. The difference between real and expected wins was the second-largest of any FBS team in the country.
Originally designed by Bill James as a way to calculate a baseball team’s projected winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed, Pythagorean Expectation uses a team’s point differential to determine relative strength.
The underlying assertion is that plain win-loss records can be deceiving. Pythagorean Expectation is a tool that has been shown to have predictive utility in college football.
There are outliers, as with anything. But in general, teams that outperform their Pythagorean Expectation one year tend to regress during the following season, while teams that underperform tend to improve.
In 2022, TCU had the second-largest difference between its Pythagorean wins and its actual wins (3.o) of any FBS school. And what happened in 2023? The Horned Frogs crashed back to earth. South Florida had the second-worst difference between its Pythagorean wins and its actual wins (-2.4) in 2022 and the Bulls had a 6-game improvement in 2023.
Miami was a prime “breakthrough” candidate for 2024 based on Pythagorean expectations. It won 7 games in 2023 with a point differential that suggested a 9-win team. Miami enjoyed a 3-win improvement in 2024. Oklahoma State wildly outperformed its win expectation in 2023 — a 10-win team with the point differential of a 7-win team — and the Cowboys fell apart in 2024.
Here are the 10 teams that most underperformed expectations in 2024:
UCF — Pythagorean Expectation: 6.9 wins | Actual wins: 4 Auburn — Pythagorean Expectation: 7.8 wins | Actual wins: 5 Florida International — Pythagorean Expectation: 6.2 wins | Actual wins: 4 Mississippi State — Pythagorean Expectation: 4.1 wins | Actual wins: 2 Virginia Tech — Pythagorean Expectation: 8.1 wins | Actual wins: 6 Utah — Pythagorean Expectation: 6.9 wins | Actual wins: 5 Kansas — Pythagorean Expectation: 6.9 wins | Actual wins: 5 Florida Atlantic — Pythagorean Expectation: 4.9 wins | Actual wins: 3 Tulane — Pythagorean Expectation: 10.9 wins | Actual wins: 9 Ole Miss — Pythagorean Expectation: 11.9 wins | Actual wins: 10And below are the 10 teams that most outperformed expectations:
Arkansas State — Pythagorean Expectation: 4.9 wins | Actual wins: 8 Sam Houston State — Pythagorean Expectation: 7.6 wins | Actual wins: 10 Syracuse — Pythagorean Expectation: 7.7 wins | Actual wins: 10 Duke — Pythagorean Expectation: 7.1 wins | Actual wins: 9 Colorado State — Pythagorean Expectation: 6.1 wins | Actual wins: 8 Buffalo — Pythagorean Expectation: 7.2 wins | Actual wins: 9 Oregon — Pythagorean Expectation: 11.2 wins | Actual wins: 13 Charlotte — Pythagorean Expectation: 3.4 wins | Actual wins: 5 Memphis — Pythagorean Expectation: 9.4 wins | Actual wins: 11 Iowa State — Pythagorean Expectation: 9.4 wins | Actual wins: 11Sports betting apps are rolling out select win totals for big-name programs in 2025. Auburn isn’t among them yet. I’m curious what the number opens at, though my guess is somewhere between 6.5 and 7.5. If it’s the former (or anything lower), the over is going to have some value.
Auburn has the 10th-best odds to win the SEC Championship Game at FanDuel (+3500). There’s a clear upper tier and then a distinct second tier. Auburn fits into a 2-school group in the middle of the conference alongside Florida. The potential is obvious, but there’s a high degree of risk with both for one reason (the schedule) or another (the Freeze factor).
With regard to Auburn, there is plenty of talent around the quarterback position. On the heels of a top-10 high school class in 2024, Freeze signed the seventh-best high school class in 2025 and has the eighth-ranked transfer class.
Auburn is bringing in an offensive lineman (Xavier Chaplin) who should be a high-end left tackle and another (Mason Murphy) who has a ton of experience at the high-major level. Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr. should partner with Cam Coleman to give the Tigers a really potent 1-2 punch at receiver.
And Auburn’s defense was strong last season. The unit finished 18th in the country in SP+. From what was a veteran-laden group, none of the top 4 tacklers return in 2025. That being said, 5 of the top 10 were underclassmen and are expected to have featured roles in 2025.
Utah is another school that jumps out as a potential breakthrough team in 2025.
The Utes were preseason favorites to win the Big 12 last season, but their debut season in the Big 12 was even more miserable than their final year in the Pac-12. In 2023, Utah never knew when quarterback Cameron Rising was coming back. To begin 2024, the Utes expected Rising to once again lead the team. But he was limited to just 3 games because of another injury and freshman Isaac Wilson was forced into action ahead of schedule.
Wilson threw 11 interceptions in 9 games. Like Auburn, Utah just couldn’t get out of its own way on offense. The Utes ended the year with a 4.7% interception rate on all passes. Per Game on Paper, Utah’s offense ranked 127th in adjusted EPA per play. There was no consistency to be found anywhere on offense.
But, during the Utes’ 7-game losing streak, they played in 5 games decided by 8 points or less. They lost by 3 to a ranked Iowa State team, by 1 to a top-10 BYU team, and by 8 on the road against the eventual Big 12 champion, Arizona State.
The defense was outstanding, which has become the standard under Morgan Scalley’s stewardship. The Utes’ defense ranked 15th nationally in adjusted EPA per play, according to Game on Paper.
Three of the top 4 tacklers return in 2025. Overall, 6 of the Utes’ top 10 tacklers are back. That includes linebacker Lander Barton, who will be the centerpiece of the Utah defense, and safety Tao Johnson.
It’s safe to assume Utah will not be the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 next season. At bet365, Utah is +1800 to win the league. Nine schools have shorter odds, including Kansas (+750). As a darkhorse team, Utah carries real value. So much so, that I’m actually putting a small wager on them now before spring ball arrives and folks realize how good Devon Dampier is.
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