The best political dramas require a dark master behind the scenes who is “really” making things happen, while the folk with the bigger titles kid themselves it’s their glory.
This is the Dominic Cummings version of his influence over British politics, re-emerging propitiously in the era of Elon Musk’s rise as co-author of the Trump administration. It seems that we too have our scion of foresight – a hoodie-wearing seer who can tell us exactly which is wrong with the system and a General Theory of Everything.
Cummings was on self-praising form in a Sunday Times interview this weekend, “unsurprised by his apparent vindication”. He is a fan of the Trump administration’s new start: “basically, all great,” having forged a career on orthogonal thinking towards the Establishment.
From an awkward squad youngster to brilliant leader of the Vote Leave campaign, Cummings outwitted Remain with guile and had a better ear for the public mood afterwards. He was the chief Boris Johnson-whisperer who sought control over a charismatic but muddled politician – and then dropped him from a great height. It was a thin line between love and hate.
There are parallels across the pond, because for all the self-adulation, Cummings really did deal a large part of death blow to his former master – or in his words, “I orchestrated it with a bunch of other people in Westminster who agreed with me that leaving him rattling around No 10 making a whole set of appalling decisions should be ended as soon as we could do.”
In truth, he could not bring down a prime minister with a vague array of allies – only disillusioned ministers and panicking MPs can do that. But he was an expert poisoner of the Tory and media wells against the man he had brought to power.
Johnson’s laziness, combined with his ex-chum’s revenge odyssey, rotted the base of a leader who had won convincingly. And that might well be the warning signal for the Musk/Trump interaction.
Presently, all looks swell: Musk is ruthlessly and recklessly stripping back the federal architecture, placing officials “on leave” in departments like the foreign aid agency, USAID, and joining forces with the President in attacks on media who have tested his record or critiqued policies. Cummings trusted a young band of favoured operatives over civil servants – Musk has outbid him with seven young techies as his key team at DOGE.
Initially however the Cummings-Johnson alignment looked good too. “Dom” was the radical, action-focussed part of the duo, Johnson did the “front of house” crowd pleasing and as Cummings tells the story, “being King” bit.
Whitehall did need a shake-up and still does – numerous attempts at making the civil service a more agile service have not worked. The problem is how to combine the instincts of the revolutionary with the leadership and management abilities to make change happen and sustain it: it is easier to blow the doors off dusty institutions than figure out what to do with the wreckage.
Already there is jockeying for position at the top of the US – Trump essentially sees Musk as a supporter, while the compulsive entrepreneur-ideologist seeks to be chief commentator on everything from Islam in Europe to Keir Starmer’s record.
It is a crossover likely to cause tensions, because the point of Trump is full-spectrum dominance. Even at this stage, body language tells an intriguing story – when Trump greeted Musk recently at Mar a Lago, stepping off his private plane, Musk held his arms aloft, turning to the photographers. The new President then pursued him up the carpet – and as soon as Musk turned his back, turned back to grab the final round of clicking shutters. Anyone who thinks Trump is too old for the role has clearly not seen how quickly he responds instinctively to re-assert superiority.
Cummings’s relationship with his boss fell apart after personal and staffing fallouts with the PM’s ambitious wife, but also because Johnson, while often rootless in government, did not always want to follow his aide’s combative determination to oust officials. When lockdown breaches revealed the government’s Achilles heels, neither did Johnson appreciate defending his aide’s ill-advised driving meander around the north-east to “test his eyesight”.
Classic Dom: turns out Cummings was right all along
Read MoreGranted, all this sounds petty in the grandiosity of US politics and tech titans. Yet some tensions look recognisable: Musk wants a form of dominance in ideas, driven by his faith in technology as the guide to progress and growth. That rubs up against a Maga understanding of bringing jobs and resource home to the heartlands, in the same way that attracting the Red Wall for Conservatives was easier than keeping it upright. Trump does not like alternative power centres – Musk is a natural builder of systems and his own ecology.
A returning US leader is not as vulnerable to Musk as Johnson was to Cummings: the presidency, other than in exceptional circumstances, is a settled post and four years is the likely duration. It would be surprising if Musk were still in the same role at the end of it, but that would not mighty bother a man who is at the pinnacle of global, tech dominance and may well be more so in future.
Back home, Cummings is chatting about Bismarckian theory and projects he “can’t talk about”. It is a very British way of being a bit Musk-y, just so far without the actual achievement in capitalism.
Anne McElvoy is executive editor at Politico and host of the Power Play podcast from Politico
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