The many, many pre-2025 Chicago Cubs top-X-number-of-prospects lists have dropped the last couple weeks – MLB Pipeline is the only major one we’re still waiting on – and if you haven’t seen all or any of them, I thought I’d round them up here. I also have some thoughts.
Baseball America dropped its full slate of top-30s for each organization:Baseball America's Top 30s are here ? – 900 scouting reports- 30 best prospects in every system- Industry insights from scouts & execs- Breakouts + sleepers buff.ly/3Zl4ULO
“Hernandez signed in January 2021 for a $3 million bonus, then really didn’t perform at all in 2022 or 2023, and it wasn’t clear what, if anything, the Cubs had in him. He went out last offseason and got significantly stronger, which led to his best year yet as a pro — he hit .269/.382/.406 in Low-A Myrtle Beach, a brutal hitter’s park, and while he was repeating Low A he was also clearly hurt by the lack of short-season ball and didn’t belong at that level the year prior. He’s also improved his defense at shortstop and is at least a 55 there, and he can also slide to second or third if need be. His power is starting to come on as well, with 20+ homer upside, and his command of the strike zone took a big jump as well. He does have timing issues at the plate, with such a loose, easy swing that sometimes he can’t line everything up to really square the ball up, such as on good fastballs. He was kind of a forgotten man a year ago, but I think there’s still something here given the body, tools (including above-average or better speed), and the rapid progress he made in the last 16 months.”
I’ll need to see more ISO and fewer groundballs before I buy back in as a top-10 type, but the Cubs still believe, and he was just 20 years old all season last year between Low-A and High-A. Baseball Prospectus’s top-10 Cubs list can be seen here, with another very high Pedro Ramirez nod (number 8, a spot ahead of Jefferson Rojas). Just Baseball put out a top-15 Cubs prospects list, with an extensive scouting report on each prospect, plus another 10 “names to consider.” I thought the write-up on Kevin Alcántara included a take that is extremely helpful in understanding how to think about his offensive potential:“Tall, long, and lanky, Alcantara generates a ton of momentum in his swing, producing big time exit velocities and tape measure shots when he squares it up. The challenge for Alcantara has been managing those long levers enough to produce contact at the desired angles with any level of consistency.
His 90th percentile exit velocity of 106 MPH is more than two ticks above the MLB average and his Hard-hit Rate at Triple-A was more than 12% above the International League average in 2024. But with the slack in his swing, Alcantara’s has the tendency to put balls on the ground too often, even when he is producing strong exit velocities. His average launch angle on batted balls 95+ MPH as below four degrees in 2024.
Alcantara has improved his contact rate by nearly two percent each season, now fringe-average in that regard largely due to his improved ability to time up fastballs. He produced an OPS just under 1.000 against fastballs, but barely eclipsed .600 against all other offerings. It can somewhat put him in swing mode, chasing north of 30% of the time in 2024, though that was down five percent from the year prior.”
Less chase, more lift. Not every prospect comes with the physical toolkit that Alcántara does – watch him play just one time and you can see why there’s enormous offensive potential – but we know that guys with his body sometimes can’t get it all coordinated enough to maximize that potential. This could be a big developmental year for the 22-year-old, who has consistently produced results at every level, but who will need to overcome those two challenges if he’s going to do it at the big league level. Kiley McDaniel put together a top-10 list for each org over at ESPN, and shortstop Yahil Melendez at 9 would be the surprise: “Melendez may not be a shortstop, but he should fit in the infield long term, and his full-season debut will be coming in 2025. He has top-100 upside by next winter because he has plus power potential, feel to get to that power in games, a solid approach and some feel for the bat head. You can’t be right about every hunch, but the pieces are here.” Lastly, the FanGraphs top-37 Cubs prospects list actually came out in late-December and we discussed it then, but here it is if you missed it. Suffice to say, there were major steps back in the grading for almost all of the Cubs’ top prospects, with only Shaw, Alcántara, and Horton remaining at a 50 FV, and only Rojas being even a 45+. Of note, the new IFA signings have since been added, and Juan Tomas gets the most love from FG, slotting in at number 13. Oh, and don’t forget to check out Bryan’s list if you haven’t already:Really grateful to have a home for my offseason prospect rankings as familiar and beloved as @bleachernation.bsky.social. Check out the article, and if you have a question, come back here and ask me anything. Cubs! Prospect! Rankings!www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2025/01…
— Bryan Smith (@cubsmith.bsky.social) 2025-01-28T20:51:24.812Z Read More Details
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