Nigel Farage stood up at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday to hostile silence. Squashed together in the Commons, MPs from other parties glowered at him, and then delighted as he appeared to fluff his lines when asking a question about the Chagos Islands.
Behind the scenes it is a different story, with individual MPs from other parties queuing up to ask the Reform UK leader to sign House of Commons wine bottles and drinks coasters for family members and constituents who are fans of his brand of straight-talking populism. It’s not clear whether those MPs acknowledge the cognitive dissonance involved.
There’s no doubt Reform is having a moment. On average, the last half-dozen polls have put the party on 25 per cent, putting it equal first with Labour. Three of those polls put the party in the lead, either solely or in tandem with Labour.
It’s causing tangible jitters among both Labour and Conservative MPs. At PMQs, Farage accused them of “panic.”
This week a group of around 40 Labour MPs from “Red Wall” seats in the north of England called for Sir Keir Starmer to send a stronger message on immigration as they seek to see off the threat from Farage and his crew ahead of local elections in May.
Behind the scenes, other Labour MPs have requested training sessions from No 10 on how to deal with Reform in their areas. “It really troubles them,” a Labour source said.
But MPs are told there is no magic bullet, according to a source who has attended the training. They’re told it’s about being highly visible locally, for instance by having brunch at a constituency café. They’re told to appear as regular people with an emotional connection to the area and put in some hard yards with their voters. They also need to talk about how Labour is working nationally to tackle issues of importance on jobs, the cost of living and the NHS. “There is no substitute for hard work,” the source added.
Starmer the lawyer is at odds with Starmer the politician – it won't end well
Read MoreThe Labour Together think tank is building a database tracking everything Reform does to help work out the best strategy to tackle them. Focus groups of swing voters have suggested Reform is vulnerable on health policy and the future of the NHS.
Starmer and other Labour MPs made a point of highlighting Reform’s position on charging for healthcare at PMQs. But Reform insiders believe PM is rattled after referring to the party twice by name during the session, something he has never done before in Parliament.
Meanwhile, both Labour and the Tories acknowledge Reform is beating them at online campaigning, with a strong presence on both Facebook and TikTok.
Talk to MPs and political aides in Westminster and the strength of X, once a worry, is now largely disregarded. Like a virus mutating, an idea may start on X posed by an influential voice such as Elon Musk, who campaigned for a national inquiry on child-grooming gangs. But often, it only takes hold of the general population once it has jumped to Facebook.
“Facebook is incredibly influential. The speed with which news goes through it is quite something. Even if a thought starts on X, its influence is felt on Facebook. And it is particularly in those kinds of pages that don’t look deeply political… Where it’s most felt is on those pages where it says, for instance, ‘Do you want to buy a bike and there’s a party on this weekend and, by the way, don’t we all agree with Elon Musk on child safety?’” a No 10 source told The i Paper.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is also clearly aware of the threat coming from her right flank. On Thursday, the Tories briefed friendly newspapers that immigrants should only be allowed to apply for British citizenship after 15 years of being in the UK, as opposed to the current six.
And if this is her first policy proposal, she has also previously used dog-whistle politics to identify “peasants” from “sub-communities” in some countries as those responsible for grooming and raping child victims.
For other, more jittery Tories, it’s a watching brief, hoping the economy improves and the threat from Reform dissipates ahead of the next general election.
“The best thing we have in dealing with Reform is time,” one Conservative MP told The i Paper. “Every day, every week that goes by, there is more of a distance between us as a newly refreshed party and the previous administration and we can set out new policies and new ideas.”
Another Tory MP added: “Labour is playing catch-up in dealing with Reform. We have dealt with the people in our party who may be tempted to jump over to them and who are on the edge of reasonable, aka the nutters. I think the party is pretty solid now, with little chance of defection by an MP.”
But it’s not just the threat of Tory MPs and local councillors defecting to Reform that Conservatives should be worried about. Voters appear to be hiving off to Farage’s party in droves. Elections for regional mayors in May will be the first test of whether the current polls are right.
Reform insiders expect to perform extremely well locally, even though they have been denied the chance to stand in some county council elections.
And inside Westminster, Reform staffers are optimistic about the party’s fortunes, with talk of hundreds of MPs after the next general election, building on the party’s breakthrough success with five MPs last July. “It’s easier to go from five to 300 MPs than it is from zero to five,” a source said.
While some predict the Conservatives and Reform could end up in an electoral pact after the next election, most Tories are dismissive of a “unite the right” deal. “Ask yourself what Farage actually wants. Does he want to be Prime Minister? If so, why didn’t he join the Tories 30 years ago? He sees himself as an outsider,” one Conservative MP said.
“What we are witnessing is a fundamental shift in British politics. The Tory party has every right to be in panic mode,” a Reform source told The i Paper.
However sniffy MPs are about Farage in the House of Commons, they know he’s a force to be reckoned with in the country. And they have the signed gifts for their friends to prove it.
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