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ROCHESTER, N.Y. — You probably know what happened this weekend in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. He is the great fuzzy prognosticator called Punxsutawney Phil and this groundhog is the king of publicity. Much of this stems from the movie, “Ground Hog Day”, which featured the very talented Bill Murray (1993). It is great fun, but it is important to note that this is weather folklore.
You may be wondering what is the tale of this folklore? Simple stated, if Phil “sees” his shadow there will be another six more weeks of winter. If he does not see his shadow, it will be an early spring. This year, Punxsutawney Phil did see his shadow. As a result, winter is upon us and will stay in Western New York. I am not necessarily happy about that prediction, but please keep in mind that Rochester usually gets another six more weeks of winter no matter what the prediction says.
The groundhog prediction goes back to 1886 and over that period Phil has predicted “more winter” 78 percent of the time with only 15 percent going to an early spring (7 percent shows no record). More recently, Phil’s record is a little more dubius. The last five years is (going back to 2020) the groundhog has been incorrect three out of the five years.
There is no doubt that predicting the future is very difficult, but for now I think our meteorological jobs are safe.
First Alert Weather In-Depth: Groundhog day: Accuracy or entertainment? WHEC.com.
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