Being that the rest of the farm system rankings saw the Chicago Cubs take a pretty steep fall from this time last year until the end of the 2024 season (think top-5 to somewhere in the 10 to 15 range, pretty consistently), it’s nice to see at least one ranking that is still very rosy on the Cubs. Maybe even too rosy. But I’ll take it.
Keith Law, whose top-100 list dropped earlier this week, ranked the 30 farm systems in baseball, and the Cubs actually show up at number six:
my annual ranking of all 30 MLB farm systems is up for subscribers to @theathletic.bsky.social: nyti.ms/3ChfCLW
— Keith Law (@keithlaw.bsky.social) 2025-01-30T14:56:57.480ZThe precise ranking probably matters a little less than Law’s tier system (there are three top-tier farm systems, and then five in the second tier, where the Cubs land), and even that probably matters less than what Law has to say:
“The Cubs have four guys on the top 100 and two on the just-missed list, with some intriguing bats right behind them — but Chicago, like a couple of the teams ahead of them, is also light on the pitching side. They join the Guardians and Red Sox as analytics-heavy teams that have eschewed pitching in the upper rounds of the draft. The Cubs took one big swing on an arm in 2022 when they selected Cade Horton, who’s going to be very good if he stays healthy. I’m not sure there’s a likely (odds over 50 percent) MLB starting pitcher in the system after Horton, however. In most years that would push them out of my top 10, but the minors are just down as a whole, and there aren’t that many pitchers on my top 100.”
In other words, the Cubs look good on the positional side, less good on the pitching side, and are buoyed in part by overall weakness in the minors, particularly on the pitching side. Fair enough.
For me, now that we’re mostly through rankings season, and with time to evaluate the last year and read more updated scouting reports, I tend to think a ranking of the Cubs’ system that lands them anywhere in the 6 through 15 range could be justified. Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic, but until we see if any of the lower-level arms or complex-level position players REALLY pop this year, I’d have a hard time being the one arguing for anything higher than 10. It just feels fair and right in my gut, especially after the Kyle Tucker trade.
These things can and do change rapidly, though, and in unpredictable directions. It isn’t difficult to see things looking really good for the Cubs’ farm system by midseason, just as it isn’t difficult to see some real issues. The Cubs have remade their scouting and player development infrastructure over the course of the last four years, and the fruits of that process have to keep showing up. More breakouts this year. Another good draft. Much more success in developing IFA prospects. That all has to happen, particularly if the Cubs want to avoid a cliff once all the Triple-A prospects graduate.
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