Cubs Have Reportedly Discussed a Dylan Cease Trade with the Padres ...Middle East

DYLAN CEASE RUMORS — Although it’s somewhat difficult to believe given the date on the calendar and their apparent financial limitations, the Chicago Cubs appear to be one of the most active teams in MLB. On the more realistic/conservative side, the rumors have them looking to add either (1) another quality reliever or (2) a bench bat. And at the crazy/aggressive end of the rumor spectrum, options like Alex Bregman and/or an impact starting pitcher are still making their rounds.

With a current CBT payroll of roughly $207M — and a sober reflection of what they’ve implied over and over this offseason with respect to payroll — the former approach seems to be a whole lot more likely than the latter. And that goes double for any rumor that would necessarily require further diving into their top-heavy minor league system. But I’ll share the rumors nonetheless so that we can discuss. But guard your heart; you’ve been warned!

Cubs Have Talked Dylan Cease Trade

According to Jon Morosi, the Chicago Cubs have spoken to the Padres about a trade for Dylan Cease. He said that directly in a post on X earlier today, and called them the “one team to watch” on MLB Network, as well.

The Cubs have spoken with the Padres about Dylan Cease, as I reported on #MLBNHotStove this morning. t.co/JGynIJclhY

Strictly speaking, I do believe part of Jon Morosi’s reporting here, because, frankly, I’ve heard something similar, myself. The Cubs have checked in on Dylan Cease. It also just tracks logically, and in a couple of different ways.

For one thing, we know the Cubs had interest in acquiring a high-upside, short-term starter earlier this offseason in Jesus Luzardo. That seems to be the type of mid-to-front-of-rotation acquisition they could still be considering.

For another thing, we know the Cubs may have interest in fellow Padres one-year starter Michael King. So, if conversations were happening already (on one guy or the other), expanding that conversation to other available starting pitchers hardly requires a significant stretch of the imagination.

To take it a step further, whether the Padres (1) actually need to slash their payroll as deeply as they’ve indicated all offseason or if they (2) merely need to maintain their current level as has been recently reported at The San Diego Union-Tribune, cuts will be needed. They have significant needs throughout their roster, and “They don’t seem capable of adding without also subtracting,” reports Kevin Acee.

So taken all together, sure, I buy it. The Cubs have checked in on Dylan Cease.

Unfortunately, I think that’s about where this ends.

Why? Because I can also tell you that, from what I’ve heard, the asking price on Dylan Cease is not only astronomical, it’s just plain cost-prohibitive. In fact, it gives me the sense that the Padres are not all that interested in dealing Cease in the first place. So I would not get your hopes up.

What Does a Trade for a Padres Starter Look Like?

But for the sake of conversation, let’s do a little mental math to understand what a deal for Michael King or Dylan Cease should look like. It’s easy enough to comp based on the Corbin Burnes trade last offseason.

Last offseason, Corbin Burnes looked like a similar tier of pitcher as Dylan Cease does now, both slightly ahead of Michael King by virtue of track record. By contrast, King (~$8.0M) and Cease (~$13.75M) are going to cost less money than Burnes did in 2024 ($15.6M). So it’s not perfect, but it’s pretty close. And Burnes cost the Orioles:

Joey Ortiz was a 25-year-old big-league-ready contributor who went on to post a 3.1 WAR season for the Brewers. Likewise, D.L. Hall was considered to be a potential starter/high-quality reliever. He didn’t have a great season, but his value was higher at the time of the trade. Both were very cheap, too. Meanwhile, the 34th pick in the draft is no minor third piece. That has real value to teams, value that will be difficult for us to transfer over in a hypothetical trade with the Cubs, who don’t have one of those picks to deal.

So what do I think it would take for the Cubs to get Cease or King? Knowing what the Padres need per Kevin Acee (starting pitcher, left fielder, catcher, first base/DH) and copying the Orioles-Brewers model (cheap, big-league ready pieces with extra prospect value), I think a trade probably looks something like …

If the Cubs were to include Caissie or Alcantara (both very well-liked prospects), I don’t think they should have to add any additional prospect capital. In fact, I think that’s probably too much to give up for one year of Cease or King, depending on your feelings on the pitcher side of the trade. By contrast, if that outfield prospect was downgraded to someone like, say, Alexander Canario, then there would probably have to be a really significant, valuable kicker to replicate that 34th pick in the draft value. Think a low-level, high-upside, well-ranked prospect. Someone whose name you likely know with solid upside but a long time away from the Major Leagues.

Please note, these are just hypothetical names based on the Burnes comp. They are not anything I have heard privately. I am just trying to provide some context.

So does that strike you as a deal you’d like to make? It’s tough. On the one hand, adding Cease or King would instantly lend some SERIOUS credibility to the Cubs’ chances in 2025, which is the one and only year they have control of Kyle Tucker. On the other hand, the Cubs have already dealt some serious long-term capital over the last two offseasons, dealing top-100 prospects Zyhir Hope, Jackson Ferris, and Cam Smith, plus Isaac Paredes, among other quality names.

I don’t think the Cubs would think twice about dealing a younger starting pitcher in this sort of deal, even though they have very real, near-term value to the Cubs. They’ve simply built up enough starting depth to handle that, especially if you’re getting a starter back, and that starter is truly impact caliber. But adding one of their top-100 Triple-A outfield prospects to that for yet another one-year guy? I just don’t think that’s in the cards.

So again, I say, guard your heart. The rumor is out there and the Cubs are clearly still active. But I just don’t think a trade for Dylan Cease is happening.

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