Reserve Bank of New Zealand chief economist Conway
Without future shocks, the OCR will tend towards the neutral interest rate.With declining inward migration and weak productivity growth, potential output growth is likely to be modest.The long-term nominal neutral interest rate currently lies between 2.5% and 3.5%.The Monetary Policy Committee is confident that remaining persistent domestic inflation pressures will abate.Easing domestic pricing intentions and a drop in inflation expectations will help open the way for some further easing of the OCR, as signalled in November.Nothing surprising here, the RBNZ is on a rate cutting path and there are more cuts to come.
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