Researchers have identified 10 European holiday hotspots projected to see the highest temperature-related death tolls by the end of the century due to climate change.
Barcelona tops the list for European cities forecast to have the most deaths from extreme heat and cold weather by 2099, with 246,082 fatalities, according to modelling led by researchers from the Environment and Health Modelling (EHM) Lab at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and published in Nature Medicine.
The Spanish city recorded its hottest day on record last year when a heatwave saw the mercury rise to 40°C.
In second place is Rome with 147,738, followed by Naples with 147,248 projected deaths. While Athens, which was forced to shut the Acropolis and schools during last year’s European heatwave that brought the Greek city night-time temperatures around 30°C, was listed sixth with 87,523 fatalities.
Climate change will likely result in a significant rise in deaths from heat across Europe, substantially surpassing any decrease in cold-related deaths, the researchers behind the study said.
The analysis “debunks” theories of “beneficial” effects of climate change, one of the study’s authors said.
Even if enormous efforts are made to adapt cities to changing temperatures, this would not be not be enough to balance increased health risks due to exposure to heat, especially in the most vulnerable areas such as the Mediterranean region, Central Europe, and the Balkans, according to the study.
Its authors said the findings reinforce the need for aggressive mitigation policies.
Dr Pierre Masselot, lead author at the EHM Lab at the LSHTM, said: “Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat. This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, consequences could be dire. But, by following a more sustainable pathway, we could avoid millions of deaths before the end of the century.”
Due to their larger populations the highest numbers of temperature-related deaths are projected in the most populous Mediterranean cities, the study shows.
The 10 European tourist destinations projected to see the highest temperature-related death tolls by 2099
Barcelona, Spain – 246,082 Rome, Italy – 147,738 Naples, Italy – 147,248 Madrid, Spain – 129,716 Milan, Italy – 110,131 Athens, Greece – 87,523 Valencia, Spain – 67,519 Marseille, France – 51,306 Bucharest, Romania – 47,468 Genoa, Italy – 36,338However, many smaller cities in Malta, Spain and Italy are also likely to be badly affected with high temperature-related death rates, scientists said.
Up to 70 per cent of an estimated 2.3 million additional temperature-related deaths in 854 European cities by 2099 could be avoided if urgent action is taken, according to the scientists.
Outside the Mediterranean region, increases in temperature related deaths are expected to be less severe, with other European capitals such as Paris (13,515) projected to see a smaller, but still significant, increase in cumulative cold and heat deaths.
In comparison, most cities in the British Isles and Scandinavian countries could see a net decrease in deaths, London being one with 27,455 fewer deaths forecast, the study found.
But researchers said this lower death toll would be massively outweighed by the increases in the rest of Europe.
Professor Antonio Gasparrini, senior author of the article and lead of the EHM Lab at the LSHTM said: “These results debunk proposed theories of ‘beneficial’ effects of climate change, often proposed in opposition to vital mitigation policies that should be implemented as soon as possible.”
Experts have warned that heatwaves are becoming more frequent and hotter due to climate change.
A 2021 Met Office report found Europe can expect heatwave with temperatures of nearly 50°C every three years.
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