College basketball is nearing the midway point of the 2024-5 campaign, so it’s a good time to take a peak at the futures market and break down some best bets.
All of the best betting apps on the market are currently offering odds on the National Championship, Final Four and conference title races. By examining those odds and comparing them to public projection models, we can try to identify where the value is.
A couple important notes before we dive in: 1) All references to “expected value” are based on comparing projections from BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model to betting odds from a number of sportsbooks. 2) I compared futures prices at those books for all of college basketball’s top contenders.
Here’s a look at 5 of the highest expected-value wagers based on that process:
College basketball futures best bets (Jan. 24)
Wisconsin to reach the Final Four (+2800 on ESPN BET)
Implied odds: 3.45% BartTorvik odds: 7.5% Expected value: $117.5 on a $100 wagerWisconsin has gone a bit under-the-radar this season in the Big Ten, but the Badgers might not be overlooked for long. KenPom is projecting Wisconsin as the favorite in 7 of its next 9 games. Greg Gard has built a top-10 offense in Madison that rarely turns the ball over and shoots a lot of 3-pointers (38th nationally in 3-point attempt rate). The defense isn’t elite, but this is a high-variance profile, which is something to look for when trying to identify semi-long shots in March.
ESPN BET Sportsbook
NJ, PA, VA, MD, WV, MA, KS, KY, LA, TN, NC, CO, AZ, IA, IL, IN, MI, OH Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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