The second coming of Donald Trump as US President has the potential to disrupt the world order, experts have told The i Paper.
Even before taking office, the so-called leader of the free world has already floated the idea of buying Greenland, reclaiming control of the Panama Canal, and has referred to Canada as America’s “51st state” – all while refusing to rule out the use of military force to achieve his goals.
His economic vision of the world is equally confrontational, threatening to launch a full-scale trade war with not only China but the European Union and other Western allies.
Trump’s rhetoric signals a more radical variant of his “America First” ideology —one that rejects international norms, globalisation and free trade in favour of economic nationalism and territorial gain.
But his unpredictability and ambiguous statements have also become a powerful weapon in his zero-sum game, where every country is deemed a competitor – and possibly a threat to American hegemony.
While experts say this leaves world leaders scrambling to second-guess Trump’s next move, his belligerent style of diplomacy could rupture America’s long-standing global alliances with its closest partners.
As the UK’s Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, warned last week: “ -Cold War peace is well and truly over…. We are at a moment of great uncertainty once again.”
At the heart of Trump’s economic agenda lies a renewed assault on global trade.
He has proposed tariffs of 60 per cent on China, and other Brics countries (the economic grouping that includes Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa among others) could see duties as high as 100 per cent if they pursue plans to establish a currency rivalling the US dollar.
Even America’s closest allies are not exempt, with threats of 10-20 per cent on imports from all countries including the UK, while Canada and Mexico could face 25 per cent tariffs. Trump has even warned the EU to increase purchases of American oil and gas. “Otherwise it is TARIFFS all the way!!!” he posted on his social media site Truth Social.
But analysts say China remains the key target of Trump’s foreign policy. During his first term, he imposed tariffs on $360 billion (£295bn) worth of Chinese goods— measures that President Biden has largely maintained.
Beijing has since responded with countermeasures, extending tariffs on US imports and sanctioning American firms.
While Trump insists these measures will protect jobs and boost revenue, economists argue that the primary burden falls on US consumers, as tariffs function as domestic taxes on imported goods, with importers passing the costs onto consumers.
“The economic impact of the trade war is subject to considerable research and from a purely economic standpoint are largely negative both for the US citizens and for the Chinese economy,” says Robert Elliott, a professor of economics at the University of Birmingham.
He adds that Trump’s approach marks a definitive shift away from free trade, ushering in an era of protectionism that could fuel global inflation. The incoming US President has embraced this new reality, calling his approach: “An eye for an eye, a tariff for a tariff.”
Threats to America’s closest allies
Trump’s proposed tariffs will come at a fraught moment for the EU. With growth stagnating across the G7 and inflation still biting, a tariff war with Washington would be a serious blow to Europe.
Brussels has been preparing for this scenario since last summer, quietly drafting retaliation plans should he impose sweeping import duties.
Stephen Miran, Trump’s incoming chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, has advocated for an aggressive response, suggesting the US could threaten to withdraw defence and security assistance if allies dare to retaliate.
But European leaders are also seeking to de-escalate, with promises to buy more American goods.
“A tough dealmaker never starts where they want the deal to wind up. Trump’s intention is to signal toughness to bring the world in line,” says Christopher Phelps, from the University of Nottingham’s Department of American Studies.
He adds that Trump’s likely strategy is to push the EU and UK towards a bilateral trade deal — on terms heavily skewed in Washington’s favour. Already, Brussels appears to be softening its scrutiny of American tech giants.
Although Britain has not been directly threatened, Politico reported that Sir Keir Starmer’s government was prepared to retaliate if Trump imposes universal tariffs. If the UK is targeted, Downing Street may be forced into tough negotiations on deregulated US products being sold to the UK.
Meanwhile, Trump’s close ally Elon Musk has caused outrage in European capitals, fanning the flames of Europe’s far right through his social media platform, X, by openly advocating for new leadership in the UK, Germany, and France.
Justin Trudeau may be one of the first world leaders to have fallen victim to the whims of Trump.
The then-Canadian Prime Minister sought to smooth relations after Trump’s election by visiting his Mar-a-Lago residence, only for the president-elect to publicly refer to him as the “governor” of the “Great State of Canada.” The fallout was swift: Trudeau’s close ally, finance minister Chrystia Freeland, resigned from his government, citing his inability to handle a second Trump presidency.
Meanwhile, Greenland and Denmark, which rules the self-governing territory, have said the island is not for sale after Trump declared that the US needed to control it “for national security purposes”.
Professor Elliott said: “Trump has a unique negotiation strategy. The Greenland and Canada discussion is less to do with securing trade deals and more to do with broad geopolitics related to securing access to mineral resources and to achieve the scale needed to compete with China.”
Panama and Mexico have also been drawn into Trump’s territorial ambitions. Panama’s foreign minister, Javier Martínez-Acha, said that its sovereignty over the Panama Canal was “non-negotiable” after the US President-elect refused to rule out military force to seize it.
Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, struck a more defiant tone after Trump suggested renaming the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America, sarcastically proposing that North America should be renamed “Mexican America”.
Yet behind the scenes, her government has begun stepping up seizures of the opioid fentanyl — which Trump has complained about being transported over the US’s southern border.
An end to wars in Ukraine and Gaza?
Trump has famously claimed that he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, without providing any further details.
His relationship with Russia also remains ambiguous: while he extended sanctions on Moscow during his first term, he also cultivated warm ties with the country’s President, Vladimir Putin, calling him “genius” and “savvy.”
Bronwen Maddox, director of the London-based think-tank Chatham House warns that if Trump “seeks to freeze the conflict along the current front line, there will be little to protect Ukraine — or Europe — from further Russian aggression in the future unless the US pledges to block that.
“The US could offer Kyiv explicit security guarantees, although Nato membership remains a distant prospect,” she said.
Trump joined by family, Zuckerberg and Bezos at church ahead of inauguration
Read MoreWhile it remains to be seen if Ukraine and Russia will reach a peace settlement, a ceasefire in Gaza, which was agreed after the Trump team joined behind-the-scenes diplomacy, appears to be holding.
The surprise appointment of property mogul Steven Witkoff as Trump’s Middle East envoy raised eyebrows in November. But just weeks later, Witkoff was dispatched to Qatar, and last week was thanked personally by the county’s Prime Minister as playing a vital role in efforts to secure the ceasefire.
Exactly how Trump pressured Israel into accepting a deal — through precise threats or new promises — remains unclear. “It’s always difficult with Trump to know if there’s a method to the madness, or just madness,” Dr Phelps added.
However, there is still concern that the fragile ceasefire will break down, with Israel reiterating that it “retains the right to continue our war aims” in Gaza if Hamas breaks its terms.
Early signs indicate Trump’s second presidency could be even more disruptive than his first.
But for Trump’s allies and adversaries, the challenge remains the same: How to navigate a new world order where the US no longer plays by the old rules.
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