Three key battles that will decide Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic ...Middle East

MELBOURNE — The tennis world will stand still for a few hours on Tuesday night as a burgeoning rivalry notches its eighth instalment.

Novak Djokovic spent the weekend embroiled in a row with Channel 9, but it is Carlos Alcaraz who will play the part of his adversary after an apology from the broadcaster appeared to smooth things over for Tony Jones’s ill-advised attempt at humour.

Organisers will be glad of a blockbuster match-up to distract from calls by the Serbian embassy in Australia for Jones to be sanctioned. If Djokovic and Alcaraz go five sets, it will do much to move the narrative of the tournament on.

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“It’s definitely a very exciting match. Probably two of the most exciting players on tour playing each other,” said Holger Rune, beaten in the fourth round on Monday, one of many players who will be fitting watching the match into their schedule.

“It’s going to be an amazing match. Carlos, eager to win here. Novak, very, very eager.

“So it’s going to be a big battle. I don’t know if I’ll be on the plane or whatever. If I can, I’ll try to watch.”

With the sport watching on, The i Paper looks at where the match will be won and lost.

At the Olympic Games, their last meeting where Djokovic edged ahead 4-3 in the head-to-head, he made Alcaraz run early, going down the line at every opportunity, moving the Spaniard around. When they played at the same venue – Roland Garros – 15 months earlier, Alcaraz had been beset by huge cramps in his arms and legs, a combination of anxiety and fatigue, and perhaps Djokovic wanted to find out if it might happen again.

But it was also because Djokovic wanted to find Alcaraz’s forehand on the run. When set, his forehand is one of tennis’s greatest active weapons, and on occasion he can produce the spectacular on the run, but Djokovic has tried to isolate that particular shot, either by hitting his own forehand inside-in or taking his backhand down the line.

Getting Alcaraz to move into the forehand, rather than him hitting it while set, also negates his ability to hit the drop shot, the weapon of which he is arguably the tour’s leading exponent.

The Djokovic serve

Djokovic’s serving has become a notable feature of his game in later years, particularly after elbow surgery in 2018. He adjusted his service motion to put less strain through the joint and has somehow added more speed to the stroke too.

“All right, [John] Isner,” was how Frances Tiafoe described his thoughts when facing Djokovic here for the first time, referring to the towering American with an all-time serve. Tiafoe also pointed out that Djokvoic’s ball toss is virtually the same for each serve.

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That said, the No 7 seed has already been broken five times in this tournament, more than Alexander Zverev (four), Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner (three), and now faces just about the best returner of the fortnight.

Alcaraz has won a greater percentage of return games than almost any other player in the tournament at 44 per cent: only fellow quarter-finalist Tommy Paul (48) of the United States has a better mark.

This pair have only met once on an outdoor hard court, in the final of the 2023 Cincinnati Masters. It was a razor-tight affair won by Djokovic in three sets, but could provide some clues as to how this one will play out.

Djokovic was struggling in the Ohio summer heat, and serve-and-volleyed six times behind second serve, winning the point every time. This late-night clash – due on around 8.30pm local time – is unlikely to produce similar conditions, but it is still expected Djokovic, who has not been physically 100 per cent in Melbourne this year, will still be aggressive against Alcaraz, especially given the Spaniard’s baseline winning percentage in this tournament is 58 per cent, the best in the draw.

The physical battle

Between two such intrinsic baseliners, you would expect this match to come down, in part, to a war of attrition. Djokovic has had some physical issues since arriving in Australia, stretching out his hip in several matches and receiving a medical time-out because of breathing difficulties in his third-round win over Tomas Machac.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, has been lightly raced at the Australian Open and appears to have a significant advantage in terms of energy expended. He has spent just seven hours and 45 minutes on court in his four matches, helped by Jack Draper’s fourth-round retirement, while Djokovic has needed exactly 11 hours to reach the same stage.

Temperatures should have dipped well below 30°C by the time the match starts, but if it remains humid, those extra hours and minutes could prove crucial.

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