The Champions League returns this week to begin the final two rounds of the league phase.
The new-look format means teams play eight matches each in what used to be the group stage of the competition, with the top eight in the 36-team table granted automatic entry to the last 16 draw.
Those clubs who finish between ninth and 24th must then survive a two-legged play-off tie in February to earn their own place in the knockout phase.
After the first six matchdays, unbeaten Liverpool are currently in pole position to progress automatically while beleaguered Manchester City look destined to battle it out in the play-offs.
With Arsenal, Aston Villa and Celtic also in the mix, we take a look at what each team needs to qualify for the next phase of European football’s premier cup competition.
Arne Slot’s men, in short, need very little – and possibly nothing – to qualify straight into the round of 16 draw.
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Six wins from six so far in this season’s competition means they are top of the 36-team league phase table with the last remaining perfect record.
With 18 points – three more than second-placed Barcelona – and a top-24 place already secured, the Reds will almost certainly progress to the last 16 via automatic qualification.
They face Lille at Anfield on Tuesday before travelling to PSV Eindhoven on 29 January, when the last round of league phase fixtures all kick off together at 8pm UK time.
How many points needed to qualify from Champions League league phase
Before the campaign began, Opta’s supercomputer worked out that teams with 10 points at the end of the league phase had a 99 per cent chance of finishing in the top 24, thereby reaching at least the knockout phase play-offs.
Teams with 12 points were unlikely to trouble the top eight, but the chances slowly start creeping up on 13 points, with 14 points having a 28 per cent likelihood of making the top eight.
That jumps to 73 per cent with 15 points and 98 per cent for 16 points, meaning 17 points – which would require five wins, two draws and one loss – is essentially guaranteeing a top-eight spot.
Liverpool and Barcelona are the only two sides currently confirmed to finish in at least the top 24, but Arsenal aren’t far behind.
The Gunners are sat on 13 points, having won four, drawn one and lost one of their opening six matches.
It means Mikel Arteta and co would almost certainly progress straight to the round of 16 draw with one win from their remaining two fixtures, at home to Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday before Girona away next week.
Even a pair of draws could be enough, depending on results of the teams around them heading into the final two matchdays.
A place in the top 24, at the very least, is all but confirmed already.
Arteta does have more injuries to contend with than he did in Arsenal’s last European outing, though; Bukayo Saka has been out for weeks already and is highly unlikely to play a part in what’s left of this stage, the Gunners remain light up top, and defensive stalwart William Saliba was missing from this weekend’s slip up in the league.
Aston Villa
Level on points with Arsenal, and behind them and Bayer Leverkusen on goal difference alone, Aston Villa have a top eight finish within their grasp.
Unai Emery’s side travel to Monaco on Tuesday, before hosting Celtic next Wednesday.
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Read MoreWith 13 points, Villa face a similar scenario to the Gunners where two wins from two would guarantee a top eight finish, one win should be enough, two draws could still propel them straight into the last 16 draw but anything less than that may leave them risking a February play-off.
That is particularly true given they are one of six teams with the same points tally heading into matchday seven, while the four clubs just outside the current top eight – Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and AC Milan – are just one point behind.
A minimum of three more points will no doubt be Emery’s target, then. Their recent five-match unbeaten run, and just two losses in eight since his team’s last European appearance in early December, means the momentum to achieve that goal would appear to be with the Villans.
As things stand, Celtic are nestled in the table between the last two Champions League winners.
The men from Glasgow have an inferior goal difference to the majority of the teams around them, thanks to a 7-1 mauling at the hands of Dortmund in October.
But that remains their only loss so far in the competition, with a win and three draws since then meaning Brendan Rogers’s group should stay in the play-off qualification spots if they can take another point or two from their upcoming fixtures.
Automatic qualification may be out of reach, given such a feat would now demand back-to-back wins against Young Boys (H) – who are already eliminated – and Villa (A).
If Celtic – a team who have lost just twice in all competitions this season – can eke out a home win this week and jump up to 12 points, they will know they are almost certainly bound for next month’s play-offs.
Things could then get interesting in the Midlands, depending on where Villa stand by that point, as a draw for the Bhoys could clinch a ninth to 16th-placed finish and subsequent seeded play-off berth while there remains a chance that an underdog away win could then land them on the cusp of the top eight.
Man City
Few, if any, football fans would have expected in September to find City here with two rounds of matches to go, but 22nd is where they are after winning just two of their opening six games.
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Read MoreWith a 0-2 loss to Juventus last time out leaving them on eight points, City look destined for a two-legged play-off next month.
Even two wins against Paris Saint-Germain (A) – who themselves face a battle to qualify, sitting 25th in the table with seven points at present – and Club Brugge (H) would now see Pep Guardiola’s crew up to only 14 points in total.
That could well be enough to take a seeded spot in the play-offs, though, as could a win and a draw depending on results elsewhere.
A win and a loss to end with 11 points, or even two draws to finish on 10 points, should be enough to squeak through to the play-offs as an unseeded team (17th-24th), according to Opta.
But lose in Paris on Wednesday, and it will be a high-stakes night in Manchester next week as the men in sky blue battle to turn their season back around.
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