ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD weaker session – no tariff news is good news ...Middle East

US poltics - Vivek Ramaswamy to depart DOGEIs the Stock Market Open Today?Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (Nov) -0.3% (expected 0.1%, prior 0.1%)Japan data - Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)-2.2% (expected -2.3%, prior -2.3%)The USD has begun the week very softBitcoin Futures Analysis for TodayTrump to declare a National Energy Emergency - will enable him to use new powersJapanese Yen Futures Analysis for TodayReports that a Tesla vehicle on autopilot has crashed into a retail storeChina's Vice President Han Zheng meets Musk and also VanceIts started - the Fed blackout period, that isTrump says he'll sign nearly 100 executive orders within hours of taking officeApple has cut the price of some iPhone models in China - government subsidy announced2 reasons (and others) Barclays still like USD/JPYRecapping Japan’s core machinery orders in November, results exceeding expectationsPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1886 (vs. estimate at 7.3353)PBOC sets one and five year loan prime rates unchangedBank of Japan expected to raise rates this week - but there is a hurdle to overcome firstBank of America survey shows long US dollar is now considered the most crowded tradeUK home asking prices show biggest early-year rise since 2020Japan November machine orders rocket higher: +3.4% m/m (expected -0.4%) +10.3% y/y (+5.6%)JP Morgan forecasts a PBOC RRR and rate cut after Lunar New YearPBOC may cut RRR before the Lunar New Year holidayNomura are expecting a March Fed rate cut then a US inflationary shock due to tariffsReminder - US markets are closed on Monday, January 20, 2025Trump spoke at a rally - hinted at action on immigration and energy (nothing on tariffs)Leaks around Trump's 'day one' executive orders have not mentioned tariffs at allTrade ideas thread - Monday, 20 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasTrump to issue executive orders on immigration, energy, government hiring policies soonMonday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 20 January 2025Newsquawk Week Ahead: BoJ, PBoC, PMIs, UK jobs, Inflation data from Canada, Japan and NZWeekly Market Outlook (20-24 January)A technical view of the major currency pairs going into the new trading weekGreenland, Canada and the Panama Canal: What is the real plan here?Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 17 Jan: US Supreme Court affirms decision to shut TikTok.

News crossed early via a Wall Street Journal report that while Trump was planning a number of executive orders within hours of being sworn in as President on Monday, US time (he is being sworn in at noon US Eastern time) he would not be issuing orders on tariffs. The Journal reported this on the basis of unnamed sources briefed on a call from Stephen Miller, Trump’s incoming White House deputy chief of staff for policy. Over the session here ‘risk’ FX moved higher against the USD. Whether the report turns out to be correct is the next question. If not it’ll set up a retrace higher for USD. A sharp one I’d suggest. Something to eye in the hours ahead.

Other news revolved around the People’s Bank of China leaving China’s benchmark lending rates unchanged at the monthly fixing on Monday. A weakening yuan has limited PBoC monetary easing options a little. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.1%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 3.6%. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.

There was little yen-related news but JPY took a big stick to the weaker USD with gusto. USD/JPY popped initially to highs above 156.50 but fell back to lows under 155.75 at one stage.

Back to Trump’s executive orders. Later news focused on Trump poised to invoke emergency powers as part of his plan to unleash domestic energy production (see bullets above).

Note that Monday is a US market holiday. I’ve posted a run down on market closures (some futures markets are opened for some trading on Monday):

Reminder - US markets are closed on Monday, January 20, 2025

USD/JPY up

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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