Kremlin officials are cautiously welcoming the return of Donald Trump and building relations with his administration, while aiming to avoid reviving “Russiagate” scandals that dogged Trump’s first term, and tempering expectations about his policies on Ukraine.
The Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, praised the president-elect – who takes office on 20 January – for raising Nato expansion as a factor in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Nato did exactly what it had promised not to do, and Trump said that,” he said on Tuesday. “It marked the first such candid acknowledgement not only from a US but any Western leader.”
State media reported comments from a foreign ministry official on Wednesday proposing a meeting between Trump and President Vladimir Putin to “resolve” the war.
“Donald Trump stated that he would contribute to resolving the Ukraine crisis. The time has come to move to the next stage and fulfil the promises made,” said diplomat Oleg Karpovich.
Moscow’s stated conditions before potential talks include that Russia must retain four regions of Ukraine its forces annexed in 2022, and that Ukraine must never join Nato – both terms rejected by Kyiv and its allies, although Trump and his team have expressed greater openness.
Trump said on Monday that he intended to meet Putin “very quickly” after taking office next week.
Trump campaigned on a promise to end the Ukraine war on ‘Day One’ of his term (Photo: Ukrainian Armed Forces/ Reuters)Russian officials are in direct dialogue with members of Trump’s team, the independent Russian outlet Moscow Times reported this week, citing unnamed Kremlin sources. Communications are said to be secretive to avoid Trump being accused of collusion with Russia, as he was in his first term.
“Both our and Trump’s team have learned lessons from the past, when imprudence and insufficient restraint led to the scandal of election interference accusations, which ultimately greatly restricted Trump’s freedom of action,” one Russian official said.
Trump’s recent comments advocating annexation of Canada and Greenland are said to have encouraged Putin’s regime.
“This allows us to say that anything is possible, the old rules no longer work. Just look: even the US, which sets the rules, isn’t willing to abide by them,” a Russian diplomat told Moscow Times.
Trump repeatedly criticised US aid to Ukraine on the campaign trail and pledged to end the war on day one of his term, widely interpreted as a message that Kyiv would have to abandon efforts to regain the 18 per cent of its territory that is occupied by Russia.
But Trump’s position has evolved as inauguration day approaches. His team have reportedly given private assurances to European partners that weapons shipments to Ukraine will continue, while the president-elect has walked back his commitment to achieve a swift ceasefire, and appointed Russia hawks such as Marco Rubio to his cabinet.
The Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, said Trump would not disengage with Ukraine after meeting him in Florida this month.
“Trump has the ability to use both diplomacy and deterrence and I expect this will happen this time too,” she said.
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni says Trump would not abandon Ukraine (Photo: Filippo Attili/Palazzo Chigi/AFP/Getty)Russian hardliners have suggested sidelining Europe and resolving the war through bilateral talks with Trump’s administration.
“Negotiations on Ukraine should be conducted between Russia and the US without the participation of other Western countries,” said Nikolai Patrushev, a senior Putin aide and former spy chief, in an interview this week. “There is nothing to talk about with London and Brussels.”
Patrushev went on to express concern that Trump’s stated intention to scale back US involvement in Ukraine could also be thwarted by elements of the so-called deep state – a term often used by Trump to describe alleged shadowy interests in government.
“As Trump’s first term demonstrated, the notorious deep state in the US is very strong,” he said. “It is clear that his position is not shared by all US elites.”
Analysis by the Valdai Club, a hawkish think-tank based in Moscow and favoured by Putin, also suggested that Trump was unlikely to resolve the conflict on terms favourable to Russia.
“Contrary to optimistic expectations, the new administration is unlikely to initiate a comprehensive settlement in Ukraine,” wrote political scientist Andrey Sushentsov. “A more likely scenario for the development of events will be a US move to ‘freeze’ the conflict.”
Such a move would keep a US adversary occupied while maintaining European dependence on the US, Sushentsov wrote.
The Kremlin will seek to engage the Trump administration in broad discussions over international security, said Anton Barbashin, editorial director of Riddle, a Russian political analysis journal based abroad.
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Read More“They will try to make their vision of conflict resolution the framework and they will probably demand quite a lot beyond the scope of Ukraine,” he said. “The European security order, sanctions, the Middle East and Iran. Russia will be putting a lot on the table to discuss.
“With regards to Ukraine, there has to be – in the eyes of Moscow – a commitment from the US to guarantee the neutral status of Ukraine, and basically a Russian veto on what Ukraine can have in terms of security, such as what arms they can possess. The exact size of the territories Russia is annexing is a secondary issue.
“It’s looking like a very hard conversation now, and there are plenty of ways it could go wrong. I would say there is a one in 50 chance it works.”
The Kremlin is increasingly pessimistic that Trump will agree to its hardline positions, Mr Barbashin believes. “They feel that the ‘deep state’ will spoil the talks,” he said.
Max Hess, a Eurasia analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said there was “giddiness” within the Russian establishment over Trump’s moves on Greenland and Canada, which could further legitimise unilateral annexations. But expectations were limited.
“I don’t think the Kremlin is thrilled that Trump is taking over but they see him as somebody they can do business with,” he said.
Trump is likely to “at least entertain the idea” of bilateral negotiations with Russia that sideline Europe and Ukraine, Mr Hess believes, but notes that elements of his policy team have also mooted the idea of increasing weapons to supplies to Ukraine to improve its leverage in negotiations.
Ultimately, the war in Ukraine is not one of Trump’s top priorities and his views are changeable, said Mr Hess. “So it’s all to play for.”
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