Overall Economic Activity:
Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December.Consumer spending moved up moderately, with strong holiday sales exceeding expectations.Vehicle sales grew modestly.Construction activity decreased, with high costs for materials and financing weighing on growth.Manufacturing decreased slightly on net; some manufacturers stockpiled inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs.Residential real estate activity was unchanged, constrained by high mortgage rates.Commercial real estate sales edged up.Nonfinancial services sector grew slightly, with growth in leisure, hospitality, and transportation (notably air travel).Truck freight volumes declined.Financial service providers reported modest growth in lending and little change in asset quality, but concerns arose about delinquencies among small businesses and lower-income households.Nonprofit social service agencies faced high demand amidst uncertainty about funding.Agricultural conditions remained weak, with lower farm incomes and weather-related struggles. Avian flu reduced egg supplies, raising prices.Energy activity was mixed.More optimism about 2025 outlook, though concerns remain about immigration and tariff policy affecting the economy.Labor Markets:
Prices:
Prices increased modestly overall, with growth ranging from flat to moderate.Selling prices rose modestly in most Districts, with some instances of flat or declining prices, particularly in retail and manufacturing.Input costs increased, particularly for insurance prices (notably health insurance).Flat or lower input costs were reported in some areas, especially for fuel.Prices expected to rise in 2025, with concerns about higher tariffs contributing to price increases.District Summary:
Boston
Economic activity increased slightly, with modest growth in tourism, home sales, and retail sales.Prices were steady despite slight cost pressures.Employment stable; wages increased modestly.Optimistic expectations, though some uncertainty remains.New York
Economic activity increased slightly; employment grew slightly.Stronger-than-expected holiday retail sales.Commercial real estate markets improved slightly, especially NYC office demand.Selling prices rose modestly, with manufacturers reporting stable prices.Philadelphia
Business activity grew slightly, with auto sales leading consumer spending.Manufacturers reported a slight decline in activity.Employment and wages rose modestly.Inflation concerns driven by deficits, tariffs, and immigration.Cleveland
Business activity grew modestly; stronger-than-expected retail sales.Manufacturers experienced soft demand.Employment flat; wages and prices grew modestly.Positive outlook for the coming months.Richmond
Modest economic growth with moderate increases in consumer spending and travel.Financial services reported modest growth; manufacturing slowed slightly.Employment unchanged; price growth moderate.Atlanta
Economic activity expanded modestly; employment steady, wages grew slowly.Consumer spending and housing demand grew moderately.Manufacturing declined slightly, while energy activity grew modestly.Chicago
Slight growth in economic activity; modest increases in consumer spending and employment.Construction and real estate remained flat.Farm incomes in 2024 were below 2023 levels.Prices and wages grew modestly.St. Louis
Slight economic expansion; holiday sales exceeded expectations.Reports reflected a seasonal slowdown, but contacts were positive about the year ahead.Minneapolis
Slight growth in economic activity; employment increased slightly.Holiday sales were upbeat, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.Manufacturing contracted modestly, but optimism remains for 2024.Kansas City
Slight expansion in economic activity, led by consumer spending.Consumers relied more on long-term financing and debt consolidation.Optimism for accelerated growth and hiring in coming months, though concerns over policy changes persist.Dallas
Moderate expansion in the economy; manufacturing resumed growth.Retail revenues and loan demand expanded.Home sales increased slightly, but energy activity remained flat.Employment rose slightly, with improving outlooks despite policy concerns.San Francisco
Slight expansion in economic activity; employment and prices were stable.Retail sales grew modestly, while activity in agriculture softened slightly.Manufacturing and commercial real estate were mixed, with steady housing and lending activit This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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