The Hawaii swing is over as the PGA Tour returns to the continental 48 for the third tournament of the season.
This week’s American Express at La Quinta Country Club features an $8.8 million purse but attracts another relatively weaker field. Scottie Scheffler is still recovering from a hand injury over the holidays while Xander Schauffele withdrew for unspecified medical reasons, according to the Associated Press.
Only eight of the top-25 ranked golfers in the world are teeing it up this week in California, though there are plenty of big names like Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau participating.
Let’s make some picks. Tail (or fade) responsibly!
All odds via BetMGM
American Express 2025 Winner
The 10th green has been restored to its original form at the Stadium Course at PGA West and will be played during next month’s American Express in La Quinta, Calif., Dec, 17, 2024.
Sungjae Im (+1200) 0.5 Units
The 26-year-old from South Korea has played five tournaments at La Quinta and finished within the top 25 each time. So recent history is a huge factor here. Par 3 scoring remains a concern for Im and at La Quinta, but when he’s striking the ball clean and playing aggressive, he puts himself in excellent position to make up strokes. Last season, when going for the green on his first (par 4) or second (par 5) shot, Im made birdie or better 70.56 percent of the time. The best mark on Tour. If he can avoid bogeys on the par 3s, this could be the year Im captures the AmEx.
Sam Burns (+1400) 0.5 Units
After finishing T8 at the season-opening Sentry in Hawaii, Burns took last week off at the Sony Open. He returns to the field as one of the favorites, but we’re not too concerned about that. He’s made the cut all four times he’s played at La Quinta with two sixth-place finishes and having never missed the top 25. In a smaller field, sometimes the obvious plays are the right plays.
Adam Hadwin (+6600) 0.25 Units
Speaking of obvious plays, Hadwin feels a bit mis-priced here. While he wasn’t lights out in either of the first two tournaments of the season, he did make the cut at both The Sentry and Sony Open. Now he returns to a LQCC he’s had little trouble with over the years — including two runner-up finishes. More impressively, he’s shot over 70 just once in his last 20 rounds at La Quinta. What are we missing here?
Top 10 Finish
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Justin Thomas (+125) 3 Units
Now that JT is in his “pissed off golf” Era, it’s worth giving him the benefit of the doubt. OK, really it’s more the fact he shot back-to-back rounds of 68-63 to close out the Sentry and surge into a tie for 26th after a blah start to the week. That should carry over well to La Quina, where he finished third last year.
Will Zalatoris (+350) 2 Units
The big question is whether or not Zalatoris is healthy. Working back into form In 2024 after back surgery ended his 2023 season, the 28-year-old had a mostly forgettable year. So he added some weight — about 20 pounds — to give him some more stamina on the course. The AmEx is a perfect proving ground to see it in action. Zalatoris has a strong course history here, too, having made the cut in all three of his starts including a sixth-place finish in 2022. In 12 rounds at LQCC, Zalatoris has shot over 70 just twice.
Who’s Missing The Cut?
Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
J.T. Poston (+170) 2 Units
No offense to Poston, who does have a decent history at LQCC, but his inconsistent start to the year in Hawaii has me a bit weary about transitioning to the desert. I’ll take a flier on him heading home early.
Lee Hodges (+125) 2 Units
This is, admittedly, a weird pick. Hodges is not a bad player by any means and proved as much with a T10 finish at The Sentry. But after finishing third at the AmEx in in 2022, he’s missed the cut there in back-to-back outings. So, sure. Let’s see if he makes in three in a row.
One-And-Done
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Adam Hadwin
It was either Hadwin or Im, and I’m not ready to use Sungjae just yet. Besides all the reasons listed above, there aren’t too many opportunities to use Hadwin unless you’re saving him for the Canadian Open. Which, fair. He has just one PGA Tour victory on his resume, but 23 finishes in the top 10 — five of those came at La Quinta.
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Hadwin has also been particularly sound at navigating the club’s par 3s.
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After missing the cut with Benny An at the Sony Open last week (I’m not ready to talk about it) I’m hoping Hadwin comes through in a big way to get me on the board.
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