After large drops during the pandemic, life expectancy in the United States should recover to 2019 levels this year nationally and in 26 states — but not as fast as it should compared with similar countries, according to a new study.
Bad habits such as junk food, smoking and illicit drug use are preventing longer lifespans even as technology brings major progress in diseases such as cancer and heart disease, according to a new study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
By 2050, U.S. life expectancy is projected to increase from 79.1 years to 80.4 years for babies born in that year, a modest improvement that would drop the United States behind nearly all other high-income countries, according to the study.
Poverty and inadequate health insurance are slowing progress in some states. Wealthier, more urban and better-educated states are doing better and are more likely to adopt policies that save lives, from curbing gun access to offering income supports for young mothers. Nine of the 10 states (all but North Dakota) with the longest life expectancies for babies born this year are dominated by Democrats, and all 10 have expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. All 10 states with the shortest life expectancies are controlled by Republicans (though Kentucky has a Democratic governor), and they include five of the 10 states that have not expanded Medicaid.
A Stateline analysis of data from the study shows how some states have risen, and some have tumbled, in terms of life expectancy.
In 1990, for example, New York and West Virginia were nearly tied at Nos. 39 and 41 among states’ life expectancy rankings. But the two have since taken sharply different paths — New York rose to No. 3 in 2024 and is projected to have the longest life expectancy of any state by 2050, passing Hawaii and Massachusetts.
West Virginia outranks only Mississippi in 2024 and is projected to be last among states in 2050. North Carolina, which was ranked 40th in 1990, has only moved up to 38th spot and is projected to remain there.
New York has benefited from good health care availability in New York City hospitals as well as state policies such as strict gun laws that have curbed suicides, and harm reduction policies to curb overdose deaths with supervised use sites and other controversial programs, said Brett Harris, president of the New York State Public Health Association and an associate professor in the University of Albany’s Department of Health Policy.
Harris said she’s not surprised that New York state, despite its ascent in life expectancy among states, would still drop from No. 33 to No. 41 by 2050 if ranked as a nation, according to the analysis.
“I think part of that is how individualistic we are in this country, the idea of always trying to get ahead, versus more of a community-based environment in other countries,” Harris said. “Their social policies tend to be better for health outcomes. If you live in more of a family environment versus an individualistic environment, that builds in more support.”
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