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MR. BREMMER: So, I mean, for a lot of us here, this is the coolest thing going on in New York City right now. There’s a lot of self-selection in this crowd. (Applause.) So, a very warm welcome to my friend, Jake Sullivan. And also, just to say, we’re going to run this for, like, you know, 45 minutes, an hour, and then we’ll get some questions from the audience, which will be fun. They’ll come in on cards, so please fill them out, make them interesting and hard and engaging, because we both like that. And also, this is being livestreamed, and I don’t know if they have any capacity to send us questions, and I suspect we’ll ignore those. But nonetheless, we’re delighted that there are people that are joining us. So with all of that, Jake, welcome. MR. SULLIVAN: Thank you for having me. It’s really good to be here. MR. BREMMER: Thank you for being here. You just got back from the Middle East. MR. SULLIVAN: Yes. MR. BREMMER: We’re going to talk about the whole world, but maybe start there. You know, in the last year, you and I have spoken a lot more about the Middle East than we had before. I’m wondering, in terms of biggest surprises, is it how much the Israelis have established, reestablished escalation dominance? Is it Iran and the Axis of Resistance looking like a big deal and then imploding? Is it what just happened with Assad and the rollout in Syria? Where would you stack the “this is the thing that we probably least expected”? MR. SULLIVAN: Yes. (Laughter.) I mean, not to be — every one of those pieces has been maybe not surprising directionally, in the sense that, you know, one could see the ways in which Israel — frankly, backed by the United States in terms of much of what it has accomplished — was taking the fight to its enemies. One could see the weakening and the fracturing of the Axis of Resistance and the weakening of Iran. And one could see the pressure on Assad, particularly because his two main patrons, Iran and Russia, were distracted and weakened. But the speed, the scope, and the scale of the remaking of the Middle East in this short amount of time, I think you’d find very few people who could have predicted all of that and that we would be sitting here in December of 2024 with the picture looking the way that it looks. MR. BREMMER: Does the picture today look at least modestly more stable than it did a year ago, or does it look worse? MR. SULLIVAN: You know, I’ve been reflecting on this question, because the thing about foreign policy and geopolitics is that when good things happen, often bad things follow. When bad things happen, often good things follow. And nothing is ever fixed in time. There’s always something around the corner. So is there a huge opportunity right now? Absolutely. In that sense, the possibility of a more stable, integrated Middle East, where our friends are stronger, our enemies are weaker — that is real. And in fact, Iran is at its weakest point in — MR. BREMMER: Decades. MR. SULLIVAN: — in modern memory. On the other hand, there are huge risk factors, and you can see them maybe most in living color in Syria, where the Syrian people have the chance to build a better future in a post-Assad world, but where there are very evil people who are looking to take advantage of this current moment, starting with ISIS, but other terrorist and jihadist groups as well. And it will take collective resolve, wisdom, and willingness to act in order to ensure that we don’t see in Syria what we had previously seen in Libya, but on a larger scale where the geography is actually even more dangerous for not just our interests, but the interests of our friends and allies. So I think we’re at a moment of profound opportunity but also a moment of profound risk, and that means that we have to handle this situation with clarity and effectiveness. And the interesting thing is this comes in the middle of a presidential transition in the United States. MR. BREMMER: Which makes it harder for you. MR. SULLIVAN: It makes it harder because — MR. BREMMER: I’m thinking specifically Syria, for example. Right? MR. SULLIVAN: Yeah, I mean, it makes it harder because — you know, and this is something that my successor, Mike Waltz, has actually said — other countries, other actors, particularly our enemies and adversaries, look at transitions as moments of opportunity, because you have this seam between an outgoing administration and incoming administration. And so, the imperative on us, both the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration, has to be to lash up more tightly than is typical, to spend more time together than is typical, and to try to ensure we are sending a common, clear message to both friends and adversaries in the Middle East, and we have endeavored to do that over the last few weeks. Obviously, we disagree on a lot of things under the sun, including perhaps on certain aspects of long-term strategy in the Middle East or elsewhere, but where we agree is on many of the fundamentals here and especially on the point that we should not let anyone take advantage of the United States during this time of transition. And so that has meant that Congressman Waltz and me and other people on each of our teams have tried to work so closely together. MR. BREMMER: Because I’m going to dig in more on Iran and the Middle East than other pieces. But before I do, I want to beat on this, which is that, you know, I think some people were surprised that when Trump won, that Biden and President-elect Trump had a very civil sit-down discussion in the White House, despite what they had both said about each other over the previous months. And more recently, you’ve had several very constructive meetings with the incoming National Security Advisor. And frankly, my sense is that the alignment in how both of you see the world is a lot more similar on a bunch of policies than most people in the public would presume. Is that a fair thing to say? MR. SULLIVAN: I think it’s fair at an elemental level of each of us being totally committed to the American national interest, each of us recognizing that we have real adversaries in the world, one of them being Iran, and we have friends and allies who we need to stand up and defend and back, one of them being Israel. And so, that gives you a basis to work on. Now, you know, I have been myself, President Biden has, the rest of our national security team has been subject to lots of criticism from President Trump’s team over the course of the past years. We’ve criticized President Trump’s statements and record on foreign policy. So it’s not like we see everything the same way. But at this moment, on big-ticket items, when we need some degree of smoothness and continuity in the handoff from one administration to the next, I think both the outgoing and incoming administrations see the bigger picture. And that’s really important. We will get back to the debates on hard issues and real disagreements, and there will be things that the next administration does that I won’t like. I will tell you, I’ll be a lot less vocal about that probably. Having sat in this seat for four years and listened to people criticize what we do, one thing I’ve realized is unless you’re sitting in this seat — MR. BREMMER: It’s hard. MR. SULLIVAN: — it’s hard. But for this moment, what we are trying to do on behalf of the national interest of the United States I think is extremely important, despite, you know, the deep differences that do exist in terms of the outgoing and incoming president and outgoing and incoming administration. MR. BREMMER: Now, I mean, the Iran story — which, of course, is America’s biggest adversary in the Middle East — I would argue we’ve managed — you’ve managed quite well over the last year. I mean, there were many moments, at least a couple of moments, where people were very concerned that this could lead into a direct kinetic war between Iran and Israel that the Americans would have to get involved in. And a lot of proactive diplomacy thus far has prevented that from happening. Now, in part, that’s because Iran is in such an abysmal strategic position, and they’ve lost so much. If you’re Iran right now, how much are you trying to just do anything possible to stabilize relations with other countries around the world? How much are you thinking, “Oh, my God, if I don’t, like, get nukes at some point, I’m in serious trouble”? Is it all of the above? I mean, what do you think their strategic calculus is? MR. SULLIVAN: Well, I think their strategic calculus has a couple of levels. One level is: Can we turn to other significant countries in the world to provide us capabilities that right now have been badly weakened and degraded. Take their air defenses, for example. So, they look to the Russians, but the Russians have their hands full — MR. BREMMER: They’re busy. MR. SULLIVAN: — with Ukraine. Can’t help. Perhaps they look to Beijing. But two years ago, you and I would have sat and talked about how China is on the come in the Middle East, they’re going to become a major player, they’re going to be a mover and shaker. Where have they been in the last year? Completely absent. MR. BREMMER: Almost radio silence. MR. SULLIVAN: So Iran, in this kind of alignment of autocracies — Iran, Russia, China, North Korea — which is a real factor that we have to look at — in practice, it’s not exactly a solution here to Iran’s problems. So, then there’s this question: What about Iran’s nuclear program? And here, you can look at the public statements of Iranian officials, which have changed in the last few months as they have been dealt these strategic blows, to raise the question: Do we have to change our doctrine at some point? MR. BREMMER: Members of Iranian parliament (inaudible). MR. SULLIVAN: And the fact that that’s coming out publicly is something that has to be looked at extremely carefully. We have to consult closely with Israel on that, with our Gulf partners, with our European allies, and with others as we go forward. And I will tell you that, you know, when ...
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Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Remarks by APNSA Jake Sullivan in a Conversation with Ian Bremmer on the State of National Security )
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