It seems fitting that the Heisman Trophy went to a non-quarterback this season. When I look at the first 12-team College Football Playoff, the thing that immediately catches my eye is the lack of bonafide stars at the quarterback position. Yes, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel is in the mix. But beyond that, the best quarterbacks are playing in non-CFP bowl games.
Nine of the top 10 quarterbacks nationally in EPA are playing (or sitting out) in non-CFP bowl games. That list includes Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, 2 players who are expected to be high first-round draft picks in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Instead, what we find are the best teams in the country this season. I put quite a bit of stock in Game on Paper‘s opponent-adjusted net EPA-per-play metric. Eight of the top 12 teams in that specific metric are in the CFP. Clemson and Arizona State (2 AQs) are the only teams to not rank in the top 15.
Seven of the 12 Playoff participants also have defenses that rank ninth or better in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. The 5 teams whose defenses aren’t inside the top 25 are the 5 conference champs who automatically qualified.
This isn’t new, of course. Since Cardale Jones led Ohio State to the national championship in 2014, only 3 of the last 9 title-winning quarterbacks were top-5 in EPA. Five quarterbacks have been outside the top 15.
I do wonder if, in the absence of a Herculean-type passer (a la Joe Burrow), we see chaos in this first 12-team CFP. The 2024 season was marked by volatility and parity. And yet, none of the first-round games have point spreads under a touchdown at ESPN Bet.
There’s a degree of unpredictability to this postseason that has me excited. We could get a couple of first-round blowouts. I think we could just as easily see some remarkable upsets.
Below, you’ll find my picks for every single Playoff game, all the way through the CFP National Championship.
Beyond the first-round games, you’ll find projections for each point spread. In the quarterfinals, FanDuel has hypothetical spreads for every potential matchup, and those will be listed as well.
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame — First Round, Dec. 20
Against Ohio State and Michigan, Indiana averaged 3.5 yards per play, 0.304 points per play, and 11 yards per point. Every single snap was a grind. Every single point had to be strenuously earned. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been sacked 17 times all year and 9 of those came from the Wolverines and the Buckeyes. Notre Dame’s defense ranks fifth in SP+, an elite unit that eliminates the explosive plays, forces teams to grind out drives, and then punishes them for the mistakes that inevitably come when offenses have to pound the ball. Teams have been able to run on Notre Dame, but Indiana’s offense isn’t built to line up and run through a defense that has the kind of next-level talent Notre Dame boasts. I think it’s far more likely Notre Dame does to Indiana what Ohio State and Michigan did. The Irish have the personnel to wear this IU team down.
PICK: Notre Dame to cover -7 (-115 via ESPN Bet)
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State — First Round, Dec. 21
After SMU opened the ACC title game in disastrous fashion, the defense locked in and got the Ponies back into the game. SMU fumbled 3 plays into its opening drive, went 3-and-out on its second drive, and threw a pick on its fourth drive to spot Clemson a 21-7 lead after the first quarter. Clemson scored touchdowns on each of its first 3 drives, needing just 14 total plays and 136 yards to gain 21 points. Over its final 11 offensive possessions (excluding 3 runs that ran out the final 35 seconds of the first half), Clemson averaged 3.3 yards per play with 7 punts. This is a wonderful run-stopping defense, and SMU proved it would scale against a Playoff-caliber opponent. With Penn State, SMU can stack the box and dare Drew Allar to beat it over the top with a collection of wide receivers that just won’t frighten many top-end defenses. With Penn State’s penchant for blowing it in big games — since winning the Big Ten in 2016, James Franklin is 4-17 against AP Top 15 teams — a tight game would have everyone in Happy Valley spooked. I think Penn State’s talent ultimately wins out, but I don’t think this SMU team is a pushover either.
PICK: SMU to cover +8.5 (-105 via BetMGM), Penn State to win outright (ML -310 via DraftKings)
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas — First Round, Dec. 21
I think the Texas defense can make life difficult for a Clemson offense that has struggled against similar competition. But I’m also not convinced the Texas offense can run away with this football game. Quarterback Quinn Ewers didn’t seem healthy to close out the regular season. Wideout Isaiah Bond has been a no-show in the biggest moments. Steve Sarkisian has shown a reluctance to attack the middle of the field with the vertical pass game despite Texas possessing one of the better tight ends in the game (Gunnar Helm). Texas has managed touchdowns on just 2 of its 8 trips to the red zone in its last 2 games. And the offense has scored points from only 3 of its 13 opening drives this season. They’re more likely to turn the football over than they are to score on opening drives this year, which is remarkable considering Sarkisian’s reputation as a game-scripter. Something just seems off. Texas wins, but it’s closer than it should be.
PICK: Clemson to cover +12 (-110 via DraftKings), Texas to win outright (ML -400 via BetMGM)
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State — First Round, Dec. 21
The Vols give up 2.8 yards per carry, which ranks fourth nationally. Per Game on Paper, the UT defense sits in the 90th percentile for stuff rate, in the 96th percentile for line yards allowed, in the 97th percentile for EPA per run allowed, and in the 99th percentile for opportunity rate allowed. The defensive front is winning and the second level is crashing hard to the ball to clean up everything else. This will be the best defense Ohio State has seen all year, and if it can’t run the football — which it has struggled to do at times against bigger, more athletic fronts — I don’t trust the Buckeyes. After a so-so regular season, this could be the game where Nico Iamaleava busts out. Ohio State’s corners are grabby and way too beatable. Tennessee has the receivers to exploit those matchups on the outside. With that in mind, this becomes a sneaky intriguing game for Bru McCoy. I’d look for Josh Heupel to have something for him given Ohio State’s struggles at both outside corner spots this year. Iamaleava has an adjusted completion percentage of just 38.6% on throws of at least 20 yards this season. He averaged 1.3 completions on 3.7 attempts per game on those throws. What does that number look like when this game is over? If he’s something like 3-for-5, Tennessee wins. If he’s 1-for-4, Tennessee is probably losing. I’m going out on a limb, banking on the former happening, and picking this to be the only “upset” of the first round.
PICK: Tennessee to win outright (ML +240 via BetMGM)
No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State — Quarterfinal, Dec. 31 (Fiesta Bowl)
Projection: Penn State -8.5 | FanDuel: Penn State -11.5
No one has been able to slow Ashton Jeanty this year. No one. The bruising tailback from Boise State stands upright in the backfield, takes the handoff, plows into an 8- or 9-man box, bounces off a couple of tacklers, and gets to the sideline to create a footrace. The contact balance is special. The pairing of athleticism and strength is next-level. Boise State has been much more reluctant to use him as a weapon out of the backfield in the passing game, but that’s something it found success with a year ago. He’s the engine. Per Pro Football Focus, he has 1,889 yards after contact this season, more than 63 other FBS teams have total rushing yards on the year. His 134 missed tackles forced are a PFF-era record (since 2014). Boise State’s scheme is remarkably balanced between zone running and gap schemes, and Jeanty is averaging north of 10 yards per carry when running at either tackle. Entering the season, Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard (2019) was the last FBS tailback to have more than 6 carries that gained at least 50 yards in a single season. Jeanty has 12 such runs.
But the Mountain West’s best run defense (UNLV by rushing success rate) would be the Big Ten’s seventh-best. This is a step up in competition that Boise State has not had to make since September when the Broncos visited Eugene, Oregon. When Jeanty faced the Ducks, he ran for 192 yards and 3 scores on 25 carries. I imagine that game will be heavily referenced if these 2 teams face off. Per Game on Paper, Penn State’s defense ranks 29th nationally in rushing success rate allowed. Oregon ranks 98th. The run defense has been the Achilles heel for the Ducks all season. Penn State fans will know that intimately. Boise will find it much tougher to run on Penn State and I don’t see a reason for Penn State to give Jeanty light boxes early on. Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen is going to have to beat Tom Allen’s defense.
The other way, Boise State’s defense is a problem. The Broncos give up far too many explosive plays and that was a major issue in the Oregon game. The Ducks had an 18% explosive play rate that day and hit a couple of huge shots in the pass game. While Boise State has struggled on third down at times this year, Oregon was far better on first down. Dillon Gabriel completed all 11 of his passes on first down against the Broncos and the Ducks averaged 9 yards per play. And that was before Oregon’s offense started operating at peak efficiency.
In the MWC title game, Boise State started 6 defensive backs, 3 down linemen, and a 6-foot-3, 253-pound edge rusher. Penn State should be able to run the ball effectively on early downs, which will give Andy Kotelnicki access to some of his gadget plays for Tyler Warren. Penn State takes this by 2...
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