If you’re reading a Guillotine Leagues waiver wire strategy piece ahead of Wednesday’s FAAB selection, congratulations! You were one of the three teams that passed under the guillotine without getting chopped. Fifteen weeks down, only three more to go to a championship.
As of Week 15, teams are not allowed to bid on chopped players, so the more traditional waiver wire strategies will apply in Week 16 and Week 17.
With so many eliminated teams now thrown on the trash pile, there are going to be some elite players that were chopped last week (Jahmyr Gibbs and Puka Nacua in mine, for example), but those players will just cruelly stare at you on waivers this week. As we head into the fifteenth FAAB run of the season on Wednesday, what’s the best strategy for whatever funds you have left this season?
This weekly piece will look at a selection of the best waiver wire players across Guillotine Leagues to see how we should bid on them. If you’re looking for more Guillotine Leagues content, be sure to check out Chop: The Guillotine Leagues Podcast, releasing each week.
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Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (Rostered in 20.5% of Guillotine Leagues)
With just three teams left in standard Guillotine Leagues, analyzing things like matchup and opportunity cost has never been more important. Unless you have a quarterback named Lamar, Burrow, Allen, or Hurts, you might just be ready for someone else in this pivotal week. Of the options that are readily available like Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert, who is the best available choice if you have been getting by with the likes of someone like Mahomes or Brock Purdy lately?
Darnold is the QB6 in fantasy points per game over the last five weeks. He has found a supernatural connection with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and that pair has seven touchdowns between them in the last four games. Darnold gets the Seattle Seahawks next who were just torched by Jordan Love and who have allowed two passing touchdowns per game over the last three weeks.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (18.2%)
Jared Goff has actually been even better than Sam Darnold over the last five weeks, supported by his Week 11 and Week 15 performance where he averaged 38 fantasy points per game (even more in Guillotine Leagues scoring). With David Montgomery now out of the picture, the ball will have to be in the air more. Add in the fact that the Lions now have to be in win-every-game mode now that they have fallen into a tie with Philadelphia and Minnesota, and they should be in full force on offense for the rest of the season.
The Lions have already been throwing the ball 69.5% of the time in the last three weeks, ranking second in the NFL during that span. Chicago can stop the run, so Detroit should look to try and exploit them through the air. If your Guillotine Leagues team is in need of a player who can provide an offensive shot in the arm. Goff has shown he has 4-5 touchdown potential in any given game.
Running Backs
James Cook, Buffalo Bills (46.1%)
The narrative that Josh Allen has been carrying the Buffalo Bills offense on his back over the last few weeks is only partially true. Since Week 11, James Cook has been the RB6 in half-PPR scoring with over 16 points per game. The one dud in Week 14 is sticking in managers’ minds for some reason, but he has been excellent outside of that game. His 25.8 fantasy points were third among all running backs in Week 15.
Running back might be the hardest position to fill in Guillotine Leagues as we get near the finish line. We need a reliable floor of touches, goal-line opportunities, and full-time snaps. Cook should have these against the New England Patriots, one of the worst defenses in 2024. Only the Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans, and Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed more than the 16 total touchdowns given up by the Patriots.
Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints (0.1%)
Alvin Kamara’s managers might be scrambling for a replacement this week, and one of the best options might just be on his own team. Kendre Miller would be the fill-in if Kamara’s groin injury prevents him from playing on Monday night. Another reason Miller might be the best possible fill-in for Kamara is that managers in Guillotine Leagues might not have clarity of Kamara’s status by the time games kick off on Sunday. If other great running backs are hoarded in your league, leaving you with minimal options, a Kamara-Miller hammer on Monday night would be just what those teams need.
In the two games Miller has played in his career without Kamara, he has recorded 14 touches for 79 yards and a touchdown and 16 touches for 90 total yards. That kind of floor-plus-ceiling combo is exactly what competing teams in Guillotine Leagues need at this point when faced with injury uncertainty.
Wide Receivers
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (12.5%)
The Philadelphia Eagles put their passing game concerns to rest on Sunday when Jalen Hurts threw for 290 yards and two touchdowns while making both DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown happy with more than 100 yards and a touchdown each. Smith had been on an up-and-down trajectory in weeks leading up to this game, but he showed he is part of a very narrow passing tree in Philly and is worth rostering in Guillotine Leagues.
There were 31 total targets for the Eagles against the Steelers last week. Of that number, 23 of them went to Brown and Smith. Next up is a date with the Washington Commanders who have allowed 15 passing touchdowns to wide receivers in 14 games and give up over 11 passing yards per completion the last three weeks. That is a bottom-10 mark in the NFL over that span.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (22.4%)
Is Jordan Addison going to have 133 yards and three touchdowns again this season like he did in Week 14? Unlikely, but what has been encouraging lately for Addison is his usage and the Vikings’ commitment to the passing game. Addison has 36 targets over the last four games (he has more targets than Justin Jefferson in that span) and the Vikings are throwing 62% of the time during the previous three weeks. Next up, Addison has Seattle who allowed Romeo Doubs to score twice, and Christian Watson to get open for several massive plays.
Addison is now up to a 22% target share and a 30% air yards share on the season. Darnold has developed an unbelievable connection with him and Justin Jefferson, and I think that continues in Week 16.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions (18.6%)
In recent weeks, Sam LaPorta has evolved back into the top tight end option that he was for all of the 2023 season. Over the last three games, LaPorta is the TE7 in half-PPR scoring including season-highs in targets (10), receptions (7), and receiving yards (111) last week. The Chicago Bears are a bottom-10 team against tight ends this season and have allowed 866 receiving yards, fifth-most in the NFL through the season’s first 15 weeks. Only Amon-Ra St. Brown has more targets over the last three weeks among all Detroit Lions players. Roster him with confidence in Guillotine Leagues if you don’t have a top-five option.
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