“We were all three annoyed with each other,” German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said in the Bundestag, the country’s parliament, just a few hours before the three-party ruling coalition, which includes his Greens, was dismissed in a no-confidence vote.
That is an understatement. The so-called traffic-light coalition under outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, from the Social Democratic Party (SPD), seemed to spend more time bickering with itself than with the opposition. When Scholz sacked his finance minister, the liberal FDP party chief Christian Lindner, last month, he triggered the confidence vote, which he lost on Monday. It paves the way for early elections next 23 February. Few will mourn the coalition’s collapse.
German voters will head to the polls in an increasingly uncertain moment. The country’s economy is in a slump, inflation is high, US President-elect Donald Trump is threatening trade tariffs, and Berlin is under pressure to crank up its military support for Ukraine.
Germany is set to hold early elections in February after Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government was dismissed in a no-confidence vote in the Bundestag on Monday (Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)This election is not just about Germany, though. When Europe’s largest economy sneezes, everyone else catches a cold. But this time, the stakes are even higher, with implications ranging from EU stability to the global economy.
The no-confidence vote in Berlin came just 11 days after French parliamentarians voted down the government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, handing President Emmanuel Macron a new setback as he aimed to reassert his waning domestic authority.
Yet Macron remains active on the European stage. Under the overly cautious, self-effacing Scholz, Germany has been virtually absent from the European conversation. But the so-called Franco-German motor is considered indispensable for driving the EU. While Macron might imagine himself as Europe’s natural leader, he still needs a steady partner in Berlin.
The German economy, Europe’s powerhouse, will also be under the microscope. The world is grappling with inflation, energy crises, and the green transition, and Germany is no exception. The election will likely decide how much Germany is ready to bet on renewable energy, and how much it is willing to spend to keep its industrial sector afloat. Will the next government double down on subsidies for green tech, or will it try to claw back some fiscal conservatism in the face of ballooning public debt?
And then there’s Ukraine. Germany’s election could reshape the Western response to Russia’s ongoing war. Scholz promised a Zeitenwende — or turning point — after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 but has held back on supplying crucial weaponry.
Ukrainian civilians wearing military uniforms take part in training organized by soldiers from the Third Separate Assault Brigade in Kyiv (Photo: Tetiana Dzhafarova/AFP)All three coalition partners are facing historic losses: surveys put Scholz’s SPD at 16 per cent, the Greens at 13 per cent and the FDP at four per cent (below the five per cent threshold to enter parliament).
The conservative CDU-CSU alliance, currently at around 32 per cent, is expected to emerge victorious, followed by the far-right AfD party at 18 per cent.
CDU chief Friedrich Merz is almost certain to become the next Chancellor. He is a staunch supporter of Ukraine and wants to deliver long-range missiles to Kyiv. His plan to revitalise the economy is through a pro-business agenda that includes lower taxes, less regulation and fewer state handouts. He is also more hostile to immigration, with critics saying that his recent remarks on sending Syrian refugees back echo far-right talking points.
He will still need a coalition partner, which could mean either the SPD or the Greens. If he does turn to the SPD – as his CDU predecessor Angela Merkel did many times in her 16 years as Chancellor – it is unlikely to be with Scholz. During the Bundestag debate, Merz lambasted the SPD leader: “You are embarrassing Germany,” Merz said, adding that it was “shameful” how Scholz was seen by other EU leaders.
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He could get his wish: SPD officials are mulling whether to ditch Scholz before the election. The outgoing Chancellor is now so unpopular that some in his party are urging him to follow US President Joe Biden’s example and step aside for someone else, like the SPD’s affable Defence Minister Boris Pistorius. That could lay the ground for a new right-left coalition — although, given how fractious the last one was, Germany will not be holding its breath for a more harmonious political era.
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