Cubs Are “For Sure” Looking at Free-Agent Closer Kirby Yates ...Middle East

KIRBY YATES, CUBS TARGET – After the Kyle Tucker trade set us all up for a nice weekend, everyone was trying to figure out what the Chicago Cubs would do next. And while our focus has generally landed on the two trades that appear to be at or near the one-yard-line (Cody Bellinger to the Yankees, Jesus Luzardo to the Cubs), there’s also nearly all of free agency left to go.

Last week, Jed Hoyer indicated that he prefers to work through all of his trade options before moving back into the free-agent half of the market, but that part definitely is still coming. And I think free agency is where the Cubs will try to land their closer/back-end relief target. To that end, an update.

Kirby Yates is a Cubs Free-Agent Target

Almost two weeks ago, Bruce Levine hopped on 670 The Score to identify four free agents of interest to the Chicago Cubs: catchers Carson Kelly (who has since signed with the Cubs) and Danny Jansen, plus relievers Andrew Chafin and Kirby Yates.

This morning, Levine was back on The Score, adding a little more fuel to the Kirby Yates’ fire, as well as some additional context on his suitors: “Kirby Yates … is being looked at by 4-5 teams, and I think the Cubs are one of them, for sure.”

Yates, 37, is no spring chicken, but 2025 is not necessarily a year to prioritize the long term. After adding Kyle Tucker (for just one year) every marginal victory the Cubs can add is increasingly valuable. And a closer, in particular, is one of those positions whose impact often feels disconnected (in either direction) from the nominal “WAR” total they get at the end of the year. Bottom line, if you plan on contending in 2025 – and the Tucker trade suggests the Cubs do – then you need a closer, preferably someone with experience. Full stop.

Whether or not Kirby Yates is that guy is a different question, but I can definitely see the appeal. Indeed, if the Cubs think Yates can come anywhere close to recreating his DOMINANT 2024 campaign next year, it’s worth getting him in the door (2024 stats): 61.2 IP, 1.17 ERA, 1.81 xERA, 2.50 FIP. And just look at these peripherals.

Relief Leaderboard – Peripheral Stats (min. 60 IP)

The flip side, of course, is that Yates, 37, is fairly old and has had a rough couple of years as his walk rate has exploded:

That said, Yates missed almost all of 2020 with a shoulder injury and then missed ALL of 2021 and most of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. So when you look at it that way, his re-emergent 2023 campaign (3.28 ERA, with his velocity returned, but weaker peripherals) and dominant 2024 season is actually a pretty good sign. He’s two full seasons removed from surgery and delivered on all fronts in his walk year. His walk rate, while still elevated, also trended down and his velocity was fairly normal (relatively speaking) for this stage of his career.

The age and injury history is a risk. Can’t deny that. But Yates saved almost as many games last year by himself (33) as the Cubs did as a team (38). Conversely, Hector Neris, Adbert Alzolay, Drew Smyly, and Porter Hodge had more blown saves last season (16) than Yates has had in his entire career (14) …. and the Cubs had another nine players blow a combined 10 more saves last season, just FYI.

Ultimately, I like Kirby Yates as a closer target for the Cubs. Tanner Scott is out there, but is going to get $50M+ over four years, which is just not something Jed Hoyer likes to do.

And while I believe in Porter Hodge as much as the next guy, he’s a 23-year-old with ~40 innings of big league experience, even less as the closer. The Cubs gambled on a very similar concept last year with Alzolay and it immediately bit them in the butt. They can’t risk it again this year, they need an arm and Kirby Yates on a 1-2 year deal in the $7-10M range seems like the right kind of risk (…again assuming Tanner Scott is a non-starter).

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