REPORT: Cubs, Marlins “Talking Deal” for Jesus Luzardo, Big-time Prospects Included ...Middle East

What started as a throw-away rumor at the end of a national baseball writer’s post on X just grew a whole bunch of legs. And started walking. Let me bring you up to speed.

Last night, Bob Nightengale reported that the Chicago Cubs “remain busy on the trade front” and are “showing interest in Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo.” Brett got into it a bit this morning, but for a number of reasons (the least of which was the lack of specificity and the fact that Nightengale also included a random rumor about a third baseman), we didn’t give it too much thought. That may now have to change.

Jesus Luzardo to the Cubs?

According to Bruce Levine, the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins are indeed discussing a trade for Jesus Luzardo, and specific prospect names are mentioned – good prospects. Guys, you know. Top 100 types on the precipice of the big leagues. Take a look.

Cubs and Marlins talking deal for starter Jesus Luzardo. Marlins want young controllable bat back.James Triantos or Owen Cassie would likely be in the deal.

Well, then. That’s certainly something. James Triantos and Owen Caissie are two of the Cubs’ seven remaining top-100 prospects according to MLB Pipeline, with Caissie (#34) usually considered a better prospect than Triantos (#55). Though they’re both quite good. They’ve also both reached Triple-A in their age-21 season, with the outfielder, Caissie, hitting better than the infielder, Triantos.

Caissie: .278/.375/.472 (121 wRC+)Triantos: .302/.351/.384 (94 wRC+)

Also separating them, besides their defensive position: Caissie hits for a lot more power, but strikes out much more often (28.4% at Triple-A), while Triantos is more of a contact guy, who walks a lot less than Caissie (7.4% vs 12.9%), but virtually never strikes out (9.7 K% at Double-A, 17% at Triple-A). The bottom line? They are two very good, valuable prospects, one of whom (Caissie) is already on the Cubs 40-man roster.

So why would the Cubs trade either guy AT ALL, let alone for Jesus Luzardo? Well, generally speaking, you can’t keep all of your prospects. And even though the Cubs just traded Cam Smith in the deal for Kyle Tucker, they still have seven top-100 prospects and a bit of an outfield glut between their current big-leaguers (Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cody Bellinger, Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki) and their prospects (Kevin Alcantara, Alexander Canario, and Caissie).

Likewise, Matt Shaw is ahead of James Triantos on the infield depth chart, but they’re both behind at least Nico Hoerner at the big-league level.

There could be more movement that opens things up (Hoerner and Bellinger are both heavily rumored trade candidates). But that’s just a general point about the reality of a minor league system producing a lot of positional talent at the highest levels of the minors.

On a slightly more specific level: After trading for just ONE SEASON of control over Kyle Tucker, the Cubs have a clear motivation to push in further for 2025. And we’ve routinely pointed to impact starting pitching as an obvious target of those motivations.

Now, with all of that said, let’s get to the more important question: Is Jesus Luzardo, specifically, the right target? And is he worth someone like Owen Caissie?

Those are both difficult questions to answer. Personally, I have a hard time with the idea of trading Owen Caissie for someone like Jesus Luzardo, who, while good with immense upside, has been inconsistent and hurt throughout his career, including last season.

Depending on him to be THE guy to give you 120+ impact innings next year is a serious gamble, regardless of the return. Lance Brozdowski puts it succinctly here, and I tend to agree:

In 2024, Luzardo had a mild flexor strain and a lumbar stress reaction in his back.This is a bet on the #Cubs pitching department to tweak with an eye on health (easier said than done).100% worth the risk, but my guess is that Caissie isn???t moved. t.co/Z4ODvneHla

Do I like Luzardo in a vacuum? Yes, of course. He is a former TIP TOP prospect who has made it work at the big-league level before. For example, in 2023, Luzardo posted a 3.58 ERA over 32 starts with 3.8 WAR and an excellent 28.1% strikeout rate (7th best in MLB). He’s also a hard thrower (96 MPH), who is still just 27 years old and comes with two affordable years of team control.

But last year was a bit of a disaster, both because of the overall results (which, to be fair, are skewed by three EXTREMELY bad outings) and the injuries. Trading for him is a gamble. It just is. It’s just that the upside is legitimate ace-caliber stuff, which is exactly what the Cubs are missing. That’s why names like Caissie and Triantos are being discussed in the first place.

But unless the Marlins are kicking in something more – say, a late-inning reliever – I don’t think I can quite condone dealing Caissie for this level of risk. Triantos would be more tenable, but even he should have plenty of value.

Backing up a bit, let’s not forget that even if these talks are happening, they are but one of many irons in the fire. The Cubs have already been connected to a number of reportedly available impact starters – Luis Castillo most frequently – and there are still others (Dylan Cease) that could be available for the right price.

The Cubs could just be doing their due diligence or they could be serious. OR this could all be a leverage play, with the Cubs trying to push the Mariners into lowering their ask for Castillo. Either way, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: The Cubs are quite serious about trading for a starting pitcher, and based on the prospect names that have been kicked around, that guy is likely to be a hard-thrower with top-half-of-the-rotation upside.

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