Travis Hunter made history as the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner, and he might have reset the market for betting on the Heisman.
The former 2-way Colorado star became the first full-time Heisman winner to feature on both sides of the football since the 1960s. He became the first non-quarterback to win the award since 2020, and just the fourth since 2000. What’s more: no one from the SEC finished in the top 10 in Heisman voting for the first time since 2005.
SEC quarterbacks have the 2 shortest odds at BetMGM of any player in the country to win the Heisman next season. Twelve players have +2500 or better odds at BetMGM, and 5 of them are SEC passers.
Summer odds from sportsbooks are suggesting that Hunter’s win was a one-off.
Was it?
Here’s who I’d consider backing in the preseason to win the Heisman Trophy.
Odds to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy
Arch Manning, Texas QB — +600 Garrett Nussmeier, LSU QB — +850 Cade Klubnik, Clemson QB — +900 Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State WR — +1000 Drew Allar, Penn State QB — +1400 LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina QB — +1800 Dante Moore, Oregon QB — +1800 Julian Sayin, Ohio State QB — +1800 DJ Lagway, Florida QB — +1800 Carson Beck, Miami QB — +2500 John Mateer, Oklahoma QB — +2500 Sam Leavitt, Arizona State QB — +2500odds via BetMGM
The Favorite — Garrett Nussmeier
Betting on the outright preseason favorite is bad business when it comes to the Heisman Trophy. Of the last 6 winners, only 1 was part of the preseason top 3.
Last year’s top 3 were Dillon Gabriel (Oregon), Carson Beck (Georgia), and Quinn Ewers (Texas). Neither Beck nor Ewers finished top 10 in voting. Gabriel was a distant third in a 2-man race despite throwing for a career-best 3,857 yards and 30 touchdowns on an unbeaten Big Ten champion.
Ashton Jeanty threatened to break Barry Sanders’ rushing record. Hunter played well on both sides of the ball and captivated a large percentage of the sport’s viewership. But it also helped that no quarterback had a truly elite season. No one did what Jayden Daniels did the year prior.
When Daniels won the award in 2023, he produced 40 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns.
When Caleb Williams won the Heisman in 2022, he had 42 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing scores.
When Bryce Young won it with Alabama in 2021, he had 47 passing scores and 3 rushing scores.
Sensing a theme here? Of the last 8 quarterbacks to win the Heisman, 7 of them produced 50 total touchdowns during their respective seasons. Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield is the only winner to fall short of the 50-score threshold. (He finished the 2017 season with 48.)
If we’re backing a quarterback, LSU passer Garrett Nussmeier is my favorite among the favorites. He has the best path to 50 touchdowns of anyone.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning would be much more interesting as a darkhorse. Frankly, he’s remarkably overpriced as the outright favorite. Sam Ehlinger (2018, 2019) is the only Texas quarterback to produce a 35-touchdown season since Colt McCoy left town. Expecting Manning to do so in his first season as a full-time starter is a lot.
Klubnik has the rushing ability to make a 40/10 season a possibility, but Nussmeier has the volume to touch 50 scores purely as a passer. Syracuse’s Kyle McCord was the only FBS passer who threw it more often than Nussmeier last season. LSU’s quarterback averaged 40 pass attempts a game, and I don’t expect that number to dip much in 2025.
Nussmeier also has an elite crop of receivers to throw to. The Tigers have 5 wideouts who would start on another power conference team. Watch out for Oklahoma transfer Nic Anderson. As a freshman in 2023, Anderson averaged 21 yards a catch and brought in 10 touchdowns in 13 games. Last season, he missed all but 1 game with an injury. Assuming he’s healthy, Anderson could be a major weapon.
LSU’s leader checks all the boxes I’m looking for with a Heisman-contending quarterback. He’s on a team that should contend for a Playoff spot, he has major statistical upside, and he has enough help to actually put up big numbers.
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The Darkhorse — Jeremiah Smith
Ohio State wideout Jeremiah Smith is who I’m backing in the preseason. Last season, we saw Hunter drive the Heisman conversation by completely dominating the narrative. Set aside the raw talent; from a statistical standpoint, he had a good-not-great receiving season and a good-not-great season as a defensive back. Because he did both simultaneously, he was a favorite among sportswriters and outpaced Jeanty in voting. Jeanty would have been a deserving winner.
Sometimes the narrative is just too loud. And Smith is already a nationwide favorite. As a true freshman wideout, he was one of the most impressive players in college football. He finished the season fourth in receiving (1,315 yards) and tied for second in receiving scores (15). If he’s better in 2025 and his numbers climb, Smith will be the most talked-about player in the sport.
Look to DeVonta Smith’s 2020 Heisman season. The former Alabama wideout had 117 receptions and 23 touchdowns in 13 games. He averaged 142.8 yards per game. Neither Smith’s yardage total nor his touchdown total set a single-season record. He didn’t even break into the top 3 for either. But what he lacked in historical greatness, he made up for with incredible moments. He had 167 yards and 2 scores against Georgia in a win. He had 203 yards and 4 scores against Mississippi State. He had 231 yards and 3 scores in a win over LSU on the road.
Smith will garner undivided attention from defenses in 2025, but there weren’t many defensive backs who could body up and take away the 6-3, 215-pound receiver as a freshman. If he’s bigger, if he’s stronger, Smith will have days when he gets his numbers regardless of the attention.
He should also get a larger target share with Emeka Egbuka gone. If Smith pops off for 140-plus yards in the opener against Texas, a realistic Heisman campaign will ignite.
Ohio State has back-to-back road games against Illinois and Wisconsin in October. It hosts Penn State to open November and closes the regular season at Michigan. If Jeremiah Smith does what DeVonta Smith did in 2020 — produce massive moments in his team’s biggest games — he should have enough buzz to contend for a Heisman Trophy.
The Sleeper — DJ Lagway
Second-year Florida quarterback DJ Lagway might have the most boom potential of any player in college football next season. He has a cannon for an arm and was constantly hunting the deep ball last season. Though there are pieces of his game that need to grow, if Lagway is just as explosive in 2025 as he was in 2024, there’s a chance he can make a run at the award regardless of how well Florida does on the whole.
As a first-year player, Lagway posted a big-time throw rate of 10.1% on his dropbacks and a turnover-worthy throw rate of just 2.6%, per PFF. He also had an average depth of 12 yards on all targets. He was one of the best passers in the country when throwing more than 20 yards downfield, with a PFF passer grade of 95.6 and a completion percentage of 52.8%.
Lagway was an elite dual-threat quarterback in high school before the ankle and shoulder injuries dampened things. The shoulder injury lingering into this offseason means Billy Napier might not be interested in running him at all in 2025. Lagway carried it more than 5 times in a game only once last season. But if Lagway is healthy, and Florida does want to use his dual-threat ability, could Lagway produce 40 total touchdowns in 12 games?
That would be a massive leap considering he only threw for 12 last year, but it’s not totally out of the question. At 5% implied odds, taking a swing on a guy who showed in Year 1 that no moment was too big and no throw was off the table isn’t a bad idea.
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