The Broncos feature an alphabet soup of players – D.J., P.J, RJ, A.T., JL, JB – but they were not A-OK at RB.
Hello, J.K.
As in Dobbins.
This is a lower-case move in June. But it will be ALL CAPS by January, helping explain why the Broncos won their first division title since 2015.
The guarantee comes with a caveat – if healthy.
It is impossible to overstate how much faith coach Sean Payton has placed in Beau Lowery, the vice president of player health and performance. The Broncos’ four biggest offseason acquisitions — inside linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoe Hufanga, tight end Evan Engram and Dobbins — represent upgrades but have medical files that could fill a season of Grey’s Anatomy.
As the Broncos attempt to take the next step, they are taking a huge risk. Even though the Broncos rank among the fewest missed games and practices over the past two seasons, it is fair to wonder if these players can stay on the field.
Beau, in many ways, is as important as Bo. Time to replace those horseshoes with rabbit’s feet, Broncos Country. Especially when it comes to Dobbins.
Denver will manage if its new safety and sideline-to-sideline linebacker miss games. And Payton has shown his offense can score 23 points a week with tight ends you would never draft for your fantasy team.
But the Broncos are not passing the Chargers and Chiefs without Dobbins playing a major role. He represents a missing piece for an offense whose running backs aspired to mediocrity last season.
Dobbins is a more dynamic version of Javonte Williams, ranking 11th in the NFL with 27 runs of 10-plus yards in 2024, per Pro Football Focus. Nix was Denver’s most explosive runner as a rookie. That won’t work. And worse, it will prevent the type of balance necessary for Nix to reach his ceiling.
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The Broncos wanted an Ohio State running back as the draft unfolded. The preference became Dobbins over TreVeyon Henderson when they opted against trading back into the first round to get Henderson after Texas cornerback Jadhae Barron fell into their lap at No. 20 overall.
They waited and selected R.J. Harvey, likely sensing they had Dobbins in their back pocket. And that’s what happened when Nick Chubb set the market by signing with Houston. Dobbins followed suit with a slight bump.
This represents chess, even if it has the potential of an embarrassing swing-and-miss. Dobbins has played 37 games and missed 46.
Because Payton and general manager George Payton hit on their first two draft classes together, they were in position to make strategic — not desperate — free-agent signings.
This is what good teams do. The Broncos are improving on the margins in order to end the Kansas City Chiefs’ nine-year run of dominance. When Payton was lured out of retirement, the goal was never to turn the Broncos around. It was to deliver championships.
“Correct,” he confirmed bluntly after a recent practice.
So, after winning 10 games but getting skunked in the playoffs, he is now grading his third Broncos roster on a curve. Can this player help the Broncos win now? That is what led him to Dobbins.
The Broncos are better with him. And none of the reasons involve the eye-rolling “experience for the locker room.” That is overrated if a player isn’t any good (See Clark, Frank).
First, the Broncos realize the importance of a fast start after squandering their opening two games last season. Dobbins is Mr. September. He averages 5.72 yards per carry in the first month.
He also played 314 snaps in the passing game a year ago with the Chargers, 102 where he did not run a route. He is a proven protector, caulking to prevent an unmanned defender from leaking into the backfield and crushing Nix. The Broncos would never admit it, but if they trusted Harvey, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie and Audric Estime in these spots, Dobbins would not be here.
And finally, Dobbins has a nose for the end zone. He scored nine touchdowns in 2024. That is two more than Williams, Estime, McLaughlin and Badie combined. He also boasts 16 career touchdowns inside the opponent’s 10-yard line and delivers 4.76 yards per pop on first down in his career. Compare that to Williams’ 3.8.
Saying all of this about Dobbins, we can’t ignore what happened in the past two drafts. Wasn’t Harvey supposed to feature Darren Sproles traits? And in his second season, shouldn’t Estime be drawing comparisons to a poor man’s Marshawn Lynch?
Harvey is built to run between the tackles and has shown promise as a receiver out of the backfield. Ideally, he develops and begins sharing early-down snaps with Dobbins by the middle of October.
As for Estime, he is going the wrong way. He will get opportunities to prove himself in camp, but he is running uphill to make the team, often a third or fourth option in reps behind McLaughlin and Badie in minicamp.
Maybe the Broncos are going from one starter who wasn’t good enough to another who isn’t good enough. Or maybe, a healthy Dobbins will be the reason the Broncos win the AFC West.
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