Deutsche Bank expect ECB to cut on June 5, but path to 1.5% terminal rate now less certain ...Middle East

However, analysts at DB warn that convincing more hawkish Governing Council members to support the move may require signaling a degree of patience on further cuts. Deutsche is holding to its terminal rate forecast of 1.50% but acknowledges that growing macroeconomic resilience and a looming ramp-up in defence spending may limit the ECB’s scope to ease further.

The analysts say that if the trade war dampens growth in the second half and disinflation trends hold, a September cut to 1.75% would be justified. But whether the ECB will go as far as 1.50% before year-end is increasingly uncertain. Recent developments have raised the risk that the easing cycle could stop short of that level, with Deutsche concluding that the policy outlook remains highly fluid.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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