Going into Week 11 of the 2024 college football season, there were 5 unbeaten teams ranked in the Top 25 — Oregon, Miami, Indiana, BYU, and Army.
The Hurricanes were knocked off that weekend by Georgia Tech, 28-23, after flirting with disaster for weeks. The following week, BYU was upset by Kansas 17-13 for its first defeat of the season. Then, in Week 13, Indiana and Army were smoked by Ohio State and Notre Dame, respectively, for their first losses of the season.
And then there was 1. Oregon rallied in the fourth quarter of its penultimate regular-season game to beat Wisconsin on the road. Then it came home and, after a bye week, bullied Washington to cap a perfect regular season.
Last May, around this same time, Oregon was 1 of 4 teams I identified as teams that had a better chance of going unbeaten than what Vegas was giving them credit for. I picked Notre Dame, which would have done so if not for a walk-off loss at home to NIU. I picked Miami. And I threw Mizzou a bone as a longshot team that could run the table with a favorable schedule.
So let’s run the same exercise back again and try for a better result. I loved Miami last offseason and, though I was largely right in predicting Mario Cristobal’s group to be an ACC contender, I still got burned by Cristobal’s inability to close. Avoid Miami at all costs going forward. Lesson learned.
Below, you’ll find 4 schools that could run the table and go 12-0 during the regular season. There are certainly other options, but these are the teams I’d bet on right now.
And you can do the same at DraftKings. All odds you find below are via DraftKings.
Odds to go unbeaten in the 2025 college football regular season
TeamOddsOhio State+400Notre Dame+400Oregon+425Penn State+450Texas+500Georgia+550Alabama+550Clemson+550Boise State+800Miami+900Kansas State+1000Ole Miss+1100Arizona State+1100Michigan+1200LSU+1400BYU+1400Texas Tech+1400Louisville+1500Texas A&M+1500Penn State to go unbeaten (+450)
It says something about the way the 2 conferences are structured that Big Ten teams, which play 1 additional conference game per year compared to the SEC, have 3 of the 4 shortest odds currently on the board to go unbeaten. The SEC knows how to give its TV partner more bang for their buck. That league is just much deeper.
The Big Ten produced the only unbeaten team at the power conference level last season and I think Penn State is the team with the best chance to do it again.
The Nittany Lions are the only member of the Big Ten’s contending class that don’t have to acclimate around a new quarterback in 2025. Ohio State and Michigan have to do so with young guys who have never played meaningful games. Oregon has to do so with a slightly more experienced player, but a relatively green passer nonetheless.
In terms of what returns, Penn State is probably best categorized as this year’s version of last year’s Ohio State team. Almost everyone came back to chase a ring. Penn State upgraded its receiver room to offset the loss of Tyler Warren and it probably has the best coordinator duo of any team in the league (maybe the country).
Bill Connelly’s SP+ model has the Nittany Lions ranked third in its preseason ratings. The projected win total is 10.4, the highest of any Big Ten team. Penn State has an Indiana-like cushy nonconference schedule and it hosts Oregon early in the season for its White Out game.
“Maybe a road trip to Kinnick will be hard. Maybe Indiana can give Penn State a game.” Nope. Penn State will either be 11-1 or 12-0 at the end of the regular season. It comes down to what happens on Nov. 1 when James Franklin takes his title-contending team to Ohio Stadium.
During the last 3 regular seasons, Penn State is 31-0 against opponents not named Michigan or Ohio State. The Nittany Lions don’t play Michigan in 2025, and the gap between the Penn State/Ohio State/Oregon/kinda-sorta-Michigan tier and everyone else is cavernous.
Franklin’s entire coaching career comes down to the Ohio State game on the opening day of November. Can he end an 8-game losing streak to the Buckeyes? If he can’t, he’ll get the same kind of heat Ryan Day got after losing to Michigan last fall. There’s nothing else for Penn State to prove in the regular season.
But I don’t believe that means Penn State will slack off. I think we’ll see a motivated Penn State team, led by Drew Allar and Dani Dennis-Sutton, that tears through the early part of its schedule as it seeks to prove a point prior to the Ohio State trip. If Penn State wins that game, this cashes.
Is there a better-than-18% chance Penn State wins that game? Even as a Franklin skeptic, I believe that answer is yes.
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CLAIM OFFERNEW USER BONUSBET $5GET $300BET NOW!Alabama to go unbeaten (+550)
Just like last season, I’ll preface this SEC pick by saying I don’t think a team in this league goes unbeaten. The conference is once again too good, once again too talented at the top, and once again equipped with a dynamite league slate.
Texas plays Georgia on the road and opens the season in Columbus against Ohio State. Georgia has games against Tennessee, Alabama, Florida, and Texas. LSU has what SP+ believes to be 1 of the 10 hardest schedules in America. Alabama has Georgia, Mizzou, South Carolina, and Auburn all on the road.
But I’ve seen this once before with Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb, and I believe they can create some more magic with the right quarterback. Their offensive system is darn near unstoppable with the right collection of receivers, and Alabama has the right collection of receivers.
Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton form an outstanding trio. Williams and Horton are big-body, big-play guys who can bully defensive backs. The defense should be outstanding.
Preseason SP+ numbers have Alabama ranked second in the country. Georgia is ranked fourth. If I’m taking a shot on an SEC team to go unbeaten, I’m backing 1 of the 2 guys who just did it a couple of seasons ago (DeBoer and Kirby Smart).
Texas late in the year for Georgia scares me a bit more than a team like LSU for Alabama. Games against the Gamecocks and the Tigers will be tricky, but I think Alabama has the defense to cause problems for both of those passing attacks.
In April, I called Alabama a massive wild card in the SEC and national title pictures because of the gigantic question mark at quarterback.
The Tide ranked 32nd in EPA per dropback with Jalen Milroe at the controls, per Game on Paper. DeBoer’s last Washington team ranked ninth. Decision-making was an adventure and Milroe struggled with the intermediate parts of the attack that kept the team on schedule. He had a 60.3 passer grade (per PFF) on throws between 0 and 9 yards, the fourth-worst of any SEC passer with at least 50 attempts. He threw 5 interceptions on passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
Part of what made Grubb special at Washington was that he had answers for any problem the defense presented. And he had a passer who could hit the home run but also knew when to keep the chains moving. If Alabama has that kind of a quarterback in 2025, watch out. Alabama might not have a 2023 Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, but it could be more talented than the 2023 Washington team everywhere else.
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Clemson to go unbeaten (+550)
Clemson is probably my favorite winner of the offseason. The Tigers returned everyone of significance, headlined by quarterback Cade Klubnik, and added to their defense.
(The Tom Allen hire probably helped both sides. Clemson upgraded its defensive coordinator spot and Penn State arguably did as well. Forced to market by Allen’s departure, Franklin stole Jim Knowles away from Ohio State in a move that could have massive implications on the Big Ten.)
Bill Connelly’s offseason returning production rankings had Clemson at No. 1 in the FBS. The Tigers return 81% of last year’s production, according to Connelly’s calculations, and that high a number has historically meant major year-over-year improvement. Over the last 3 years, Connelly has observed teams that returned at least 70% of their production improved nearly three-quarters of the time, and those that did saw an average SP+ bump of more than 7 points per game.
Clemson was already an ACC champion and a College Football Playoff participant in 2024. I think we’ll see the defense return to its championship level in 2025 under Allen, but I think the offense is what really powers the push back toward the top.
According to Game on Paper, Clemson ranked just 30th last season in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. The Tigers were 39th in success rate. Klubnik is entering his third season working with Garrett Riley and he has each of his top 3 receivers back. I thought Klubnik started to figure things out on the road last season, so I’m looking for even bigger step in 2025.
The Tigers host LSU to open the season. They host SMU and Florida State. To me, the biggest challenger in the ACC is Louisville. That game is on the road, as is the annual matchup with South Carolina. But those are 2 of Clemson’s final 3 games. I think we’ll see a Tiger defense that gets better as the season goes on, and that’ll give Dabo Swinney a major edge.
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CLAIM OFFERNEW USER BONUSBET $5GET $300BET NOW!Arizona State to go unbeaten (+1100)
According to SP+, Arizona State’s strength of schedule in 2025 ranks 61st. The Sun Devils are second in returning production, with all but 3 of the 17 defensive players back who saw at least 200 snaps last season. Cam Skattebo is not a player who can be replaced 1-for-1, but Arizona State might be able to come close to last year’s level of offensive efficiency — eighth in adjusted EPA per play — with improvements in the pass game.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt, wideout Jordyn Tyson, and 4 starters on the offensive line are back. Leavitt was really bright in his first year as a full-time starter, finishing 18th nationally in EPA per dropback. He rarely put the ball in danger and made defenders miss with his legs. After the work Kenny Dillingham did with Bo Nix at Oregon, I trust there will be improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 for Leavitt in this system.
ASU has a more than manageable nonconference schedule. It doesn’t play Kansas State or BYU in conference play, and it gets Texas Tech at home. The trip to Salt Lake City comes off a bye week and the trip to Ames to face Iowa State comes a week after a potential blowout of Houston.
Arizona State’s close-game magic last year (6-1 in 1-score games) meant it slightly outperformed its expected win total. But if Leavitt takes a step and truly becomes one of the top passers in the FBS, ASU might not find itself in a ton of close games.
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