Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Sen. John Cornyn (R) by 9 points in their upcoming Republican primary battle for the state’s Senate seat next year, according to a new survey.
The poll — from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University — showed Paxton leading in a hypothetical two-way contest with 43 percent to Cornyn’s 34 percent and 23 percent unsure. The results could be another worrying sign for the incumbent lawmaker as he tries to fend off Paxton’s primary challenge, though it is notably closer than when an internal GOP poll showed the senator trailing by 16 points earlier this month.
The more recent poll showed Paxton also with advantage in favorability rating, with 68 percent of Republican primary voters viewing him favorably and 22 percent viewing him unfavorably. Meanwhile, Cornyn was viewed favorably by 58 percent and unfavorably by 34 percent.
Both candidates have high name recognition with few voters saying they don’t know enough about either to say how they view them.
Pollsters also factored in Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who has been considering his own Senate bid. In a hypothetical three-way race, Paxton still leads with 34 percent and Cornyn slightly closer behind him with 27 percent. Hunt is third with 15 percent, according to the survey.
The one primary scenario tested where Cornyn leads is in a two-way race with Hunt, 39 percent to 31 percent.
But the results further suggest the incumbent may face his biggest challenge yet since he was first elected to office decades ago.
The brewing primary battle between Cornyn and Paxton may serve as a proxy for a wider contest between wings of the state GOP, between establishment figures and hardliners.
Cornyn has slammed Paxton over the legal scrutiny he’s faced throughout his career, while Paxton has argued that he is truly more loyal and more of an advocate for President Trump’s agenda.
Eyes are also on Trump to see if he weighs in on the primary. Half of the respondents said the president endorsing one of the candidates would make them more likely to support them, while 38 percent said it would make no difference.
The results also show a Paxton primary victory could present an opening for Democrats who have been eying Texas for years but have repeatedly fallen short in trying to flip the state.
In a hypothetical general election matchup with former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who was the Democratic nominee for Senate last year and is considering another run, Cornyn leads by 4 points. But Paxton only leads by 2 points.
Cornyn’s leads against other possible Democratic nominees are also larger than Paxton’s.
The poll was conducted from May 9-19 among 1,200 Texas registered voters, including 510 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the entire sample was 2.8 percentage points, while the margin for primary voters alone was 4.3 percentage points.
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