After what could be considered, by any metric, a turbulent first 100 days in office, President Trump may be beginning to hit his stride.
Indeed, after Trump’s approval ratings dropped 14-points between inauguration day and his 100-day mark, his numbers appeared to have stabilized in recent weeks.
From a second term record low approval rating of net-negative-7 points in late April (52% disapprove vs. 45% approve), there has been a 3-point improvement in recent weeks.
Now, one-half of voters (50%) disapprove and 46% approve, per RealClearPolitics polling aggregator.
That may seem like a small improvement, but given the steep fall in approval that followed “Liberation Day,” any stabilization is worth watching, particularly as it appears to be part of a wider trend.
At the same time Trump’s overall job approval hit its lowest point, an Economist/YouGov poll reported that a majority (54%) of Americans felt the country was on the “wrong track” compared to 36% saying the country was on “the right direction.”
The same poll, conducted just days ago, shows that 18-point spread narrowing to 7-points. Slightly less than one-half (49%) of Americans now say the country is on the wrong track, versus 42% who say we’re heading in the right direction.
To be sure, it’s still very early in Trump’s term, and a plurality or majority of Americans still disapprove of Trump’s job performance.
However, voters’ increasing optimism on deeper issues – such as the direction of the country – are notable.
In that same vein, there are signs that as the chaos surrounding Trump’s tariffs cools down, particularly following progress on trade talks with the U.K. and China, how voters feel about the economy is improving in tandem.
Two weeks after inauguration day, Trump’s approval on the economy (47%) was 4-points above water.
In the days following “Liberation Day” it had fallen to net-negative-10 points (43% approve vs. 53% disapprove), per Economist/YouGov tracking polls.
Now, as the stock market recovers from its tariff-induced sell off and an end to the trade war with China is in sight, 45% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy compared to 51% who disapprove, per the latest tracking poll.
In other words, after a 14-point drop in approval on the economy (+4 to -10), Trump has recovered virtually half of the decline.
To that end, there are multiple factors behind Trump’s improving numbers. The most important of those, as always, is the economy.
Trump’s imposition of sweeping global tariffs threw financial markets into a tailspin, and introduced so much uncertainty that many economists predicted an imminent recession.
After a 90-day pause and then the signing of a preliminary deal with the United Kingdom and progress on a new trade deal with China, much of that pessimism has abated.
As I wrote in these pages just weeks ago, the tariffs had turned into a “political tax” on Trump’s ratings, but pausing them, along with progress on trade deals, significantly lowers the political risks.
Similarly, the focus has now shifted to the impending tax bill working its way through Congress, with optimism over lower taxes and more growth-supportive policies.
Moreover, the chaos caused by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency has been considerably reduced.
With Musk stepping away from the government to focus more on Tesla, the constant stream of headlines announcing widespread firings has calmed nerves in Washington and throughout the country.
The final factor behind Trump’s stabilizing numbers is the President himself.
Early in his term, he repeatedly forced himself into the spotlight with provocative statements and actions that gave the appearance of a president determined to blow up the system without any clear or coherent strategy.
Whether it was making public spectacles of deporting migrants to foreign prisons, criticizing federal judges, whipsaw-like tariff announcements, or needlessly provoking allies, Trump seemed intent on garnering as much negative media coverage as possible.
Now, however, things have calmed down.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has taken the lead on trade negotiations, sidelining hardline ideologies like Peter Navarro.
Further, a handful of positive meetings with foreign leaders have shaken the image of Trump as an indiscriminate bully on the world stage, reviving hopes that the U.S. would remain a pillar of stability under this administration.
And while the change in the administration’s tone is appreciated, the improving economic outlook is the real driver of Trump’s improving numbers.
To be clear, it is a mistake to say Trump is out of the woods.
Despite Americans becoming slightly more approving of his handling of the economy, his approval on inflation – a direct byproduct of the tariffs – remains deeply underwater.
The aforementioned Economist/YouGov poll – conducted after reports of a breakthrough in China talks – shows that nearly 6-in-10 (57%) of voters disapprove of how Trump has handled inflation.
Far from being an outlier, two polls, one from CBS News and another from CNN, both show an identical 62% disapproval with the President’s handling of inflation, versus 38% who approve in both polls.
Inflation played a significant role in Trump’s victory last November, and overcoming such widespread disapproval will be critical if he hopes to keep Congress under GOP control.
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That being said, for now at least, Trump appears to be in the very early stages of hitting his stride.
If Trump wants to continue improving his polling numbers, it’s essential that more trade deals be signed, a tax and spending bill be passed, and, ultimately, that Trump delivers on the pro-growth policies he was elected to provide.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
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