Somewhere, Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn will watch this 2025 Illinois team with an ear-to-ear smile. It has been a minute since those 2 legends have had any Illinois team even sniff their Rose Bowl season back in 2007. The 2024 Illinois squad earned the program’s first AP Top-25 finish since that ’07 team with Williams and Benn. Shoot, it was just the 4th time in those last 17 seasons that Illinois even appeared in the AP Top 25 at any point.
Dare I say, Bret Bielema has a team that should be better than both of those squads.
Coming off a 10-win season, Bielema has the No. 3 team in America in percentage of returning production. It could earn its first top-10 ranking in the preseason AP Top 25 since the Lyndon B. Johnson administration (1964), and if all goes according to plan, a Playoff debut will await the Illini at the end of the regular season.
A few things are worth noting before we break down individual Playoff paths. One is that while we’re still in the 12-team era, I’m anticipating a change in 2025. I believe that we’ll get rid of the stipulation that the 4 byes/top-4 seeds will go to the 4 highest-ranked conference champs. One year in, I predict that all parties will get on board with changing that. These rankings, which I’ll roll out over the next 2 weeks, will reflect that anticipated change.
In other words, I won’t try to confuse you with seeding. This will just be based on where they’ll show up in the final Playoff poll. Just in case you forgot what Playoff field entails, here’s a refresher:
5 highest-ranked conference champs 7 at-large teams Seeds 1-4 get a 1st-Round bye Seeds 5-8 get a home Playoff game in the 1st Round Seeds 9-12 get a road Playoff game in the 1st RoundDoes that all sound good? Good.
Here’s the projected 12-team field so far:
No. 12 Boise State No. 11 Louisville No. 10 Texas TechLet’s continue with 9-seed Illinois:
Why the Playoff path exists
A year after Indiana’s well-documented schedule breaks were at the root of every Playoff discussion, I wonder if there’ll be similar vibes with Illinois. Like IU, the Illini will get Ohio State, but it won’t get Oregon, Penn State or Michigan. That’s not to say that it’s a cakewalk schedule. Not many teams have multiple September true road games vs. power conference foes who won 9-plus games. Illinois has that. It also has a game at Washington, where the Huskies haven’t lost since the Jimmy Lake era. It’s tricky, yes.
At the same time, we’re just talking about getting to 10-2 in the regular season. Illinois can make the Playoff even if it loses to Ohio State (and not get demolished), and suffer a competitive loss in one of those tricky games elsewhere. For all I know, that late-November game at Camp Randall will trip Illinois up in Bielema’s return to Wisconsin (I realize he went there and blew out the Badgers back in 2022).
But again, the path exists because it’s a 10-win team that’s loaded with proven returners, especially in the trenches. Illinois returns all 5 starters on the offensive line, and even after losing Josh McCray as a post-spring transfer to Georgia, Illinois still has a lot to like in the backfield. Aidan Laughery emerged down the stretch, and promising 3rd-year back Kaden Feagin is back after a season-ending injury in 2024. That’s a lot to complement QB Luke Altmyer, who is back for Year 3 as a starter. It was a little weird that he announced he was staying at Illinois post-spring after rumored Tennessee interest. Mind you, that was months removed from when Altmyer announced his return while at an Illinois basketball game vs. … Tennessee. But I digress.
HE’S BACK#Illini Luke Altmyer announces, at the first media timeout of Illinois vs No. 1 Tennessee, that he will return next season. pic.twitter.com/v90GrzxtMb
— Glenn Kinley (@glenn_kinley) December 14, 2024Defensively, there’s even more to like with All-Big Ten selections Xavier Scott and Gabe Jacas back. That group finished in the top 1/4 in FBS in scoring defense, and it added some noteworthy transfers, including defensive lineman James Thompson Jr. and Leon Lowery Jr., both of whom were starters at Wisconsin.
Add it all up, and this feels very much like a Bielema Wisconsin team. In Year 5 in Madison, Bielema got Wisconsin a Big Ten title and a Rose Bowl berth. In Year 5 at Illinois, it’s not crazy to think that a 10-win season and a Playoff berth could be in store.
The potential roadblock
I’ll say the quiet part out loud — Bielema’s last time winning 8 games in consecutive seasons was 2011-12. Even worse? Illinois’ last time winning 8 games in consecutive seasons was all the way back in 1989-90. So unless you’re in your 40s, you don’t have any sort of recollection of the best 2-year period for Illinois football in the last 35 years. Do we realize how bad that is? Even Kansas and Vanderbilt have done that in the 21st century. Illinois’ last time starting and finishing as an AP Top 25 team was also back in 1990.
So yeah, history is the potential roadblock.
I know that you can argue that guys like Altmyer and Jacas won’t care about stuff like that, which I get. They weren’t on those teams. It’s still something that lingers going into a season like this, wherein an 8-month offseason shapes perception.
Let’s also not forget that Illinois might struggle to get out of September without multiple losses. I mentioned the games at Duke and Indiana, but don’t overlook that late-September game against USC. Going 9-3 with that schedule will be a tough sell, unless it includes a win against Ohio State. That still might not be enough. Ten is the magic number. For a team that lacks historical success and typically finds itself in a lot of close, low-scoring games — Illinois won 3 games vs. ranked foes last year while scoring less than 24 points — a few tough breaks could be all she wrote on a Playoff run.
Odds that they win a Playoff game
Does 21.5% sound too low?
We’re gonna need to see a road Playoff team keep it within single digits before we start getting that number into the 30s and 40s, even in that 8-9 matchup. In this scenario, that would include Bielema going back to familiar territory in the SEC to face Alabama, who he never beat during his time at Arkansas. But that was a lifetime ago. More relevant in that matchup would be Kalen DeBoer and his 15-3 mark vs. AP Top 25 teams, as well as his 6-1 mark vs. top-10 teams. DeBoer hasn’t lost a home game since Nov. 2021 when he was the head coach at Fresno State.
Take that for what it is. I take it as a reminder that a road Playoff game is no joke. Illinois’ best chance at pulling off an upset would be if that defensive line completely took over and forced some turnovers. Maybe that path exists against an Alabama offensive line that’s got some questions, and it can turn into a 21-17 game. It’ll still be an uphill battle putting points on the board against a Tide defense that could be one of the nation’s best.
But playing a December game with a path to the national championship would be historic on every level for Illinois. As I always say, 21.5% beats 0.0% about 100% of the time.
Predicting the Playoff will continue on Thursday with No. 8 … a traditional SEC power.
Predicting the Playoff: No. 9 Illinois Saturday Down South.
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