How have interest rates expectations changed after the first trade deal? ...Middle East

Fed: 68 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 56 bps (89% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 56 bps (79% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 42 bps (54% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 100 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 71 bps (66% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 35 bps (89% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

BoJ: 13 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

We can see that compared to Wednesday's update, the market is repricing expectations on a more hawkish side across the board. This is because the certainty around the 10% global rate has increased after the US-UK trade deal and it's also the "more hawkish" scenario for the Fed.

We have now reached the peak in the "de-escalation trade" and the focus will likely switch to the language from other countries, especially the EU. Will they take a harder stance and oppose categorically the 10% floor?

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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