The Christian Democrat leader’s flailing arrival came after hours of arm-twisting and favour-banking were needed to turn a six vote deficit in the morning to a narrow endorsement in the afternoon, which had one of his allies sending me a picture of a sweating emoticon and a handkerchief. But a day of high drama in Berlin has reminded us that the days of envy for Germany’s staidly stable politics have passed – it’s rock and roll in Berlin now, as it is across much of Europe.
In theory, Merz should be a better Chancellor for the UK than his wan predecessor Olaf Scholz, who did not seek a large footprint on the international stage, but at least liked Starmer and prepared the route to a reconciliation. Things had really fallen apart pre-Brexit: Angela Merkel had an intellectual default scepticism bordering on superiority complex towards the Anglosphere – and was more at home finessing negotiations on the continent or dealings with Russia than trying to understand or help fractious Britons.
The exam question now is how far a leader whose first steps have been faltering will turn quickly inwards – notwithstanding a grand plan for an EU “reset” summit in which Germany will play a leading role. That is the job of another German – Ursula von der Leyens, as head of the EU Commission – to negotiate, after Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have expended much diplomatic energy to back a plan.
Domestic politics is intruding for both. Merz needs to make his mark, rebooting Germany’s sagging reputation as an industrial giant, built on a suspicious and clearly fragile coalition with the defeated Social Democrats.
Similarities with the Reform surge in the UK are irresistible, in terms of focus on public responses to migration and a Eurosceptic core. The AfD, however, is a far more ferocious entity, despite its slick TV-friendly PR. Many of the rallies I have attended have an edge of intimidation towards political foes and the media it deems an enemy. Nigel Farage has clearly distanced himself from it, even if America’s new Right, embodied by JD Vance, sounds supportive or at least permissive to its shock treatment.
square KITTY DONALDSON
This is Keir Starmer's 'Thatcher, milk snatcher' moment
Read MoreThis is awkward, since the cherished centrepiece of German (and Polish) demands is for a 45,000 strong “Youth Mobility Scheme” to re-foster opportunities for young people. In reality that is hard to define beyond ending up as a visa scheme for people under 35 to live and work in the UK for up to two years, with reciprocal rights.
In Berlin, however, it ranks as a totemic demand, which the UK needs to accept to show seriousness or purpose. The knife-edge vote in a parliament in Berlin whose shaky arithmetic is the result of a rise on right, and the whirlwind of Reform UK’s electoral success, are a reminder that even when there’s a mutual will for a UK-German kiss and make-up, the way to it is harder to chart.
Anne McElvoy is co-host of POLITICO’s Politics at Sam and Anne’s podcast
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