The transfer portal churn has slowed to a trickle, coaching staffs are set, spring practice is finished and the first Saturday of the season is a mere 16 weekends away.
We fed all the roster moves into the Hotline’s supercomputer and set the dial for 10,000 simulations.
Just kidding.
We grabbed the nearest envelope, flipped it over and scribbled out the following update of our mid-January rankings.
1. Clemson
The Tigers are loaded with high-round NFL Draft picks on both sides of scrimmage, possess one of the nation’s top quarterbacks (Cade Klubnik), improved their tactical acumen by hiring defensive wiz Tom Allen away from Penn State and, crucially, have the manageable ACC schedule. Everything points to Dabo Swinney’s program returning to center stage after several seasons in the background. (Previous: 2)
2. Penn State
The top of the Big Ten is loaded, as usual. But Penn State, not Ohio State or Oregon, owns the roster best suited for a run at the national title. The main difference: The Nittany Lions have a returning quarterback, Drew Allar, while their competition is starting over at the position. Also, Penn State swiped defensive mastermind Jim Knowles from the Buckeyes, all of which leaves James Franklin with no excuses in the conference race. (Previous: 3)
3. Texas
The Longhorns are a popular pick for the No. 1 spot in post-spring rankings such as this. And to be sure, Steve Sarkisian’s roster oozes NFL talent. But Texas was hit hard by attrition in the secondary and along the offensive line, and the road schedule is challenging with a season opener at Ohio State and trips to Florida and Georgia. Also, we wonder if Arch Manning has more flaws than the popular narrative suggests. (Previous: 4)
4. Notre Dame
For any other team, a rookie starting quarterback would give us pause. But Notre Dame’s stellar offensive line and dynamic running game, combined with a stout defense, will mitigate whatever learning curve CJ Carr faces as he takes over for Riley Leonard. Don’t mistake the Irish for a one-year wonder — coach Marcus Freeman is recruiting at the level needed to reach the College Football Playoff on a regular basis. (Previous: 5)
5. Ohio State
Some might view this placement as tantamount to rankings blasphemy. After all, the Buckeyes have the best offensive and defensive players in the country in receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, respectively. But the quarterback situation is unsettled, the coordinators are new and we suspect there could be a lingering letdown following an emotional run from the Michigan loss to the national championship. (Previous: 1)
6. Florida
The sizzling finish that moved Billy Napier off the hot seat (temporarily) and set the stage for a breakthrough season by quarterback DJ Lagway (possibly) has given us reason to believe in the Gators (for now). We’ll know whether this outlook is appropriate by the middle of October, after Florida finishes a four-games-in-five-weeks stretch against LSU, Miami, Texas and Texas A&M, with three of the four on the road. (Previous: 10)
7. Oregon
The attrition was heavy in Eugene, where the Ducks sent a school-record 10 players to the NFL Draft. But the roster-building has been of such quality under Dan Lanning, both through the transfer portal and the old-fashioned way, that enough talent remains to fuel another playoff run. Of course, this presumes the Ducks conjure effective quarterback play out of Dante Moore, the first underclassman to start for Oregon since Tyler Shough in the pandemic season. (Previous: 7)
8. Georgia
The Bulldogs weren’t nearly as crisp with the details in 2024 as they typically are under Kirby Smart, and we fully expect that to change in the fall. But the schedule is brutal — again — and any evaluation of presumptive starting quarterback Gunnar Stockton is mere guesswork. Of note: Smart overhauled his receiver room and added Zachariah Branch from USC. But he isn’t exactly a proven commodity when lined up outside. (Previous: 6)
9. Illinois
Led by one of the Big Ten’s top returning quarterbacks, Luke Altmyer, the Illini are poised for a season in the spotlight akin to what Indiana experienced last year. Our conviction is rooted partly in the momentum remaining from 2024, when they won 10 games, and largely in the favorable conference schedule: Bret Bielema and Co. do not play Michigan, Penn State or Oregon. (Previous: 8)
10. Alabama
Our outlook for the Crimson Tide has brightened with the arrival of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who was fired by the Seahawks after one season and will join his former boss, Kalen DeBoer, in Tuscaloosa. The non-conference schedule features Florida State and Wisconsin, while the lineup of SEC foes includes Georgia, Tennessee, LSU and South Carolina. (Previous: 15)
11. Brigham Young
The Cougars were underrated most of last year, both by the pollsters and the CFP selection committee, and the same has been true through the offseason. But with quarterback Jake Retzlaff returning and BYU hungry to take the final step — to the Big 12 championship — we expect the success to continue, and the bandwagon to grow. (Previous: 9)
12. Texas Tech
The second-ranked transfer class in the country features 13 players with four-star ratings and, thanks to NIL money, is located in Lubbock. Add a solid lineup of returnees, and the Red Raiders just might win the Big 12 — a development that would, in fact, be very Big 12. Managing expectations will be critical for a program that hasn’t produced 10 (or more) wins since the Mike Leach era in the late 2000s. (Previous: 11)
13. LSU
The Tigers sit atop the 247Sports transfer portal rankings with an incoming class that features 12 four-star players. Add a gifted, veteran quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, and coach Brian Kelly has everything he needs to silence the critics, contend in the SEC and reach the CFP. The season opener at Clemson will shape everything that follows. (Previous: Not ranked)
14. Miami
When it comes to acquiring talent, few coaches are better than Mario Cristobal. When it comes to maximizing talent, well, let’s leave that discussion for another time. (Previous: 13)
15. Oklahoma
After winning just six games in 2024 and finishing 124th in the FBS in yards per play, the Sooners overhauled their offense with new coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer from Washington State and tailback Jaydn Ott from Cal. Assuming the defense is respectable, Oklahoma should win enough games to nudge coach Brent Venables off the hot seat. (Previous: Not ranked)
16. Louisville
The Cardinal quietly won nine games last season, upset Clemson, then lost quarterback Tyler Shough to the NFL Draft. But a replacement is lined up and ready to roll: Miller Moss, the former USC quarterback who threw six touchdowns in the 2023 Holiday Bowl against … Louisville. No wonder Jeff Brohm was interested in Moss’s services. (Previous: Not ranked)
17. Boise State
The return of quarterback Maddux Madsen will help offset the loss of tailback Ashton Jeanty, but another Mountain West title and ticket to the CFP depend heavily on the Broncos’ success at the line of scrimmage — in particular, filling the void left by defensive end Ahmed Hassanein. The Oct. 4 trip to Notre Dame will offer the same opportunity for resume rocket fuel as the thriller at Oregon provided last season. (Previous: 14)
18. Iowa State
Our apologies if you were told there would be no math, but here’s the equation: Matt Campbell + a veteran quarterback (Rocco Becht) + two key games at home (BYU and Arizona State)=high-level success in Ames. Perhaps even a conference title. (Previous: 18)
19. Nebraska
The Hotline was a year early with our expectations for the Cornhuskers in 2024. Turns out, coach Matt Rhule needed one more recruiting cycle to craft a lineup capable of supporting quarterback Dylan Raiola, find the right playcaller (Dana Holgorsen) and thrive in the Big Ten. (Previous: 24)
20. Arizona State
We don’t doubt that coach Kenny Dillingham’s formula can work once again, especially with a quarterback-receiver combination like Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson. But elevated expectations will change the internal dynamics. The Sun Devils won’t catch anyone by surprise or spend three months playing with house money. And they won’t have Cam Skattebo to erase any mistakes. (Previous: 16)
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We’re taking a bleaker view of the Gamecocks than many, precisely because they are a trendy pick to challenge for the SEC title after their strong 2024 season. That said, quarterback LaNorris Sellers could very well prove us dead wrong. (Previous: 25)
22. Utah
The Hotline would bet the house on a bounce-back season in Salt Lake City with playcaller Jason Beck and quarterback Devon Dampier as the twin sparks arriving from New Mexico, plus a stellar offensive tackle tandem in Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu. But to be clear, the bet would involve your house, not ours. It’s the Big 12, after all. (Previous: 22)
23. SMU
The same challenges facing Arizona State are present with the Mustangs, who must manage expectations and navigate an ACC schedule in which they will get each opponent’s best shot. It’s often more difficult to replicate success than to attain it the first time. (Previous: 23)
24. USC
No team is more interesting than USC when you combine the heat on fourth-year coach Lincoln Riley, the massive roster and staff overhauls and the backdrop of the Big Ten move. This is a gigantic year for the Trojans. The pieces are in place for eight or nine wins — they don’t play Ohio State or Penn State — but only if Riley can get the most out of his roster. (Previous: Not ranked)
25. Michigan
The two-game suspension for coach Sherrone Moore reported on Monday doesn’t dampen our forecast for the Wolverines. We’re assuming the offense improves (better quarterback play) and the defense regresses (heavy losses to the NFL), and those dynamics essentially balance out. (Previous: 21)
*** And five more to watch:
26. Indiana 27. Florida State 28. Tennessee 29. Washington 30. Kansas State
Also considered: Army, Auburn, Baylor, Colorado, Duke, Georgia Tech, Iowa, Marshall, Memphis, Mississippi, Missouri, Navy, Syracuse, TCU, Texas A&M and Tulane.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
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Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Our post-spring Top 25 (plus five) rankings: Clemson, Penn State and Texas lead the way as Ohio State slips, Florida jumps )
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