The Oklahoma City Thunder’s aggressive, disruptive defense and pace-based identity tests the Denver Nuggets’ preference for half-court execution through Nikola Jokic.
This is the matchup everyone was hoping to see.
The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder took different paths to the playoffs. The Nuggets had an up-and-down season while the Thunder were the best team in the league by record and point differential.
Just like last year, the NBA MVP race seems to have come down to Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. While Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to win the award this time around, Jokic had another incredible statistical season that added to his illustrious career.
Between Jokic’s control of every possession and Gilgeous-Alexander’s command of tempo, each star defines the way his team wants to play. But this is the rare playoff matchup in which the team with the MVP might not be the one dictating the terms.
Oklahoma City doesn’t just have the league’s top defense (104.7 defensive rating and first in defensive TRACR by a significant margin), it has one of the best in past 35-plus years. The Thunder’s minus-7.70 D-TRACR (including the playoffs) since 1986-87 ranks fifth behind only the 2003-04 San Antonio Spurs (-9.28), 1998-99 Spurs (-8.58), 2003-04 Detroit Pistons (-8.17) and the 1993-94 New York Knicks (-7.73).
OKC has elevated its performance in the playoffs, leading all teams so far with a 95.9 defensive rating. So the defense is impenetrable and the offense is led by league scoring champion Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7 points per game).
SGA made 1.4 free throws per game more than any other player in the league and boosted his 3-point shooting percentage up to 37.5% while still shooting 57.1% on 2-pointers. He was a weapon everywhere on the court.
Since 1977-78, only two other teams have paired the league’s best defense with its scoring champion: the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls with Michael Jordan (30.4 points per game) and the 1999-2000 Los Angeles Lakers with Shaquille O’Neal (29.7 PPG).
Both won MVP. Both won the title.
If Shai is the rising force, Jokic is the immovable object – already a champion, already a legend. And for now, standing in the way of a Thunder team that believes its time is now.
Defending “Mr. Triple-Double” will be a tall task for Oklahoma City. And no, we’re not talking about Russell Westbrook – the Thunder’s last MVP – now chasing a title in Denver alongside Jokic. We’re talking about the first center in NBA history, and just the third player ever, to average a triple-double for a season.
The three-time MVP is the one player in the league who controls a game more completely than Gilgeous-Alexander. But The Joker does it differently than anyone else in the game with angles instead of explosion; he punishes switches, reads over traps, and prefers patience over pace.
Jokic’s numbers were even better than his third MVP season last year. He averaged 3.5 more points per game and shot a career-best 41.7% on 3-pointers. He also averaged a career-high 10.2 assists per game.
Against Oklahoma City this season, Jokic averaged 24.5 points, 15.8 rebounds, and 11.5 assist in four meetings – one of 17 teams he posted a triple-double average against this season, an absurd measure of consistency. But Oklahoma City was one of only two teams to hold him to a negative plus/minus across those matchups, a rare blemish on an otherwise dominant stat line.
That speaks to the Thunder’s length, discipline and depth – traits that disrupt even the most efficient offenses. No one defender stops Jokic, but Oklahoma City shrinks the floor as a unit, rotates early, crowd passing lanes, and trusts its help.
Jokic is excellent at exploiting weak spots, but the Thunder don’t have weak spots. All seven Thunder players who played 20 or more minutes per game in the first round have a positive defensive DRIP. It’s not about beating Jokic at his game; it’s about tilting the game away from his pace altogether.
As much as this series will be shaped by stars, it may be decided by everything around them.
Oklahoma City enters fresh, healthy and fully in rhythm after a first-round sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies. Denver, meanwhile, is coming off a grueling seven-game battle with the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Nuggets have the experience, a core that’s won a title together and trusts each other when the going gets tough. The Thunder have the energy, the depth, and home court. And with the physical toll of the last round still fresh, it may be Denver – not Oklahoma City – that’s forced to adjust first.
Our projection model gives OKC a healthy 89.3% probability of winning the series. And if it bends toward the Thunder’s pace, they just might dictate the terms – even against Jokic.
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Thunder vs. Nuggets: Can Oklahoma City’s Pressure Limit Jokic’s Ability to Control the Game? Opta Analyst.
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