Fundamental Overview
The end of the Israel-Iran war caused the geopolitical risk premium to vanish and weighed on gold as the safe haven flows reversed further.
In the bigger picture, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing and just a hawkish repricing in rate cuts expectations could trigger corrections in the short term.
The economic data in the next months will be particularly important for the gold market as Fed members sound inclined to cut earlier than expected or even more if the inflation data remains soft or the labour market data deteriorates further.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that gold continues to edge lower towards the major trendline helped also by the end of the conflict between Israel and Iran. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3120 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price bounced around the swing low at 3294 as the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers might want to wait for the price to come into the downward trendline to position for a drop into the major upward trendline with a better risk to reward setup.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 3340 level. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the Final US Q1 GDP report. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index and the Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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